According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, America is in a ‘much stronger geopolitical position today than it was four years ago’.
Few outside Biden’s increasingly bizarre bubble will agree with that thought– or could possibly agree because this claim is, to use a technical term, a truck-load of tosh.
Ever since he arrived in the Oval Office in January 2017, Biden and his advisers have assumed with the neocons that America is ruler of the world and that its president is king – which defies all logic, of course.
From Afghanistan to Gaza, the Donbas to Damascus, the certainties that held the post-war world together are fast unraveling.
And with Biden in the White House, the limits of American power have been brutally exposed.
That’s why, for all the many contradictions about what his true position might be when he takes office in January, I’m confident that Donald Trump will change things for the better.
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, America is in a ‘much stronger geopolitical position today than it was four years ago’
A car burns after an airstrike next to a hospital in Idlib, Syria. A push by Islamist rebels has brought fresh chaos to the region
Whatever he says about ‘America First’ (and which president is not America First) the bigger point is this: Trumps knows there are limits to US power.
Aside from Biden and Blinken, does anyone honestly believes that Washington can fight Putin, defend Taiwan, protect Europe, restrain China and settle the Middle East all at the same time?
Trump understands that America must pick its battles wisely. Merely by accepting the harsh realities of power, he is ahead.
There is more to Trump than that, of course. Like the predecessors he so much admires, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, he knows there is a place for personal diplomacy – threats if necessary.
Last week, Trump raised the specter of an all-out trade war with the BRICS grouping of middle ranking powers – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – should they dare to establish an alternative global currency and threaten the primacy of the Dollar.
Is he serious? Who knows – that’s part of the point. But the intervention acknowledges another key reality: the world has changed.
The rise of China with its multi-billion dollar trade and investment programs means other nations no longer feel obliged to do whatever Washington says.
Former ‘client states’ are restive, all too aware that past US promises of prosperity came to nothing.
There will be no let-up in Iranian aggression so long as India and China buy Russian and Iranian oil – in the teeth of US sanctions. There is little America and Europe can do about Russia so long as China and the ‘global south’ refuse to condemn Putin’s bloodshed.
It might seem a statement of the obvious but after the last four years, it needs saying: diplomacy matters.
Whatever we think about Russia’s Putin and Xi of China, it is surely better to meet them face-to-face and attempt to build some rapport, as Trump did last time he was in office.
He had warm relations with India’s President Narendra Modi, too. It has even been suggested that his advisers at Mar-a-Lago have opened back-channel negotiations with the Iranians.
Turkey is another power worth throwing into the mix – is already in the mix, in fact.
While other currencies suffer under the threat of US trade sanctions, readers of the financial pages might have noticed that the Turkish Lira is gaining ground.
That’s because Trump admires Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey. It’s understood the two men have already held discussions via intermediaries – and about time.
Under the Biden regime, Turkey, a key player in its region and a huge manufacturer of drones and other weaponry, has been allowed to grow closer to Russia.
Given the sensitivity of Turkey’s location between Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and bearing in mind its vast network of oil and pipelines, this counts as a mistake.
The last few days have seen a fresh outbreak of Islamist inspired fighting in Syria – more sparks flying in a tinder-dry region. Yet there will be no peace deal without Turkey, which already controls much of northern Syria, including a 30-mile buffer zone on its border.
It is likely that Turkey will have much to say about the future of Israel, as one of the few powers capable of bridging the gulf between Jerusalem and Gaza.
Whatever we think about Russia’s Putin and Xi of China, it is surely better to meet them face-to-face and attempt to build some rapport, as Trump did last time he was in office
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has a good relationship with Donald Trump – and the Turkish Lira has strengthened since Trump’s re-election
How to re-establish influence in Africa, a continent fast spinning out of control thanks in part to Russian meddling? How to persuade the BRICS nations to take a more positive view of the West? Or to address the world migration crisis and much else besides?
America needs help with all these things – from Turkey, from India, Mexico, China, Canada, Venezuela and the EU.
It will have to learn to give a little in return and maybe even take a risk or two. There will certainly be losers – I would hate to be Ukrainian right now.
But the alternative is pretending with Anthony Blinken and Pangloss that all has been for the best in the best of all possible worlds. And that the past four years have been a roaring success.
They haven’t. It’s time to bring this fantasy to an end.
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