How Albo could be Sussan Ley’s secret weapon. Plus, what the teals should do next after victory dance fail: PETER VAN ONSELEN

Time for teals to unite?

Liberal candidate Tim Wilson’s victory in Goldstein is the election’s only example of a teal MP losing their seat. 

You’ll recall on the night of the election Zoe Daniel made a goose of herself dancing around in celebration of her ‘victory’. 

She quickly learned a learn a thing or two about how our electoral system works in the days to come when postal votes overwhelmingly favoured the Liberal Party.

That resulted in Wilson clawing back to build an unassailable lead of his own.

While at one level it was understandable of someone ignorant to the way vote counting works to assume Wilson was gone for all money – falling 1,800 votes behind Daniel – for an incumbent MP to do so was rather embarrassing.

In the weeks of counting since election night, once absentee votes became the focus over postals, Daniel clawed back some votes of her own, but it was never going to be enough to get back in front.

Her supporters remained hopeful, presumably not having looked at the counting closely enough to do the maths. Daniel used social media to justify not conceding by pointing to the tightening race.

While hope springs eternal, that was always just an excuse in reverse engineering. An excuse for why she didn’t do the right thing and concede when every major network and political analyst had called the race against her.

While Daniel is now gone the same can’t be said of her former fellow teal MPs, the rest of whom won another term in parliament. Albeit to simply sit there in a lower house where the Labor Party has such a large majority that their votes are meaningless.

The real crossbench power during this term sits with the Greens, now that they control the Senate balance of power all in their own right. Other senate crossbenchers such as ACT Senator David Pocock are now as powerless as the teals.

Teal MP Zoe Daniel’s (pictured) premature victory dance went viral

Daniel volunteers boogie down during a campaign stop

Liberal candidate Tim Wilson’s victory in Goldstein is the election’s only example of a teal MP losing their seat. So what should they do now?

Which begs the question: will the teals look to the senate at the next election as a way of extending their parliamentary power base?

While the movement has fashioned itself as all about community issues, there is no reason that can’t be extended to the senate. States are simply larger communities.

Teals do well in Liberal heartlands, but they have also shown that they can appeal in Labor held seats too, coming close to winning the ACT seat of Bean. And their number one issue is climate change, which is a much broader topic than that of backyard politics.

Minor parties need 14.29 per cent of the vote to win a senate spot, but less than half of that on primaries before preferences can push them towards victory.

If the teals decide to run for senate positions they would be in with an even better chance of winning seats. Perhaps enough to share the balance of power over the course of two electoral cycles, remembering that only half the senate goes up for re-election each time we vote.

And god knows the teals have enough money to spend on statewide votes, with the cashed up support of Simon Holmes à Court and his Climate200 fund.

But running for the senate is easier when candidates come together as an official party so that they can run above the line, where most voters number the boxes.

Teals don’t want to form as an official party because doing so would elevate scrutiny of their actions, such are the rules surrounding gaining party status. And they would need the name ‘Teal’ on the ballot paper for the senate as a reminder that the candidates running are part of that collective.

If Labor deliver a second term as underwhelming as the first, it could give newly-elected Liberal Party leader Sussan Ley (pictured with her deputy, Ted O’Brien) the ammunition to exceed expectations

Only official parties can have the nomenclature on the ballot paper.

It’s something for Holmes à Court and his team to think about. If they really are serious about the climate, the senate is their pathway to better influencing policy decision making.

Liberal leadership questions  

Meanwhile, you really do have to question the thinking inside the Liberal Party in choosing Sussan Ley and Ted O’Brien as their leader and deputy.

What was the thinking? Having just been poleaxed at the election they choose the deputy leader from that campaign and the shadow minister responsible for the failed nuclear energy policy to lead us out of the wilderness.

It’s bizarre.

I guess when the only alternative was the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, who botched the opposition’s costings and failed to develop an alternative economic reform package you can see why they went with the team that won.

But make no mistake, impressive with a proven track record isn’t the way you can or would describe the pair. Liberals really needed a fresh start, but there is so little talent left in their diminished parliamentary team that the search for new names to lead wasn’t easy.

Labor having failed upwards at the election have every chance of delivering a second term as underwhelming as the first. Which might give Ley and O’Brien the ammunition they need to exceed expectations.

Political Editor Peter van Onselen isn’t impressed by Sussan Ley and Ted O’Brien’s track record – but another poor performance from Albo could give them the leg up they need 

Unless Albo lifts his game, he could end up being Sussan Ley’s secret weapon 

For the sake of our democracy I hope so, because you rarely get good government when oppositions are weak.

This government is now odds on for two more terms in power, minimum. But in modern politics things can change fast. You wouldn’t bet against Labor winning the next election three years from now, especially if up against the Ley/O’Brien ticket. 

But unless Albo lifts his game it’s hard to see another result like the last one.

Two term governments don’t get the benefit of the doubt the way one term administrations do.

Tax and federation reforms: ‘It’s time’ 

Finally, can someone in the newly elected government finally have the courage to come up publicly and demand we take a serious look at tax and federation reforms? 

A white paper on both was wisely flagged nearly a decade ago before Malcolm Turnbull threw both in the too hard basket. Piecemeal changes to both, such as the impending new tax on super, are shallow and don’t calibrate such changes within a wider reform package capable of setting Australia up for a more prosperous future. 

If we just kick the reforming can further down the road as a country we’ll be playing catch up for years to come. 

And the losers will be the next generation. Those of us now in their 40s and 50s were gifted an easier ride courtesy of the reforms Bob Hawke and Paul Keating started, and John Howard continued. 

But that all stopped nearly a quarter of a century ago. As Gough Whitlam once said, it’s time.

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