I pray I’m wrong. But this is the day I fear America will spill into all-out civil chaos, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN

Here’s a disturbing scenario as we wait to find out who becomes the next President of the United States.

All the polls are suggesting a tight battle. Much of the rhetoric suggests whatever the outcome it will a contested result, with recounts in key battleground states.

A Supreme Court challenge not unlike what happened back in 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore isn’t out of the question either.

And there is even the potential for a tie in the Electoral College votes.

When you consider how volatile US politics is right now, what both presidential candidates are saying about one another, and in the context of claims the 2020 election was stolen which lead to riots in Capitol, a drawn out process to determine the next President will create enormous tensions.

And here is where a potential nightmare scenario could unfold.

It would be the President of the Senate, as the constitutionally appointed officer who certifies the presidential election outcome at a joint congressional sitting, who ultimately declares the winner.

Guess who that is? Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, that’s who!

Trump supporters would go wild. Trump would go wild, writes Peter van Onselen 

Imagine a scenario in which, after all of the potential recounts and court challenges and claims of a rigged election, Harris then signs off on her own victory.

Trump supporters would go wild. Trump would go wild.

Alternatively, she’ll face the indignity of signing off on Trump’s win – after all the nasty things he’s said about her and her campaign.

But it is the first scenario that is the one likely to cause instability.

The date of the joint sitting is January 6 next year. In such a set of circumstances tensions will escalate and the previous riots in DC might look tame in comparison. Back then it was Trump’s VP Mike Pence who signed off on Joe Biden’s win, and even that simple constitutionally defined duty was considered controversial by some Trump supporters.

No script writer for the most edgy of political thrillers could come up with a more juicy scenario than a highly likely scenario once all the votes are counted.

But before we get there, today we’ll watch at the votes roll in. Assuming all other state by state results go as expected, there are seven key battleground states:

1. Michigan

2. Pennsylvania

3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina

5. Arizona

6. Georgia

7. Nevada

The first three are the so-called ‘blue wall’. The traditional working class rust belt of America supported Biden last time. If all three states back Harris this time, she almost certainly wins.

In contrast as long as Trump wins back North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia – all of which he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016 – he can win by only reclaiming one state within the blue wall to be victorious.

Nevada is a very small state, but it becomes interesting depending on where other states land because who wins it could turn the result into an electoral college tie, which send the result to Congress to decide the winner.

So sit back, watch the results roll in, but don’t make the mistake of assuming early leads matter. American elections see big shifts as chunks of votes come in for particular areas that vote very differently to one another, shifting the numbers you’ll see dramatically and suddenly. 

My kiss of death? A Trump victory… but that’s more of a guess than a prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong. 

This election is just too close to call.