Greggs growth slows after record run as sales climb above £2bn – and its share price takes a battering

By MIKE SHEEN

Updated: 09:57 GMT, 4 March 2025

Shares in Greggs fell sharply on Tuesday despite the baker posting another record year, as investors fretted over slower growth.

The FTSE 250 group’s sales exceeded £2billion for the first time over the 12 months to 28 December as it opened a record 226 new shops, bringing its total estate to 2,618 locations.

But the baker highlighted weak consumer confidence and poor weather as it flagged like-for-like sales growth of just 1.7 per cent year-on-year in the first nine weeks of 2025, following a weaker than expected second half of 2024.

Greggs has been on a five-year mission to double sales by 2026 and has been bolstering capacity to allow it to service as many as 3,500 stores across the UK over the longer term.

Boss Roisin Currie told shareholders: ‘Three years into this five-year plan, sales are on track and we continue to be confident in the growth opportunity in front of us.

‘The brand is in better shape than ever, with a material opportunity to continue growing and developing the Greggs estate and plenty of scope to continue to grow in newer dayparts and channels.’

But Greggs shares fell 10.6 per cent to 1,861p in early trading, taking 2025 losses to around 33 per cent.

Cooling off: Greggs growth begins to slow

The slump came despite 8.3 per cent profit growth to £204million and a 11.3 per cent ordinary dividend hike to 69p per share.

Greggs also told shareholders it wants to open 150 net new stores in 2025 with ‘clear opportunity for significantly more than 3,000 UK shops over longer term’.

Chair Matt Davies added: ‘Greggs delivered another strong performance in 2024, making further progress against our strategic plan and delivering an excellent financial outcome in more challenging market conditions.

‘The long-term growth opportunity ahead is clear and we are making good progress as we develop capacity in our supply chain to support further expansion in the years ahead.’

The tough start to 2025 for Greggs investors follows a remarkable run that had seen shares rise more than 140 per cent between September 2020 and the end of last year.

Dan Lane, Robinhood UK lead analyst, said: ‘Profits are up but it’s not the stellar performance the market is used to. 

‘The picture at Greggs is far from ugly though, a rising dividend and sector leadership might be enough to keep shareholders around through a tough spot for all consumer-facing businesses.

‘Greggs just needs to make sure looming employer national insurance contribution cost concerns don’t end up pushing prices beyond customer appetites.

‘There was a huge reaction to January’s decision to raise the cost of a sausage roll by 5p to £1.30, so the customer base is clearly tuned in to the inflationary environment and where they see Greggs in it.’

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Greggs growth slows after record run as sales climb above £2bn – and its share price takes a battering

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