Federal election date is finally revealed in biggest hint yet

With the coming federal election due to be held by the end of May, speculation has been rife for months as to what date will be chosen. 

The clearest hint yet came on Monday, with Labor insiders saying an April 12 election is likely, as Anthony Albanese wanting to get the Western Australia election out of the way first.

The WA state election is on March 8, so that would allow voters in the west five weeks between the two elections.

Labor won a massive majority in the last WA election and its state government is popular and expected to retain power. 

Calling the federal election in early March would allow the Labor government to avoid bringing down the federal budget which is due for March 25. 

Despite the two previous budgets showing surpluses, the next one is predicted by many to show the federal coffers in deficit. 

Though interest rates have stayed stubbornly high throughout Labor’s almost three years in office, the Government is hoping for an interest rate cut before the coming election. 

That would help ease voters’ minds about cost of living concerns and make some of them more likely to vote for Labor under Mr Albanese, rather than the Opposition under Peter Dutton. 

An analysis of Newspolls taken over the last quarter of 202 shows 35 to 49-year-old voters, commonly mortgage holders who determine many swinging electorates, are shunning the government as the election looms. 

But Mr Albanese dismissed concerns that he is leading the Labor Party to a likely election defeat, despite the polling data suggesting he is losing his grip on ‘middle Australia’.

‘What I am worried about is helping fellow Australians. I have been underestimated my whole political life,’ he told reporters late last month.

‘I am focused on making a difference for cost of living, making a difference for plans that we have going forward.

‘We have already announced a number of changes, including to address intergenerational equity issues by cancelling 20 per cent of HECS debts for people if we are reelected.’

Mr Albanese also aimed his message squarely at Australian families by talking about what Labor is doing with childcare.

‘We have announced changes to give a guarantee of childcare provision in an affordable way and we have announced billion-dollar funding for child care infrastructure,’ he said.

Support for Labor among the all-important 25 to 49-year-old voting group slumped to 31 per cent over the October-to-December polling period, down from 35 per cent from the quarter ending in June and 33 per cent from the quarter finishing in September.

Speculation has been rife for months about the date of the federal election. Opposition leader Peter Dutton (pictured) will be hoping it’s sooner rather than later

This has cut Labor’s lead in this demographic, which is considered particularly sensitive to cost of living and interest rate pressures, from a 53 to 47 per cent lead six months ago to now being neck-and-neck with the Coalition.

The Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote among this age group has risen to 37 per cent. 

The Opposition now leads in all age groups except for younger voters.

In this group Labor has been pulling voters from the Greens and has a two party preferred advantage over the Coalition of 63 to 37.

The largest lead the Coalition enjoys among age groups is 62-38 for those over 65.

NSW and Victoria appear to be the states likely to settle the next election and neither are boding well for Mr Albanese.

Victoria has seen a five per cent swing against the Albanese government, with Labor’s primary vote dropping to 30 per cent since the 2022 election.

The Coalition’s primary vote has increased from 36 to 39 per cent over the same period, meaning they have drawn level pegging in that state on a two-party preferred basis.

The difficulties Labor is experiencing in the two most populous states makes it all the more important for it to hang onto the gains it made in WA in the 2022 federal election. 

And that makes it all the more important not to annoy voters in the west by scheduling the election too close to the WA one.