Global carbon emissions are on the rise again in 2017 driving by China’s economic growth, after three years of little-to-no increase.
The 2 per cent rise in carbon dioxide coming from fossil fuels follows three years in which the world saw little to no growth in emissions.
The rise in emissions has prompted scientists to warn that ‘time is running out’ on the ability to keep temperature rises to levels that could avoid dangerous climate change.
It was previously hoped that emissions might soon reach their peak after three stable years, so the new projection for 2017 is an unwelcome message (stock image)
The figures point to China as the main cause of the renewed growth in fossil emissions – with a projected growth of 3.5 per cent this year.
CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 0.4 per cent in the US and 0.2 per cent in the EU this year, smaller declines than during the previous decade.
These new figures will make for unwelcome news for policy makers and delegates at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn this week.
‘Global CO2 emissions appear to be going up strongly once again after a three year stable period. This is very disappointing’, lead researcher Dr Corinne Le Quéré, from the University of East Anglia said.
‘With global CO2 emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2ºC let alone 1.5ºC.’
Increases in coal use in China and the US are expected this year, reversing their decreases since 2013.
‘This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with more intense rainfall, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favouring more powerful storms’, said Dr Le Quéré.
‘This is a window into the future. We need to reach a peak in global emissions in the next few years and drive emissions down rapidly afterwards to address climate change and limit its impacts.’
Renewable energy has increased rapidly at 14 per cent per year over the last five years – albeit from a very low base.
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2017, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to grow by 2 per cent this year, following three years of nearly no growth. Experts found the plateau of last year was not peak emissions after all. Atmospheric growth increases in line with total carbon dioxide emissions but has large variability
‘The use of coal, the main fuel source in China, may rise by 3 per cent due to stronger growth in industrial production and lower hydro-power generation due to less rainfall’, said Dr Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo who led one of the studies.
‘The growth in 2017 emissions is unwelcome news, but it is too early to say whether it is a one-off event on a way to a global peak in emissions, or the start of a new period with upward pressure on global emissions growth.’
‘Even though we may detect a change in emission trend early, it may take as much as ten years to confidently and independently verify a sustained change in emissions using measurements of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,’ said Dr Peters.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere grew at a record rate in 2016 to a level not seen for millions of years, the United Nations revealed last month.
This increase could fuel a staggering 20-metre rise in sea levels and add 3°C to temperatures.
The Paris climate agreement is already under pressure because US President Donald Trump (pictured) has said he plans to pull the US out of the deal, which seeks to limit the rise in temperatures to ‘well below’ 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial times
Experts hope the findings will encourage environment ministers around the world to work on new guidelines for the Paris climate accord.
The latest data adds to the urgency of a meeting in Bonn this week, when environment ministers from around the world will work on guidelines for the Paris climate accord backed by 195 countries in 2015.
The agreement is already under pressure because US President Donald Trump has said he plans to pull the US out of the deal, which seeks to limit the rise in temperatures to ‘well below’ 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial times.
Human CO2 emissions from sources such as coal, oil, cement and deforestation reached a record in 2016, and the El Niño weather pattern gave CO2 levels a further boost, the WMO said.