Home Office forecast suggests small boat crossings may fall slightly this year

Official forecasts suggest the number of small boat crossings may fall slightly this year despite judges ruling the crucial Rwanda deal is unlawful.

Home Office projections say the ‘most likely’ scenario is 40,000 Channel crossings by end of the year, the Daily Mail can disclose, compared with 45,000 in a previous forecast drawn up at end of last year.

In the whole of last year 45,728 migrants reached Britain by small boat from northern France.

The new projections say that in a ‘worst case’ scenario, there could be 55,000 crossings by the end of this year – far lower than the previous estimate of 80,000.

And in a ‘best case’ scenario, the numbers could fall to as low as 35,000, the projections suggest, 10,000 lower than the previous guess of 45,000.

Last week Prime Minister Mr Sunak (pictured today) vowed the Government – and not people smugglers – will decide who is allowed into Britain 

So far this year’s arrivals are down more than 12 per cent on the same point last year, at 11,434.

The new forecasts indicate officials believe the downturn is likely to continue for the rest of the year.

It comes despite last month seeing a record number of arrivals for the month of June, with 3,824 reaching the UK.

Last week the Court of Appeal ruled the Rwanda deal – which aims to send migrants to the east African nation to claim asylum there rather than here – is unlawful.

A Government source said: ‘We’ve got our fingers crossed but the impact of the Court of Appeal ruling on migrants’ behaviour remains a big unknown.’ If the Government can show by the end of the year that Channel crossings have turned a corner, it would be a huge relief to Rishi Sunak, who has made stopping the boats one of his five key pledges to voters.

Such a development would make it easier for the Conservatives to go into the next general election showing their policies are beginning to work.

The Home Office forecasts are based on trends seen so far this year as well as on intelligence material on the numbers of migrants currently thought to be in France and other countries waiting to cross the Channel.

Last year arrivals by small boat peaked in August when 8,641 migrants reached the UK. The following month there were 7,961.

The Home Office forecasts are based on trends seen so far this year as well as on intelligence material on the numbers of migrants currently thought to be in France and other countries. Home Secretary Suella Braverman is pictured on June 29

There were five days during 2022 when more than 1,000 people arrived in a 24-hour period – the daily record was 1,295 on August 22.

So far this year the busiest day was June 11 with 549, revised down from the figure originally published by the Home Office.

At this stage last year there had already been a higher daily peak of 651.

Last week Prime Minister Mr Sunak vowed the Government – and not people smugglers – will decide who is allowed into Britain.

He spoke out after the flagship Rwanda scheme was thrown into disarray as it was blocked by appeal judges on human rights grounds.

Senior judges said sending any migrants to Rwanda would be ‘considered a breach of Article 3’ of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which prohibits torture and ill-treatment.

The Prime Minister said he ‘fundamentally disagreed’ with the Court of Appeal’s judgment.

It was the second time the Rwanda scheme has been blocked by human rights laws – after Strasbourg judges intervened to stop the first charter flight to Kigali just over a year ago.

Mr Sunak confirmed the Government will seek permission to appeal the decision in the Supreme Court. Officials have until Thursday to submit initial appeal paperwork.