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Emmanuel Macron has said he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine if Vladimir Putin’s forces break through the front lines – further raising the risk of NATO forces clashing with Russia’s armies. In an interview published today, the French president said the issue of sending troops would ‘legitimately’ arise if Kyiv and president Volodymyr Zelensky made such a request.
The Economist said Macron gave the interview after delivering a keynote speech last week where he declared that Europe is ‘mortal’ and could ‘die’ partly due to the threat posed by Russian aggression after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It also came as Russia claimed its forces had taken another town in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, with Moscow’s armies continuing to push against Kyiv’s defences.
Russia is rushing to advance against struggling Ukrainian forces ahead of the long-awaited arrival of the bulk of US weapons to the front for Kyiv’s outgunned troops. ‘I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,’ Macron said when asked if he stood by comments earlier this year not excluding the sending of Western troops that sent shockwaves around Europe. Such a move would see NATO troops go head-to-head with those in the Russian army, dramatically increasing the risk of an escalation.
What’s more, some analysts believe that Russia could be on the verge of launching a major new offensive in Ukraine. Macron said ‘if Russia decided to go further, we will in any case all have to ask ourselves this question’ of sending troops, describing his refusal to rule out such a move as a ‘strategic wake-up call for my counterparts’. He described Russia as ‘a power of regional destabilisation’ and ‘a threat to Europeans’ security’. ‘I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,’ Macron said. ‘If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe,’ he warned. ‘Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighbouring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?’
Under NATO’s Article 5, all members are obliged to defend others in the case of an armed attack. Should Russia directly attack a NATO member, then the U.S., the UK, France and Germany are among those who would be expected to respond. Any such conflict risks growing into a global war, the like of which has not been seen since the end of the Second World War. The release of the interview came as Moscow’s defence ministry said troops had ‘fully liberated the settlement of Berdychi.’ Kyiv said it had retreated from the village, northwest of the Moscow-held town of Avdiivka, over the weekend.
Berdychi – which lies some 7 miles from Avdiivka – is the latest in a string of tiny eastern villages Russia has claimed in recent weeks. Moscow has made some gains in the area since capturing Avdiivka in February after some of the most brutal battles in its more than two-year offensive. Ukraine said in February it had established defensive lines in Berdychi after the fall of the nearby village of Lastochkyne. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Kyiv had retreated from Berdychi and two other nearby villages to protect ‘the lives and health of our defenders.’ He called the area the ‘most complicated’ part of the front and conceded that Russia has made ‘certain tactical successes’ there.
Until Ukrainian forces on the frontlines start to see the impact of the $61 billion U.S. aid package approved last week, Russia will have far superior firepower. Its troops are gradually advancing around the town of Avdiivka after capturing it in February and also to the west of Bakhmut, which it seized last year. Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Sunday that fighting in the east had recently worsened and that his troops had fallen back in three places on the front.
According to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-run volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content, Russia has gained more territory in Ukraine this year than Kyiv did in its counteroffensive last summer. From June 1 to October 1, 2023, Russian forces lost control of 414.26 square kilometres of territory. From January 1 to May 2, 2024, they have gained 432.3 square kilometers, most of it in the Donetsk region, the analyst said. Russian forces are focusing most of their assaults on the strategic town of Chasiv Yar, just west of Bakhmut, and further south around Ocheretyne.
Ukrainian officials believe that Moscow wants to seize Chasiv Yar by the symbolic date of May 9, or Victory Day in Russia. That would place some of the Donetsk region’s largest Ukrainian-held cities within artillery range, analysts say. Troops at the position, the location of which Ukraine’s armed forces requested not to be disclosed, told Reuters Russian attacks were steady but often unpredictable. ‘We can have a calm night and just keep watch, or we can be running to the gun 15 to 20 times,’ said Boichak, a bespectacled former builder. ‘And the same thing during the day.’
Russian drones are a constant threat, the soldiers said, while a lack of fresh manpower meant that they were spread thin and growing tired. Kyiv has designed a new mobilisation package to replenish its forces, which are easily outnumbered. ‘I’d like to leave at least for a week and rest, but we keep working for as long as needed,’ Boichak said. A battalion commander in the same brigade, who withheld his name for security purposes, said small tactical gains by Russian forces did not yet amount to a significant strategic advantage. He acknowledged, however, Moscow’s ability to throw far more troops into battle than Kyiv in its bid to seize the initiative. ‘To lose an entire company in one day is nothing for them.’
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