Election polls 2024 live: Three experts make shocking final predictions in the election

Veteran political strategist James Carville is standing by his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the election, despite Donald Trump’s momentum in the polls

The architect of Bill Clinton’s victorious 1992 campaign listed three reasons in The New York Times why he thinks the vice president will edge out what could be one of the closest elections in history.

• The GOP has a record of losing since 2018 – including Trump’s loss in 2020 and the two midterm cycles. He argues that Trump has not learned from his election losses and hasn’t done enough to establish a broad enough coaltion to win in 2024.
• Harris has a huge fundraising advantage over Trump. The VP’s campaign has raised more than $1billion since she entered the race, including $360million in September alone.
• He has an emotional feeling, and claims America is not as divided as many perceive.

A vast majority of Americans are rational, reasonable people of good will.

I refuse to believe that the same country that has time and again overcome its mistakes to bend its future toward justice will make the same mistake twice

The historian who’s successfully predicted every presidential election since 1984 reveals his family has been threatened since naming Kamala Harris as his 2024 pick.

Allan Lichtman used his ‘Keys to the White House’ theory in September to forecast that the vice president will take victory over Donald Trump.

The 77-year-old has made the same announcement every election cycle, but the reaction this year has been unprecedented.

Litchman told NewsNation that his family’s safety has been compromised and he’s had to contact the police several times.

‘I’ve been getting feedback that is scurrilous, vulgar, violent, threatening,’ he told Chris Cuomo.

‘I’ve been doing this for 42 years and have been constantly getting criticism,’ he said.

‘But I have never experienced anything like the hate that is being reaped upon me this time.’

Despite the hate, he insisted he still stands by his pick that Harris will prevail in November.

Polling guru Nate Silver maintains that all his models and forecasts have the presidential election as a 50/50 dead heat – but says his ‘gut’ tells him Donald Trump will come out victorious.

One of his main reasons was Trump’s tendency to underperform in polls, and with Silver’s own model showing the candidates just 1.6 percent apart, the pollster said his ‘intuition’ points to the Republican.

Trump’s Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said on CNN that Trump ‘certainly’ has fascist ‘inclinations.’

His comments come after Mark Kelly, the ex-president’s former chief of staff, came out against Trump, saying he’s ‘certainly an authoritarian.’

John Kelly…looked it up in a dictionary…It’s hard to say that he doesn’t when you kind of look at those terms. He certainly has those inclinations, and I think it’s something we should be wary about.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter in Duluth, Georgia

The venue hosting Donald Trump in Georgia on Wednesday displayed messages on screen welcoming him to the wrong state.

‘North Carolina Welcomes President Trump,’ the jumbotrons read ahead of the former president’s arrival to Zebulon, Georgia.

A picture was shared by the press pool traveling with Trump in the days ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

The crowd, according to the reporter, began to whisper about the mistake.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Tim Walz cast his ballot on Wednesday, getting a jump on the election with Minnesota’s early voting.

He brought his 18-year-old son Gus, who was voting for the first time, and wife Gwen.

‘It’s Gus’ first time, he’s pretty excited about it,’ Walz told the poll workers.

Gus, wearing Minnesota fall regalia of a Bemidji State hoodie, sweatpants, and Birkenstock sandals with socks; told his parents he didn’t need any help casting his ballot.

The trio voted in individual booths and then Tim stood with Gus as they fed their ballots into the machine.

An election worker called out ‘first-time voter’ and the room cheered. Tim and Gus high fived.

Walz told reporters he voted for Kamala Harris.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter in Duluth, Georgia

Donald Trump is on stage for a faith-focused town hall in Zebulon, Georgia on Wednesday afternoon.

He is joined by Georgia’s Republican Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at the Believers and Ballots event.

Afterwards, the former president will head to Duluth, Georgia for a rally co-hosted by the conservative group Turning Point, which aims to get younger people involved in politics.

Trump’s visit comes as early voting is well underway in the battleground southern swing state.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Kamala Harris stopped at the Famous 4th Street Deli, one of Philadelphia’s oldest delis, for a Harris-Walz campaign volunteer appreciation event.

