Farage denies lying by conceding Brexit defeat for hedge fund profits

The explosive Bloomberg report also raises questions about what Nigel Farage (pictured on ITV’s GMB today) knew about the secret information which suggested that trumped expectations to predict Brexit had won.

Hedge funds made billions of pounds by betting against sterling on the EU referendum day after commissioning secret exit polls, it was today claimed.

The businesses are said to have raked in vast sums by shorting the market after being given analysis which pointed to a strong turnout for Leave. 

The explosive Bloomberg report also raises questions about what Nigel Farage knew about the secret information.

Mr Farage, the then Ukip leader and an ex broker, conceded defeat in an interview with Sky News aired at 10pm – sending the price of sterling soaring. 

Later on the EU referendum night while votes were still being counted, Mr Farage again went on TV to repeat his claim he believed Leave had been defeated.

But Bloomberg suggests he may have already been told the results of a poll carried out by Survation and sold to hedge funds which correctly predicted Leave had won the day.

Mr Farage strongly denies any claim of deliberately trying to sway markets, telling MailOnline that ‘of course’ he did not try to mislead people by conceding defeat.

When Brexit was eventually declared the winner later that night the pound was sent tumbling – meaning hedge funds which had bet against the currency made vast amounts.

One hedge fund is said to have made a staggering £300million by betting against the pound.

Under current laws, pollsters are not allowed to publish exit polls to the public, or any section within it, before 10pm in case it influences voters.

But Bloomberg claims many hedge funds were getting this information fed to them earlier – giving them a crucial edge on their competitors. 

Pollsters charged up to $1million (the equivalent of around £753,000) for a poll after deciding that selling information to one or two hedge funds would not break the law.   

According to two books chronicling Brexit – The Bad Boys of Brexit, penned by Mr Farage’s friend and Brexit donor Arron Banks, and All Out War –  the Ukip leader knew the results of a financial services poll before 10pm. 

What is the law on publishing exit polls? 

Pollsters have sold surveys to hedge funds for many years.

But under current laws, pollsters are not allowed to publish exit polls to the public, or any section within it, before polls close at 10pm in case it influences voters. 

It appears that pollsters decided that selling exit data to a single hedge fund, or several hedge funds, would not constitute a big enough slice of the public to break the law.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulates hedge funds and it would be for them to decide if the law was broken.

MailOnline has contacted FCA for comment on today’s allegations.

But Mr Farage told Bloomberg he only knew the results of the poll carried out by the Survation boss and his friend Damian Lyons-Lowe after 10pm. 

He told the website: ‘That would have been, that would have been—for he and I to have spoken ahead of that 10 o’clock—would have been wrong at every level. 

‘Wrong for me, wrong for him, just would have been wrong.’ 

He told MailOnline today: ‘There were many conflicting opinions and supposed polls that night. My frame of mind was negative on balance until [the] Sunderland [vote was announced]. 

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said the claims are ‘matters for the authorities to look at if they believe there is reason to do so’.

Nicky Morgan, Tory MP and chairwoman of the Treasury select committee, said: ‘The relationship between pollsters and their private clients needs to be much more transparent.’

The seven month investigation also claims that a number of other pollsters commissioned their own private exit surveys to help them make money.

It claims that YouGov, ICM, a Birmingham company called BMG, and ComRes all sold private polls to hedge funds.

Odey Asset Management, run by Crispin Odey, made about $300m (around £226m) from Brexit, Bloomberg claims.

When asked by the BBC about his Brexit windfall, Mr Odey declared that ‘the morning has gold in its mouth’.

Mr Odey said the private polling purchased from YouGov ahead of the vote was valuable but not  definitive. 

Six other hedge funds were also reportedly shopping for private polls – including Arrowgrass Capital Partners, Element Capital, Maven and PointState, according to the report. 

A Survation spokesman said: ‘Survation Limited has established itself as a leading opinion poll and research provider, including in respect of referendums and other elections where innovative methodologies are required. 

Hedge funds made billions of pounds by betting against the pound on the EU referendum day after commissioning secret exit polls, it was today claimed (pictured, the City of London)

Hedge funds made billions of pounds by betting against the pound on the EU referendum day after commissioning secret exit polls, it was today claimed (pictured, the City of London)

‘We work regularly for a wide variety of newspapers, private clients and political parties. Survation Limited does not comment on any confidential client work.’ 

A YouGov spokeswoman said: ‘YouGov delivers the best quality data and analysis to a wide variety of clients throughout the world. 

‘They pay us for timely insights to get a competitive edge in the sectors in which they work. 

‘We are proud to always operate strictly within the codes of conduct of our industry.’ 

Dawn Hands, the managing director of pollster BMG, said her firm ‘does not comment on the detail of any research conducted privately, nor name any of its private clients.’ 

Gregor Jackson, research director at ICM, confirmed to Bloomberg that the company had private clients in the Scottish and EU referendums but declined to comment further. 

A ComRes spokesman also declined to comment. 

Stephen Shakespeare, YouGov’s founder, told Bloomberg they sold private polling to a hedge fund.

MailOnline has contacted all the hedge funds mentioned in this article for comment, and the Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates hedge funds in the UK.

How in-the-know traders made hundreds of millions from vote 

Analysis

By Hugo Duncan 

 Hedge funds betting on Brexit cashed in as the pound and share prices tumbled following the vote to leave the European Union.

At 10.52pm on referendum day, sterling rose above $1.50 for the first time in six months after Nigel Farage conceded defeat and predicted that Remain had won.

But behind the scenes speculators still confident of a Leave victory were stacking up giant bets against the UK currency and British companies, which were seen as likely losers following a vote in favour of Brexit.

As the results started to come through their bets paid off as the pound dived to $1.32 in one of the largest falls of any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system.

Many of these investors had hired polling companies and bought voting data in order to profit from the referendum, according to an investigation by Bloomberg.

This information put them in the perfect position to profit from the market turmoil and falling pound.

Among them was hedge fund tycoon and Brexit backer Crispin Odey, who commissioned a private poll from YouGov ahead of the referendum to steal a march on the financial markets. Mr Odey made more than £220million for himself and his investors in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, declaring at the time: ‘I think I may be the winner.’

His gains came as sterling tumbled as the results of the referendum came through the early hours of June 24, 2016.

The pound dipped after midnight when Newcastle voted for Remain by a much narrower margin than expected. Anyone shorting sterling was already ahead a

 



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