Doctors fear Covid-19 infections in India could climb to 500,000 per day before the virus-stricken nation reaches the peak of its second wave.
Another 2,263 deaths and 332,730 cases were reported in India yesterday, although limited testing means this is likely to significantly underestimate the total.
The infection total marked the highest one-day tally of any nation since the start of the pandemic – the second time in as many days India has broken the record.
However, leading virologist Shahid Jameel today warned that India has still yet to hit the peak of its second wave, with studies suggesting it may record 500,000 cases per day in the first week of May.
He told Radio 4: ‘People who do modelling studies do suggest that India will hit a peak somewhere towards the end of the first week of May, and we may climb up to about 500,000 cases per day, possibly more.’
India’s current fatality rate per 100,000 cases is 1.14 per cent, meaning if the nation reaches this anticipated peak there is the potential for 5,700 deaths per day.
Hospitals across India are buckling under the strain of a ferocious second wave, with some running out of oxygen and turning away patients due to overcrowding.
Dr Jameel, who is the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University, said the nation of around 1.4 billion people needs to contain the surge by ‘treating as many people as possible at home.’
Doctors fear Covid-19 infections in India could climb to 500,000 per day before the virus-stricken nation reaches the peak of its second wave. Pictured: Medical staff in New Delhi today
Another 2,263 deaths and 332,730 cases were reported in India yesterday, although limited testing means this is likely to significantly underestimate the total. Pictured: New Delhi
Hospitals across India are buckling under the strain of a ferocious second wave, with some running out of oxygen and turning away patients due to overcrowding. Pictured: New Delhi today
India’s current fatality rate per 100,000 cases is 1.14 per cent, meaning if the nation reaches this anticipated peak there is the potential for 5,700 deaths per day
He added the government needs to do ‘everything possible’ to speed up the supply of oxygen and medicine to those in need, revealing the harrowing plight of families desperately searching for supplies.
People have been begging for oxygen or medical help on social media, and crowds have gathered outside hospitals, with some dying on stretchers as they wait.
On Wednesday, 22 patients died at a hospital in Maharashtra when their oxygen supply ran out after a leak in the tank. Yesterday 13 Covid patients died when a fire broke out at a Mumbai hospital.
‘My family has gone through a harrowing experience in the past week, we had a cousin into hospital who passed away two days back and every 24 hours there was a threat of cut-off of oxygen,’ Dr Jameel said.
The UK is ‘looking at what we can do to help’ after India recorded a record-breaking 332,000 new cases in a single day. Pictured, relatives of covid patients wait in queues to refill oxygen cylinders in Delhi
Health workers carry a patient after a fire in Vijay Vallabh COVID-19 hospital at Virar, near Mumbai, India
Daily infections hit 332,730 on Friday, up from 314,835 the previous day when India set a new record, surpassing one set by the United States in January of 297,430 new cases
The daily death toll also jumped to a record 2,263 yesterday, though these fatalities could be at least ten times under-reported amid a second wave more than three times the size of the first
‘In the end he didn’t make it, but the mental torture of relatives searching for oxygen was just unbearable. Unfortunately the situation is very bad, we let down our guard and that’s why we’re in this situation.’
India is recording one in three of all worldwide Covid-19 cases, despite its Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying in February that the nation was ‘inspiring the world’ with its Covid fight.
Pictured: Dr Shahid Jameel, the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University
Ministers had declared a victory when there were around 11,000 cases a day.
The surge has been fuelled by a ‘double mutant’ variant, thought to be more infectious, but Dr Jameel says ‘too much’ has been made of the mutation.
Instead, he claims the spiralling infection rates were impacted by the lack of messaging for people to take vaccinations in January and February when case numbers were down.
He added: ‘In all the euphoria, in all the patting of our backs that we have done so well, we are out of it, we weren’t. We were just as susceptible as anybody else.
‘So if there is a lesson here to be learned, it’s that you have to be on your guard. You have to prepare. We should have been stocking up on oxygen.
‘We should have been messaging clearly for people to take vaccines in the months of January and February when the cases were down.
‘If that happened at scale at that time, then we wouldn’t be facing this situation today.
‘So many things have gone wrong but instead of crying over spilled milk I think it’s important to learn some lessons, get some good data, and plan for the future because this is not the end of it.’’