Harris was in the city ahead of her town hall with CNN at 9 pm ET.

She shook hands with volunteers and took selfies.

‘I want to just stop by to say I am so grateful for all of you, what you are doing. Everyone has a busy life,’ she told the room. ‘Knock wood, god willing, we are going to win.’

She ordered a pastrami on rye bread and a slice of German chocolate cake to go.

By Geoff Earle, deputy u.s. political editor

Relentless attacks by Donald Trump and his allies are taking a toll on Kamala Harris’s favorability ratings in two critical states.

Harris’s favorability rating is now dead-even in Michigan, 48-48, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. In neighboring Wisconsin, she is slightly underwater, with 46 percent viewing her favorably compared to a 48 percent unfavorable rating.

Trump, who has long been underwater nationally, has a respectable 47 to 48 favorability rating in Wisconsin, essentially the same as Harris. In Michigan, where Harris is performing slightly better, 46 percent view Trump favorably compared to a 52 percent majority who view him unfavorably.

The Rust Belt numbers follow a Gallup poll showing Harris hitting a near record low on favorability nationwide. She began her campaign with positive favorables after stepping in for Joe Biden. She has a 48 percent favorability, below Joe Biden’s 54 percent four years ago. Trump has a 50 percent favorability rating in the poll.

Kamala Harris is getting support on the prediction site Kalshi.

The site said there has been a ‘massive’ influx of backing for the Vice President today.

But Donald Trump is still the clear favorite on the site.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are separated by just a few points in two of the pivotal swing states that will decide the election.

The Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters also shows a glaring gap between genders with less than two weeks left of the campaign.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump with 49 percent compared to his 46 percent. But two percent are backing other candidates.

Women back Harris 57 to 37 percent while men Trump is leading among men 56 to 40 percent.

In Wisconsin, the candidates are tied in a dead heat at 48 percent.

In the battle of the sexes, Harris leads Trump among women 57 to 39 percent while men back Trump 59 to 38 percent.

Morning Joe’s Joe Scarborough launched into a furious rant Wednesday at Republicans and The Wall Street Journal for turning a blind eye to what he called former President Donald Trump’s ‘fascist’ threats.

Scarborough, a former GOP member of Congress, pointed to The New York Times’ interviews with Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who said in a story published Tuesday that Trump met the definition of a ‘fascist,’ would govern like a dictator and had no concept of the Constitution or the rule of law.

The MSNBC host was exceptionally hostile toward The Wall Street Journal, whose editorial board wrote in an op-ed Sunday that the American people weren’t buying the so-called ‘fascist meme,’ which the Journal said was merely a Democratic attack.

‘Two days after saying that, a general who served as Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff said yes, he’s a fascist,’ Scarborough pointed out. ‘The Wall Street opinion page might want to revisit this sneer.’

Mark Halperin says there is a major story circulating that, if true, has the potential to destroy Donald Trump’s campaign.

I know of one story… I don’t believe it is true. But if it’s true, it would end Donald Trump’s campaign.

He made the remarks on his YouTube show called Morning Meeting.

Halperin suggested that the story is being pitched by ‘actors’ who want to influence the outcome of the election and get Kamala Harris elected.

What we’re seeing in the final days are actors who want a certain outcome.

Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a statement on camera to the press Wednesday afternoon, reacting to remarks from former White House chief of staff for President Donald Trump John Kelly.

Kelly revealed in newly published interviews that Trump ‘fit into the general definition of fascist’ and recalled Trump speaking about his desire for loyal generals, the ‘kind of generals Hitler had.’

Harris said it was one more sign that Trump would flaunt the Constitution and use military power to attack his political enemies

‘It is deeply troubling and incredibly dangerous that Donald Trump would invoke Adolf Hitler, the man who is responsible for the death of six million Jews,’ she said.

Harris warned that Trump was ‘increasingly unhinged and unstable.’

In a second term, people like John Kelly will not be there to be the guardrails against his propensities and his actionss. Those who once tried to stop him from pursuing his worst impulses would no longer be there. And no longer be there to rein him in.

