Are you wondering when fall will arrive in your city and turn tree leaves into fall’s characteristic golden brown?
You can get a good idea of when to prepare yourself with a leaf rake by looking at Tennessee’s Smoky Mountains website’s interactive Fall Foliage Prediction Map.
The map allows one to see how leaves will change color across the US from now until the end of October, and it’s meant to help travelers better time their trips to have the best opportunity of catching peak color each year.
The map’s creators predicts an earlier-than-typical peak fall, with warmer-than-average fall temperatures during the September through November.
Use your mouse to zoom in on the interactive graphic
The interactive Fall Foliage Prediction Map. The map allows one to see how leaves will change color across the US from now until the end of October. Darker red areas represent peak fall foliage, and lighter areas represent minimal fall foliage
According to the Smoky Mountains website, the map works using a complex algorithm that carefully analyzes several million datapoints and outputs, approximately 50,000 predictive data pieces.
This data is used to forecast, county-by-county, the moment when fall peak will occur.
Some of the data used by the algorithm include: NOAA historical temperatures, precipitation, forecast temperatures, forecast precipitation and historical leaf peak trends.
‘The SmokyMountains.com data model continues to improve and become more accurate each year,’ said Wes Melton, the creator of the map.
‘This is due to our expanding historical database and our ability to analyze past predictions versus historical trends.
‘Our aggregated historical and current database now includes hundreds of thousands of unique data points giving us the ability to predict more accurately than ever before.’
‘Other than the Pacific Northwest, we are expecting warmer-than-average fall temperatures during the September through November time period.
‘These warmer temperatures are expected to prolong the color season.
‘Due to the heavier precipitation throughout the summer months, this year’s leaf model is predicting an earlier-than-typical peak fall.
‘However, the NOAA 90-day future precipitation and temperature graphs point to a prolonged color period for much of the country with higher elevations peaking first.
According to the Smoky Mountain website, leaves typically produce their vivid hues of green from spring through summer into early fall through the constant creation of Chlorophyll.
Chlorophyll is the compound that allows plants to convert sunlight energy into glucose to feed them, and these Chlorophyll compounds saturate the leaves, making them appear green.
As fall days begin to get shorter, the production of Chlorophyll slows to a halt, eventually giving way to the ‘true’ color of the leaf.
Beta-Carotene is one of the most common carotenoids present in most leaves, and it strongly absorbs blue and green light, reflecting yellow and red light from the sun, giving leaves their orange hue.
But unlike beta-carotenoids, pigments called anthocyanins increase in production in autumn, protecting the leaf and prolong its like on the tree through autumn, and making the leaf look red.
And flavonols are a compound that are always present in leaves, and contribute to the yellow color of egg yolks.
They make leaves yellow, but are not seen until the production of Chlorophyll begins to slow.
The interactive fall foliage map, pictured here running from now until the end of October, predicts that there will be a prolonged color season for fall leaves, and an earlier-than-typical peak fall, with higher elevations of the US peaking first
Then, in preparation for the freezing temperatures of winter, trees slowly close off the veins that carry water and nutrients to and from the leaves with a layer of new cells that form at the base of the lead stem, protecting the limbs and body of the tree.
Once thus process is complete, water and nutrients no longer flow to and from the leaf, and this allows the lead to due and weaken at the stem, eventually falling gracefully to the ground.
When the leaves fall to the ground, they break down and create a rich humus on the forest floor that absorbs dew and rainfall, and this ‘sponge’ acts as a continual source of nutrients and water for trees and plants, helping to promote life and plant health in the next spring season.
The NOAA’s 90-day future precipitation and temperature graphs point to a prolonged color period for much of the country. Other than the Pacific Northwest, we are expecting warmer-than-average fall temperatures from September to November