The percentage change in daily Covid infections by Indian state today compared to at their peak, most of which were recorded last year
Burning pyres of Covid-19 deceased persons at a crematorium in India
Health workers wearing personal protection equipment (PPE) move the body of a person who died of coronavirus at a mortuary, in New Delhi
The latest warning comes as Boris Johnson last night pledged to support India in its battle against the devastating Covid surge which has brought the country to its knees.
The UK is ‘looking at what we can do to help’ after India recorded a record-breaking 332,000 new cases in a single day.
Mr Johnson said: ‘We’re looking at what we can do to help and support the people of India, possibly with ventilators.
‘Thanks to the ventilator challenge, the huge efforts of British manufacturers, we’re better able now to deliver ventilators to other countries.
‘But also possibly with therapeutics, dexamethasone, other things, we’ll look at what we can do to help.’
So far 132 cases of the Indian variant have been detected in Britain, around half of which are in London.
The variant contains two mutations in the virus’s spike protein, which could help it spread more easily and evade vaccines.
India was added to the UK’s travel ‘red list’ yesterday, prompting a last-minute scramble for flights to Heathrow.
The Prime Minister has also cancelled a trip to New Delhi this weekend where he had hoped to secure millions of vaccine doses.
A man carries an oxygen tank as health workers move a suspected COVID-19 patient outside the Vijay Vallabh Covid care hospital in the aftermath of a fire, in Virar West, on the outskirts of Mumbai
Health workers attend patient at a Covid-19 centre in Mumbai, India, on Thursday
Yesterday Government scientists said border measures are not enough to prevent the spread of new variants, but they can delay it.
One senior source said there were likely to be ‘many more’ cases of the Indian variant in the UK than the 132 detected so far.
They added: ‘It does look like it’s more transmissible but we don’t know if it is more transmissible than the Kent variant and we don’t have any data on vaccine efficacy.’
Families and medics have made desperate pleas for supplies on social media as the nation struggles to keep up with demand for oxygen inside its hospitals.
Dr Atul Gogia, who works at a hospital in New Delhi, said: ‘We do have oxygen but it’s now on a day-to-day basis. We got some oxygen last night, so we have some oxygen now.’
He told Radio 4: ‘We do not have enough oxygen points, patients are coming in with their own oxygen, others without, we want to help them but there are not enough beds or oxygen points, and not enough oxygen to supply them.’
Max Healthcare, which runs hospitals in northern and western India, appealed on Twitter yesterday for oxygen.
‘We regret to inform that we are suspending any new patient admissions in all our hospitals in Delhi until oxygen supplies stabilise,’ it said.
The government has started shuttling trains containing tanks of oxygen across the country to hotspots.
Crematoriums are also overwhelmed, with one in Delhi resorting to building pyres, on which bodies are burnt, in its car park.
Dying Covid sufferers lie on stretchers outside Indian hospitals while other medical centres stop accepting patients as the country sees ANOTHER record number of infections and deaths
Dying coronavirus patients have been left to lie on stretchers outside Indian hospitals as doctors were today forced to turn patients away amid another record-breaking rise in cases and deaths.
Daily infections hit 332,730, up from 314,835 on Thursday when India surpassed a grim record set by the United States in January.
Another 2,263 deaths were reported – though the true figure is believed to be up to ten times higher.
Delhi recorded more than 26,000 new cases and 306 deaths, or about one fatality every five minutes, the fastest since the pandemic began.
Doctors in the city of 29 million have no more beds left and police have been deployed around hospitals to prevent oxygen from being looted as infections stand at more than treble their peak last year.
Sky News captured images of dozens of people lying on stretchers outside one overcrowded hospital in the capital. In the minutes of the short live report, at least three dead bodies were seen being wheeled out of the front doors of the medical centre.
Patients lie on stretchers outside a hospital in Delhi during a live TV broadcast. Sky TV said during its report that they saw dozens of dead bodies being wheeled out of the hospital while they were there, while others wait with oxygen tanks rigged up beside outdoor stretchers for those who are unable to get inside
People stand in a queue to refill oxygen in cylinders in Delhi on Friday. Police have been deployed at hospitals in the city to prevent oxygen from being looted as people are prepared to pay thousands of rupees to fill up cylinders
A patient, wearing an oxygen mask, sits outside Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan Hospital, one of India’s largest facilities for coronavirus disease, in Delhi today
But while northern states like Gujurat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are experiencing coronavirus infection rates which are more than quadruple what they were in the first wave, others to the south, like Andrha Pradesh, and in the far northeast, like Assam, have not yet experienced a second wave and aren’t under lockdown rules.