Harris warned that Trump wanted ‘unchecked power’ if elected president again.

‘The question in 13 days will be what do the American people want?’ she concluded.

Harris did not take questions from the press.

Longtime Sen. Ted Cruz is in an extremely tight race for his Texas seat.

A new Emerson poll released today shows him within a point of his Democratic challenger Colin Allred.

Cruz needs to keep his seat if Republicans have a shot at flipping the Senate red.

When the Founding Fathers argued about how the newly-formed United States would elect a president, they compromised on a unique system that became known as the Electoral College.

It requires a candidate to reach 270 out of 538 total electoral votes. How that math plays out has changed election by election, candidate by candidate.

For the 2024 contest polling shows that most of the 538 votes are already sewn up by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – but 93 are still up for grabs in seven battleground states.

Each state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress – those in the House and the Senate. There are currently 538 electors in all, including three for Washington D.C., which is represented despite not being a state.

Voters head to the polls on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November – that is November 5th in this year’s election.

Kamala Harris running mate Tim Walz blasted Donald Trump over new on-the-record comments by his former chief John Kelly about Nazi generals.

Kelly told the New York Times Trump met the ‘definition of fascism’ and wanted the ‘kind of generals Hitler had.’

‘It’s just been reported that Donald Trump said ‘I need the kind of generals that Hitler had,’ Walz said at a campaign rally in remarks blasted out by the Harris campaign.

‘As a 24-year veteran of our military, that makes me sick as hell, and it should make you sick. The guardrails are gone. Trump is descending into this madness.’

The Secret Service was facing renewed scrutiny after a suspected drunk driver came dangerously close to Vice President Kamala Harris’ motorcade on Interstate 94 in Milwaukee on Monday night.

A 55-year-old Milwaukee man was driving the wrong way and heading westbound in the eastbound lanes of I-94 – and heading straight toward the vice president’s convoy.

Despite the motorcade’s high level of protection, the driver was able to approach the convoy moments before Milwaukee County sheriff’s deputies intervened and stopped him just in time.

Police say the man had an open bottle of alcohol

in the car he was driving and believed him to be impaired.

Vice President Kamala Harris tried to dodge her position on transgender surgeries on Tuesday evening, saying the decision ultimately rested with doctors, not the government.

‘I believe we should follow the law,’ Harris began during an interview with NBC’s Hallie Jackson who asked her to define her position on the issue.

Jackson interrupted Harris to note that Trump was ‘trying to define’ her with the issue, spending millions of dollars of ads against her on the issue.

‘I’m asking you to define yourself,’ Jackson continued.

‘I believe that people, as the law states, even on this issue, about federal law that that is a decision that doctors will make in terms of what is medically necessary,’ Harris said. ‘I’m not going to put myself in the position of a doctor.’

Kamala Harris is not planning to appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast during a campaign swing in Texas at the end of this week, according to Reuters.

The vice president will be in Houston to discuss abortion rights on Friday but is scheduled to fly straight to Michigan.

It means a stop at Rogan’s studio in Austin is not on the schedule.

Donald Trump is set for an interview with the podcast behemoth this week, but it is now unclear whether Harris will follow suit.

The 2024 presidential election is turning out to be such a nail-biter that a top CNN polling analyst can barely contain his pre-race jitters.

‘Holy cow!’ exclaimed CNN’s Harry Enten as he crunched the numbers on the close contest that gives Donald Trump and Kamala Harris essentially an equal shot at winning, in a race that both call the most important of their lifetimes.

Just how close is the race this time? Nationwide polls as well as state-by-state polling make it the closest in the Electoral College since 1972.

That is the only metric that really matters. Both Hillary Clinton and Al Gore won the popular vote without winning the electoral college, which determines the winner.

A Muslim Democrat says he was removed from a Kamala Harris rally in Michigan without explanation.

Former congressional candidate Ahmed Ghanim was invited to attend the event in Royal Oaks on Monday.

He then says a staff member from the Harris campaign approached him and told him to follow them.

