Donald Trump’s hopes of securing six more years in the White House are being boosted as Democrats stage a Jeremy Corbyn-style lurch to the Left, a new poll reveals.
Exactly two years after being sworn in, the controversial US President is also said to have retained the backing of his core supporters.
But the findings – by polling expert and ex-Tory Party deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft – come just as Mr Trump is embroiled in a fresh row over his alleged links to Moscow.
Exactly two years after being sworn in, the controversial US President (Donald Trump is pictured on Saturday) is said to have retained the backing of his core supporters
The findings – by polling expert and ex-Tory Party deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft – come just as Mr Trump is embroiled in a fresh row over his alleged links to Moscow. Pictured is an anti-Trump protester last year
He angrily denied claims by news site Buzzfeed that he had instructed his long-time lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about plans to build a Trump Tower in the Russian capital.
To mark the halfway point of Mr Trump’s current term in the White House, Lord Ashcroft today releases new research on American public opinion. It exposes starkly divided views, with critics seeing the Mr Trump as an ‘erratic, chauvinistic President embarrassing America on the world stage’.
Polling expert and ex-Tory Party deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft has found that the US President has retained the backing of his core supporters
But Lord Ashcroft’s research also reveals that ‘the Donald’ has largely met or even surpassed the expectations of many of the people who voted for him at the 2016 election.
They point to a ‘thriving economy, stoked by tax cuts and deregulation’, as well as two conservative appointments to the US Supreme Court and a ‘tough line on illegal immigration and border security’.
The ‘Half-Time’ research, which includes surveys of 15,000 Americans since last year’s mid-term elections, also shows a Left-ward switch by the rival Democrat Party, which could have bearing on Mr Trump’s re-election chances.
Lord Ashcroft says that most Democrats now want the party to adopt more ‘liberal, progressive candidates than more moderate, centrist ones’. He writes that focus groups have revealed moderate voters saying they have been ‘driven Left-ward in reaction to Trump’. The findings will strike a chord with moderate Labour MPs who claim the move Left under Mr Corbyn makes it hard for their party to be elected.
LORD ASHCROFT: Young Democrats blinded by their hatred of the Donald risk picking a presidential candidate so Left-wing that all they will guarantee is six more years of Trump
It is two years today since Donald Trump entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one; whether it also proves to be the halfway point in his presidency remains to be seen. Does President Trump have two years left in office – or six?
As my research has found over the past two years, those who voted for him positively, rather than as the only way of avoiding a President Hillary Clinton, remain solidly behind him.
They point to a thriving economy stoked by tax cuts and deregulation, two conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, a newly combative approach to international affairs, a willingness to reshape global trade deals in the interests of American jobs, and a tough line on immigration and border security.
It is two years today since Donald Trump (pictured on Saturday) entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one
As Lord Ashcroft’s research has found over the past two years, those who voted for him positively, rather than as the only way of avoiding a President Hillary Clinton, remain solidly behind him
They like that he continues to say exactly what he (and often, they) think, and the outrage this causes in some quarters only adds to their enjoyment. And if his statements sometimes fall foul of the fact-checkers, they see him as honest in what they regard as the more important sense that he is authentic and has set about doing the things he said he would: rare enough traits in an elected official.
After years of feeling ignored or even despised by the political class, believing a President is speaking and acting for them is an almost exhilarating experience.
And if some Trump voters view his personal ethics with distaste and wish he would calm down on Twitter, they decided at the election that other things mattered more, and this still holds true.
Those who did not support Trump think he has been every bit as bad as they expected, and worse: they see a divisive, erratic, chauvinistic President embarrassing America on the world stage. Not only that, they seem to become more riled and determined by the month.
But despite the well-documented polarisation of American society, not everyone falls into one of those two camps.
