Election polls live updates: Latest 538 forecast shows Trump leading in Pennsylvania as swing state poll reveals who has the edge

Donald Trump has edged ahead of Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania for the first time in a major election forecaster.

FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of polls puts Trump at 47.9 percent while Harris has 47.5.

The last time Trump led in the state that could ultimately decide the election was in July, just before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The former president spent most of his weekend in the Keystone State and both campaigns will be spending a lot of time there in the final days.

As of Monday morning, Trump was also ahead by a hair in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Harris had the advantage in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Early in-person voting began in seven states on Monday with 15 days until the election.

Voters can head to the polls in Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Idaho, North Dakota, South Carolina and Texas.

Millions have already headed to the polls in states like North Carolina.

More than half of voters plan to do so early, according to a NBC News poll released last week.

And surveys of those who have already cast their ballot shows Harris has the advantage.

The 2024 presidential election could be one of the closest in history.

Polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck during one of the most unprecedented campaigns in recent memory.

The race has been dominated by assassination attempts, two drama-filled debates and President Joe Biden making the monumental decision to forgo a chance at a second term by dropping out of the race.

Every day there are dramatic twists and turns that are shaping the biggest conversation in the nation: Who will be the next president?

As the United States races toward Election Day on November 5, DailyMail.com is launching its first politics newsletter to keep you up to date with the most important developments.

Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.

Readers can view who is winning the head-to-head race as well as the situation in the battleground states that will ultimately decide who gets into the White House.

All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com’s pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

Kamala Harris set a record for the biggest fund-raising quarter ever this fall, raising $1 billion in the three-month period that ended Sept. 30.

She significantly outraised Republican rival Donald Trump.

In September alone she outraised Trump three-to-one.

The Harris campaign and Democratic political committees raised over $359 million that month, while Trump and Republican-affiliated committees raised $160 million.

Harris also has more cash-on-hand: $346 million compared to Trump’s $283 million.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have set their sights on Pennsylvania as key to victory in the presidential race. But it is not their only path to the White House.

Last week, Harris visited the state twice with campaign events in Erie and Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania. Trump campaigned in Oaks, Pennsylvania, and Latrobe outside Pittsburgh.

Pennsylvania with its nineteen electoral votes is the biggest of the seven battleground states that could swing either way and decide the election.

And the latest polling is showing the race in a dead heat in the crucial swing state, with Trump up just half a point in the Real Clear Politics average.

While the path forward to the necessary 270 electoral votes becomes much more complicated without Pennsylvania, it does not mean the race is over for either Trump or Harris.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

President Joe Biden is proposing a new rule that is proposing a rule that would require private insurance to cover over-the-counter birth control pills and other contraceptives at no cost.

The rule would expand a federal mandate under the Affordable Care Act that requires health insurers to cover preventative care services at no cost to patients.

It would come into effect in 2025 if finalized.

Reproductive rights have become a huge issue in the 2024 election and Democrats see it as a way to rally their voting base to the polls.

‘This rule, once finalized, will expand contraception coverage for 52 million women of reproductive age with private health insurance,’ White House Gender Policy Council Director Jennifer Klein said.

In a campaign that is shattering spending records, a handful of individuals are accounting for a massive splurge that is driving the ad spending voters are seeing on billboards and smartphones in battleground states.

Among them are billionaires who amassed fortunes in railroads, hedge funds, and shipping platforms.

The five top mega-donors are all backing Republicans, with Donald Trump relying on their support to try to counter the edge Kamala Harris has garnered among individual contributors.

Topping the list is Timothy Mellon, the grandson of leading financier and Pittsburgh native Andrew Mellon. He alone accounts for $172 million in campaign contributions, with $125 million going to the pro-Trump MAGA, Inc.

He also gave $25 million to American Values 2024, which backs Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who ended his independent campaign and threw his support to Trump.

The former president put him on his transition effort and said he will take on health responsibilities in a future Trump administration.

Tucked away in the far northwest corner of country just before the cliffs drop off into the Pacific Ocean lies America’s last true bellwether county.

A decidedly purple place, the small, rural region of Clallam County in Washington boasts an unmatched record of voting for every presidential election winner since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

This is the longest success streak of any of America’s 3,143 counties.

Now all eyes are on this unassuming county once again to see which way the wind is blowing for 2024, as vice president Kamala Harris faces off against former president Donald Trump in a divisive, neck and neck race.

When traveling across Clallam County, the tight nature of the 2024 election is on full display.

Visitors heading west into town on Highway 101 are met with a series of Harris-Walz yard signs, shortly before a massive Trump-Vance banner shows up in the same stretch of field.

But while politics at a national scale have become toxic, in this small community where Democrats and Republicans have lived side by side for decades, residents have succeeded in keeping a calm head – or avoiding talking politics altogether.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Ukraine on Monday to insist the U.S. will continue its support with just two weeks until the election.

The Pentagon chief announced a new $400million package of military aid to help shore up support.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still wants weapons that can strike deep into Russia.

Austin’s trip to Kyiv is likely his last under the Biden administration, and will include talks about how Ukraine can keep up its ground offensive.

‘We’re going to continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its sovereign territory,’ Austin told reporters.

‘We’ve watched this fight evolve over time. And each time that it does evolve, we have risen to the occasion to meet (Ukraine’s) needs to make sure that they were effective on the battlefield,’ he added.

A large poll of 5,000 registered voters in the seven swing states that will decide the election shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a tie.

The Washington Post-Schar School poll find both candidates on 47 percent.

The poll was taken in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.

Harris fared in best in Georgia and Trump in Arizona.

New polling shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump with women over the age of 50 by more than any presidential candidate since 2016.

The survey shows that 54 percent of women in that demographic plan to vote for the vice president, over just 42 percent for Trump.

It’s a huge improvement from Joe Biden, who only led Trump by three points with women over 50 in January.

The numbers are also better than Hillary Clinton’s numbers in 2016, who polled 48p percent -40 percent over Trump.

AARP, who conducted the survey, believes that women over 50 can potentially sway the election.

CBS denied allegations it ‘deceitfully edited’ a longwinded answer Kamala Harris gave during a 60 Minutes interview – but admitted airing a ‘more succinct’ portion of her response.

The controversy began when the vice president sat for an interview that aired last Monday on the flagship program and was asked about the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Her verbose answer, riddled with long pauses and hesitant wording, was played during a 60 Minutes preview that aired on CBS Face the Nation last Sunday.

However, when the whole interview was broadcast on 60 Minutes the next evening, Harris appeared to give a more succinct answer.

An innocuous photo of a make-up free Ivanka Trump may have provided a major hint that her father has repaired relations with Nikki Haley as the election winds down.

Haley, the former ambassador to the UN, gave her endorsement to Former President Trump in May but has been absent on the campaign trail – while admitting their personal relationship remains frosty.

However, multiple outlets recently reported that the Trump camp is wooing Haley to help shore up the former president’s standing with women.

On Saturday, a thaw between Haley and Trump appeared to take shape when the former South Carolina governor liked an Instagram photo posted by Ivanka.

The former presidential advisor and First Daughter posted a makeup-free photo with her family celebrating the Jewish holiday Sukkot.