Secret Service agents, he says, then greeted him with local police and told him he had to leave, and didn’t give him a reason.

Harris, during an interview with NBC’s Hallie Jackson Tuesday evening, said that she wouldn’t entertain any ‘concessions’ regarding abortion legislation, including religious exemptions.

I don’t believe we should be making concessions when we’re talking about a fundamental freedom to make decision about your own body.

Her comments quickly garnered backlash from religious conservatives.

Kamala Harris admits she would deny religious exemptions for abortions—forcing Christians to kill unborn children and seemingly doubling down on weaponizing the government to jail pro-lifers who pray outside abortion facilities. Why would any Christian vote for her?

SBA Pro-Life America said that Harris promises ‘freedom’ but then will ‘federally steamroll Americans into taking part in abortions against their will.’

Chairman Ralph Reed of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition added:

So she’s not only pro-abortion, she is anti-religious freedom. Duly noted.

Vice President Kamala Harris will answer questions at a town hall campaign event Wednesday night hosted by CNN and moderated by anchor Anderson Cooper.

CNN says they will select the audience members in the room, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

A network spokesperson has said that CNN has not edited or offered any help in drafting the questions from the audience.

Cooper is expected to moderate and ask follow up questions to the vice president.

The event will be broadcast on CNN and begins at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have set their sights on Pennsylvania as key to victory in the presidential election. But it is not their only path to the White House.

Last week, Harris visited the state twice with campaign events in Erie and Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania. Trump campaigned in Oaks, Pennsylvania, and Latrobe outside Pittsburgh.

Pennsylvania with its nineteen electoral votes is the biggest of the seven battleground states that could swing either way and decide the election.

And the latest polling is showing the race in a dead heat in the crucial swing state, with Trump up just half a point in the Real Clear Politics average.

While the path forward to the necessary 270 electoral votes becomes much more complicated without Pennsylvania, it does not mean the race is over for either Trump or Harris.

Republicans have taken the lead in early voting in Nevada, the latest numbers show.

GOP voters lead Democrats by 12,000 votes cast.

Overall, 333,000 people – or 16.6% – have voted. If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the vote is in, noted Nevada political expert Jon Ralston.

Nevada mails a ballot to every registered voter a few weeks before the election and it needs to be postmarked by Election Day in order to be counted. People can also vote in person if they wish.

Polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in the state.

The high voting numbers could be good news for Trump assuming the Republican voters voted for him.

Speaking Wednesday evening in Las Vegas, Nevada, former President Bill Clinton avoided talking about Donald Trump.

I want you to tell people why Harris is better.

Clinton said the election is about voting for the future and he is casting his ballot for Harris with his grandchildren in mind.

He touted Harris’ economic plan including putting money into homebuilding.

Harris has proposed giving first-time homebuyers a $25,000 financial incentive to purchase a home.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ‘capitalize on’ the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and end the war in Gaza.

Blinken met with Netanyahu for two and a half hours during his trip to Tel Aviv. President Joe Biden dispatched his secretary of state to the Middle East to revive talks of a ceasefire and get a deal to bring the remaining hostages home.

‘Now is the time to turn those successes into an enduring strategic success, and there are really two things left to do: get the hostages home and bring the war to an end with an understanding of what will follow. And that’s what we’ve been working on this past day and will continue to work on throughout this trip,’ Blinken told reporters.

The secretary of state’s next stop was Saudi Arabia. He arrived in Riyadh on Wednesday morning where he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Blinken, before he departed Israel, was staying at the David Kempinski in Tel Aviv where he had to take shelter with other guests when a Hezbollah missile launch set off warning sirens.

With exactly two weeks before Election Day, Usha Vance just gave Americans the most personal peak into her life since her husband, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, was tapped as Donald Trump’s running mate.

And the rare insight has come to light through the books the aspiring second lady totes around on the campaign trail.

The Yale Law-grad mother of three has been a regular presence alongside her husband since the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy was asked to join the ticket by Trump in July.

Photos of Usha, in fact, always seem to capture her walking around with one or more books, be it Daniel Mason’s ‘North Woods,’ Tana French’s ‘In the Woods’ or a copy of ‘The Iliad.’

Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.

Readers can view who is winning the head-to-head race as well as the situation in the battleground states that will ultimately decide who gets into the White House.

All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com’s pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

The hotel parking lot is deserted but for the red, white and blue bus, decorated with the giant features of Donald Trump.

It is still dark outside, but through the window a lone figure, impeccably dressed in red tie, white shirt and navy blazer, is hunched over a microphone at 7am.

‘When you look at what is ahead for a Trump administration, cost cutting … inflation is going to go down,’ John Fredericks tells his listeners in battleground states around the country.

‘We’re going to rein in spending. He’s already said that they’re going to close the border, they’re going to deport the illegals. They’re going to get the criminals out.’

Democrats are now in desperation mode, he says. Everything they’re doing is desperate because they know they’re going to lose.’

The Democratic candidate for Missouri was brutally mocked after he struck a television reporter with shrapnel from an AR-15 round during a campaign event on Tuesday.

Wannabe Senator Lucas Kunce was firing the weapon during an appearance at a private range in Holt, Missouri when a bullet fragment struck television reporter Ryan Gamboa in the arm.

The Democrat was firing shots alongside former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger before he had to bandage the KSHB-TV journalist’s bloody arm.

Keir Starmer today tried to shrug off a furious reaction from Donald Trump over Labour activists campaigning for his Democrat rival.

The PM insisted the pair could still work together despite the Republican candidate’s campaign accusing the party of ‘blatant foreign interference’ in the US election.

A complaint to the Federal Election Commission says sending activists to the States amounts to ‘illegal foreign campaign contributions’ for Kamala Harris.

Trump’s aides cited a now-deleted post on LinkedIn by Sofia Patel, Labour’s head of operations, which said 100 current and former staffers were going to be volunteering in battleground states such as North Carolina and Nevada. Significantly it suggested that accommodation would be arranged.

Rules about foreigners working in US elections are strict and state that they must volunteer and cannot receive any payment.

Grilled by reporters en route to Samoa for the Commonwealth summit overnight, Sir Keir insisted activists had always been able to offer support in the US.

With former President Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early again, flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and helping push the national number to nearly 19 million.

The early turnout is breaking records in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

The GOP hopes this surge of early votes will fix a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing it the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022.

Campaigns usually want their voters to cast ballots ahead of Election Day so they can focus their resources on getting more marginal supporters to the polls at the last minute.

Republicans excelled at that before Trump turned against early in-person and mail voting in 2020, as he spun wild conspiracies about the process and convinced his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. But the party is again pushing its voters to cast their ballots early, and the former president is largely encouraging the change.

‘I am telling everyone to vote early,’ Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative Dan Bongino, who has widely spread false information about early voting and the 2020 election.

Republicans seem to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press research.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Former Hawaii Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced she is joining the Republican party Tuesday night.

Taking the stage before thousands in Greensboro, North Carolina, Gabbard cemented her conversion from Democrat to Republican.

‘It is because of my love for our country and specifically because of the leadership that President Trump has brought to transform the Republican Party that I’m proud to stand here with you today and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party,’ she proudly declared.

She continued: ‘I’m joining the party of the people, the party of equality, the party that was founded to fight against and end slavery in this country.’

Gabbard said that the GOP and Trump were ‘the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace.’

The two then embraced on stage in front of a screaming audience.

Donald Trump called Barack Obama ‘a jerk’ on Tuesday night while Obama mercilessly mocked the GOP candidate – reigniting a bitter feud between the two former presidents.

Trump went after Obama at a campaign stop in North Carolina, claiming the Democrat looked ‘exhausted’ and ‘couldn’t care less’ about the country.

‘I think he’s a real jerk because I’ve watched him campaign over the last couple of days,’ Trump said.

‘Over the last couple of days I’ve watched him campaign. What a divider he is. He divides this country. He couldn’t care less, him and his little group of people.’

Meanwhile, Obama took some jabs at Trump for selling sneakers and watches during a rally in Detroit where he rapped onstage after being introduced by Eminem.