Polling booths have opened in the seat of Dunkley for a by-election expected to show how Australians are feeling just a year before the next federal election.
Labor holds the seat in Melbourne’s outer-southeast suburbs on a margin of 6.3 per cent, but both major parties are playing down expectations.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has spoken of how there’s normally a swing of ‘around seven per cent’ against governments at by-elections, while Liberal Leader Peter Dutton has said it would be difficult for the opposition to pick up the seat.
The by-election won’t change government – Labor has 77 seats in the 151 seat parliament while the coalition has 55 – but the results will be keenly watched when counting starts at the close of polls at 6pm.
Already, about 22,150 people have voted early while 21,900 have applied for a postal vote, the Australian Electoral commission said.
For those who haven’t voted, they have from 8am to 6pm to cast their ballot at one of 32 voting booths in the electorate.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said most governments expect a swing against them at by-elections. He and his fiancee Jodie Haydon are seen greeting Labor candidate Jodie Belyea at Derinya Primary School in Frankston South on polling day
!['It's a big margin. But look, if there was a swing against the government of around three (per cent), then I think that's a terrible outcome for Anthony Albanese,' Mr Dutton told reporters](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/03/01/21/81937339-13147233-PETER_DUTTON-a-1_1709327884808.jpg)
‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was a swing against the government of around three (per cent), then I think that’s a terrible outcome for Anthony Albanese,’ Mr Dutton told reporters
Although the 113,000 voters in Dunkley are the ones casting a vote on Saturday, the seat is representative of more than a dozen other seats across the country that will decide the 2025 general election.
As such, it will be a test of the government’s policies to address the cost of living crisis and its credibility after Mr Albanese broke an election promise to keep the Morrison-government era stage 3 tax cuts as they were legislated.
The government has taken every opportunity to promote how its revamped stage 3 tax cuts – which passed the parliament on Tuesday and come into effect on July 1 – would help more people than the Coalition’s legislated plan which he had promised numerous times not to change.
The opposition has focused on the government’s credibility and how it’s not doing enough to address the issues hurting Middle Australia.
The Candidates
The by-election has been triggered by the death of popular MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year.
Eight candidates are on the ballot, but it will be a contest between the ALP and the Liberals.
Labor’s candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself.
The Liberals have long-term Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy standing.
![The by-election has been triggered by the death of popular Labor MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/03/01/21/81937345-13147233-DUNKLEY_PRE_POLLING-a-4_1709327884817.jpg)
The by-election has been triggered by the death of popular Labor MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year
![Labor's candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself. The Liberals have long-term Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy standing](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/03/01/21/81937341-13147233-DUNKLEY_PRE_POLLING-a-2_1709327884810.jpg)
Labor’s candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself. The Liberals have long-term Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy standing
Mr Albanese said the fight to retain Labor’s 6.3 per cent margin over the electorate would be ‘tough’ but remained firm that Ms Belyea would emerge popular with suburban voters.
‘One of the differences between Jodie Belyea and the other candidates in this by-election is that she’ll be a voice in government. Someone who can get things done as a voice in my government,’ he told reporters.
‘Not just be another bloke, sitting behind all the other blokes … opposing everything, being negative about everything and running fear campaigns.’
Mr Dutton tempered expectations for a Liberal victory after early polls showed his party had a narrow lead in the days leading up to the vote.
‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was a swing against the government of around three (per cent), then I think that’s a terrible outcome for Anthony Albanese,’ Mr Dutton told reporters.
‘The boundaries have changed since a few years ago when we held the seat. So it’s obviously gone into some more Labor territory.
‘But the fact is that Nathan has done a great job in his local community and I think people will be voting for him in big numbers.’
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