Those who did not support Trump think he has been every bit as bad as they expected, and worse. A protester is seen during a demonstration against the Trump administration in Los Angeles, California
Those who voted for Trump as the lesser of two evils are less supportive than those who were enthusiasts from the outset. The same is true of those who backed the President having voted for Barack Obama in 2012 – a group who helped Trump to his tiny but crucial winning margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin around which he built his victory.
And especially in prosperous suburbs, enough Republicans stayed at home or switched sides in last year’s mid-term elections to give the Democrats control of the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, stock market reversals at the end of 2018 are a reminder that support built on a booming economy can be precarious.
This clearly represents a huge opportunity for Trump’s opponents. But for all the encouragement they take from his historically low approval ratings, the nation’s view of the President is only half the story. The other half – the identity of his opponent, and the platform and message he or she adopts – will be decided by millions of Democrats in a five-month series of elections beginning early next year.
With around 30 potential candidates, this campaign is only just getting under way.
But my latest research, published today, shows what these voters are thinking.
Most Democrats would rather see their party adopt more liberal, progressive candidates than more moderate, centrist ones – and the more committed they are to the party, the more likely they are to feel this way.
Our analysis identifies ten distinct segments of the electorate. Of the three predominantly Democratic groups, the young, educated and affluent Cosmopolitan Activists are by far the most likely to get involved in campaigns and – crucially – vote in the Democratic primaries.
With around 30 potential candidates, this presidential campaign is only just getting under way. Donald Trump is pictured speaking outside the White House on Saturday
Seven in ten say they are liberal and nearly one in six say they are socialists.
The group has doubled in size in the past two years at the expense of our other two Democrat-leaning segments – Mainstream Liberals and more socially conservative Blue-Collar Democrats.
This tallies with what we hear in focus groups, where previously moderate voters have been driven Leftwards in reaction to Trump and all his works.
The perpetual horror at the President’s words and deeds, especially on social media, has produced an expanding class of radicalised activists for whom the antidote to Trumpism is not moderation and consensus but can only be found on the Left. They overwhelmingly want to see a liberal progressive as their party’s nominee in 2020.
Uncommitted voters in the middle, meanwhile, prefer a centrist candidate, and the Republicans in play – such as those who switched from Obama to Trump in the rustbelt, moderates who stayed at home or voted grudgingly to stop Hillary, and reluctant Trumpers who backed the Democrats last November but would still put themselves on the centre-right – would take some convincing to elect someone the most radical Democrats have chosen in their own image.
Already, some Democrats are wrestling with the trade-off between a candidate they can celebrate and a candidate who can win. Their decision will determine who delivers the next inaugural address on Capitol Hill two years from today.
l Half-Time: American Public Opinion Midway Through Trump’s (First?) Term is published this week by Biteback.
George Bush delivers pizza to unpaid Secret Service agents as pressure mounts on Donald Trump to end US government shutdown
Donald Trump was last night under mounting pressure to end the US government shutdown as former President George W. Bush released a photograph of himself delivering pizzas to unpaid Secret Service agents.
About 800,000 government workers have gone without pay during the shutdown, which is entering its 30th day today.
Writing beside the image on social media, Mr Bush, who makes no secret of his dislike for Mr Trump, said: ‘Laura Bush and I are grateful to our Secret Service personnel and the thousands of federal employees working hard for our country without a paycheck.’
President George W. Bush released a photograph of himself delivering pizzas to unpaid Secret Service agents last night
He added: ‘It’s time for leaders on both sides to put politics aside, come together, and end this shutdown.’
Mr Trump ordered the move after the Democrat-controlled Congress refused his demand for £3.9 billion to fund a border wall between the United States and Mexico.
Some unpaid workers have even set up online pages to raise money to buy food.
A solemn Mr Trump last night met the coffins of four US citizens, including a Navy Seal, who were killed during an IS suicide bombing in Syria on Wednesday.
He later returned to the White House to prepare for a rare Saturday address from the Oval Office. Reports claimed he would offer legal protection for ‘dreamers’ – undocumented immigrants brought to the US illegally as children.