One of the illusions of the Brexit debate is the idea that staying in the European Union is a way of protecting liberal values.
In the story some Remainers like to tell, the EU is an institution that leaves behind the narrow loyalties and prejudices of nationalism to build a Europe-wide form of government. The referendum decision to draw back from this enlightened future could only be a retrograde step.
In voting to leave, a British majority showed that it was stuck in the past.
For Remainers, however, to opt for Brexit was unthinkable, and once they had recovered from the shock of realising that the unthinkable had happened, they determined to do all they could to reverse the decision. Britain represented the illiberal past and the EU a liberal future.
Hard-Right governments have strengthened their hold on power in Poland and Hungary. Pictured, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (left) and Montenegrian President Milo Djukanovic
This was a far-fetched view at the time of the referendum, and today it is plainly false.
Illiberal forces are advancing across the European continent.
Hard-Right governments have strengthened their hold on power in Poland and Hungary, while in Austria and Italy, parties with links to interwar fascism play a pivotal role in ruling coalitions.
The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia all have powerful far-Right parties in, or close to entering, government.
Sweden, Finland and Denmark are in the same position.
But it is in Germany that the advance of the far-Right is most striking.
![In Austria and Italy, parties with links to interwar fascism play a pivotal role in ruling coalitions. Pictured, Italy's deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/07/27/01/4E90E64C00000578-5997663-image-a-27_1532651413658.jpg)
In Austria and Italy, parties with links to interwar fascism play a pivotal role in ruling coalitions. Pictured, Italy’s deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini
Only a few months ago, Remainers were pointing to the solidity of Angela Merkel’s Germany as evidence of the folly of Brexit.
Led by this liberal icon, who had welcomed more than a million migrants into the country, the most powerful European state seemed to be the embodiment of a continent no longer shaped by national identities and borders.
That picture of the future has been consigned to the past. Merkel lingers on, but she is a spent force. Under electoral threat from the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, she has decided to institute border controls to prevent any further influx of migrants.
Whether these controls will be effective is unclear, but similar or more severe restrictions are likely to be imposed by other European countries.
Austria, Italy, Hungary and Poland will act to block any inflows of migrants across their borders. The Schengen agreement on freedom of movement, which the European Commission sees as one of the cornerstones of the EU and treats as a red line in Brexit negotiations, is collapsing.
Merkel’s decision to set up border controls is also unlikely to stem the advance of the far-Right in Germany.
Before the election last year, the then German vice chancellor and foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel told Der Spiegel that if the AfD entered the Bundestag, Nazis would speak in the German parliament for the first time in 70 years. When the AfD did just that, all other German parties vowed to refuse to work with them.
![Angela Merkel's decision to set up border controls is also unlikely to stem the advance of the far- Right in Germany](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/07/27/01/4E8F287000000578-5997663-image-a-28_1532651501348.jpg)
Angela Merkel’s decision to set up border controls is also unlikely to stem the advance of the far- Right in Germany
But Merkel has survived only because these parties fear the further advance of the AfD that would almost certainly follow if she stepped down and triggered another election.
It seems to me a safe bet that some years from now Germany will follow Italy and admit the far-Right into government.
Leavers are routinely abused for being unrealistic, and there may be some who have had an over-simple view of Britain’s post-Brexit place in an unstable world. But to my mind, doctrinaire Remainers are far more unrealistic about the stability of the EU.
Soon after the referendum, I argued that Brexit was only the first in a succession of electoral revolts that would break out across the continent. Because parties of the centre identified so closely with the European project, the danger was these revolts would be led by the far-Right. This is happening. Yet few Remainers seem to have noticed.
Some may point to the French president Emmanuel Macron as proof of a counter-trend.
But Macron’s fate is uncertain. It should not be forgotten that over a third of those who voted in the final round of the presidential elections last year opted for Marine Le Pen, despite the National Rally party leader reverting to her father’s racist rhetoric.
If Macron’s unpopular economic policies fail to produce positive results for voters soon, it will be the far-Right — and maybe the far-Left, which is equally hostile to the EU — that will benefit.
![Some may point to the French president Emmanuel Macron as proof of a counter-trend](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/07/27/01/4E9A306900000578-5997663-image-a-29_1532651520139.jpg)
Some may point to the French president Emmanuel Macron as proof of a counter-trend
Remainers respond to the advance of the far-Right by demanding ‘more Europe’ — a more determined move to a transnational European state. They reject the suggestion — I would say fact — that it is this very project that has fuelled the advance of anti-liberal forces across the continent.
By attempting to remove immigration from the jurisdiction of national governments, the EU has left many people with the sense they have no control over their lives.
The result of pushing for a transnational government that most Europeans do not want has been the rise of the worst kinds of nationalism.
That is why borders are reappearing throughout the EU.
Of course, bien-pensant Remainers will say this is an expression of popular racism. But if you call anyone who demands democratic control of immigration a ‘racist’, do not be surprised if many of them elect real racists. One of Italy’s new leaders is calling for a register of Roma people. Europe has heard this sort of thing before.
For its most devoted disciples, there is nothing wrong with the European project. It simply has not yet been applied in a pure manner.
But isn’t this what every blinkered ideologue says about their fantasy of a new world?
There are still people who will tell you that the former Soviet Union began to practise large-scale repression only under Stalin, who distorted Lenin’s original vision.
Historical facts show this is not so — mass arrests, systematic killing and the Gulag all began under Lenin.
The indifference to facts of totalitarian ideologies is well known. What is new is a type of liberalism that has also immunised itself against facts.
Liberals like to think they are empiricists — in other words, they learn from experience. But ideological Remainers have learnt nothing from the march of the far-Right across the European continent.
No fact will ever dislodge their conviction that Europe represents freedom and progress and Britain the reactionary past.
No doubt Britain has many faults. A virulent new strain of anti-Semitism has emerged in politics — mostly on the far- Left. But we have nothing like the large far-Right movements that exist in nearly every continental European country.
Unlike some European states, Britain remains a liberal democracy.
The upshot of Brexit is unclear. Some believe it may be derailed. I think this is unlikely. But if Brexit is overturned it will be ironic. Under the banner of a march to a more liberal future, Britain will blunder back into a rerun of a dark European past.
John Gray is Emeritus Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics. This article is adapted from an essay on BBC Radio 4’s Point Of View programme.