Plans to deliver a third runway at Heathrow were dealt a blow last night as the government admitted Gatwick will deliver a bigger economic benefit – but not until 2070.
Transport Secretary Chris Grayling insisted the case for expanding Heathrow was ‘as strong as ever’.
But the Department for Transport (DfT) ripped up key assumptions made by the independent Airports Commission when it backed Heathrow in 2015.
The Government has admitted expanding Gatwick airport rather than Heathrow, pictured, would be better for the British economy although it will take until 2070 to benefit
Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, left, said the case for Heathrow was ‘as strong as ever’
Alongside a series of new reports on the impact of expanding the west London airport, it was forced to re-open public consultation in light of the new evidence.
Crucially, it said the Airports Commission had underestimated how many passengers would be able to fly through Britain’s airports – particularly Gatwick.
In its final report backing Heathrow expansion, the commission said Gatwick would not handle 46million passengers a year until 2040.
But the Sussex airport has already almost hit this target.
Ministers have stressed that Heathrow will deliver a bigger economic boost for decades to come because it offers more long-haul routes and flies more freight than all other British airports combined.
But yesterday it admitted for the first time that Gatwick will deliver a bigger economic benefit from 2070 because it would be able to fly more passengers with a second runway than previously anticipated.
The increased forecasts for passengers also led the DfT to conclude yesterday that all five airports in the South East will be full by 2034 even if a third runway at Heathrow is built.
Gatwick, pictured, will be able to fly more passengers than anticipated with a second runway
It predicted Heathrow will be operating at maximum capacity by 2028. This is just three years after ministers hope the third runway will be finally be up and running. The Airports Commission said previously this tipping point would not be reached until 2035.
The revised passenger numbers have also thrown out figures for air quality which pose the biggest threat to expansion at Heathrow.
The airport already breaches air quality standards and ministers have made clear a third runway will not be built if Heathrow cannot provide a convincing plan to cut pollution.
Yesterday the DfT said it is still convinced Heathrow can meet air quality standards by the time the runway is scheduled to open in 2025.
But it said that ‘inherent uncertainties in air quality modelling’ meant a ‘high risk’ of Heathrow being further in breach of air quality standards. It said the risk was ‘low’ for a second runway at Gatwick.
The DfT insisted it is ‘on track’ to publish final proposals in the first half of 2018 for a vote in Parliament. If MPs agree, Heathrow will submit a planning application and consult on detailed proposals.
The airport hopes to begin construction in early 2021, with the runway completed by the end of 2025.
Yesterday business leaders anxious about boosting trade after the Brexit vote urged the government to get on with it.
Jane Gratton, head of business environment at the British Chambers of Commerce said: ‘Businesses need Heathrow’s third runway to be delivered as swiftly and smoothly as possible.’