This suggests that though the overall numbers for India are colossal, they could still climb higher, putting further strain on the country’s overwhelmed healthcare system which is running short of basic anti-viral medications.
Britain banned travel from India today amid fears that a new variant is causing the virus to spread faster and hitting young people harder.
Prof James Naismith, of the University of Oxford, told MailOnline: ‘What is happening in India is stark illustration of the havoc that rapid spread of the virus does; healthcare overwhelmed and vulnerable people suffocating to death in ambulances waiting for help.
‘This might be an appropriate point for those who so blithely advocated ending the UK lockdown in the autumn and winter to reconsider their analysis.
Relatives carry the body of a man who died from coronavirus during his funeral in Delhi on Friday
Bodies of Covid victims are burned in funeral pyres at a cremation ground in Mumbai on Friday
A fire in a hospital in Virar, on the outskirts of Mumbai treating Covid 19 patients killed 13 people on Friday, the latest accident in the overcrowded health system. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it ‘tragic,’ approving payouts for the victims’ relatives (pictured: the ICU ward of the hospital is inspected after the blaze)
‘The UK has avoided the fate that has befallen India (and many other countries who we do not see on our TV) because of the action of our governments and every one of us who wore a mask, distanced, washed our hands and isolated when sick. Vaccination now means that we will not ever see such scenes from Covid-19 here.’
It comes as a fire broke out at a packed hospital outside Mumbai on Friday, leaving 13 people dead.
Narendra Modi called it ‘tragic’ as he approved payouts for the victims’ relatives, but the PM faces growing criticism for staging election rallies despite hospitals running out of beds and oxygen tankers being escorted by armed guards.
On Wednesday, 22 patients died at a public hospital in Maharashtra state when their oxygen supply ran out after a leak in the tank. At least nine coronavirus patients died in a previous hospital fire in Mumbai on March 26.
As well as a lack of oxygen and even basic medicines, free beds have become scarce, with major hospitals putting up notices saying they have no room for any more patients and police being deployed to secure oxygen supplies.
Health workers shift a patient after a fire in Vijay Vallabh hospital in Virar, near Mumbai on Friday
Worshippers offer Friday prayers at a mosque during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in Amritsar in Punjab, northern India
The burnt out inside of the intensive care ward at the hospital, which is just north of Mumbai, the latest accident in the country’s overwhelmed hospitals amid a colossal second wave of Covid. On Wednesday, 22 patients died at a public hospital in Maharashtra state when their oxygen supply ran out after a leak in the tank. At least nine coronavirus patients died in a hospital fire in Mumbai on March 26.
Atul Gogia, a front line doctor in Delhi, told Radio 4 this morning: ‘It’s really, really very hectic, both physically mentally emotionally, it’s a challenging day. Everything is full we are over-pressed, staff is catching the disease so we are short of staff as well.
‘We do have oxygen but it’s now on a day to day basis. We got some oxygen last night, so we have some oxygen now.
‘There is such a huge surge we do not have places in the emergency room. We do not have enough oxygen points, patients are coming in with their own oxygen, others without, we want to help them but there are not enough beds or oxygen points, and not enough oxygen to supply them even if they are were.’
Saswati Sinha, an intensive care doctor in Kolkota, said the situation in the city was similar to Delhi, though perhaps lagging around two weeks behind.
‘But we are already overwhelmed,’ he told the BBC. ‘All of our wards, all of our critical care beds are already at capacity.
‘We are getting direct calls from our patients, from our friends, from our neighbours, pleading with us to make some space for their next of kin.
‘In 20 years of working in intensive care I have never seen anything like this in the past. It is completely emotionally, physically and mentally exhausting.’
A policeman inspects a burnt-out room at the Vijay Vallabh Hospital in Virar, on the outskirts of Mumbai
The burnt out hospital in Virar, north of Mumbai, after a fire killed 13 Covid patients, in the latest accident in the country’s overcrowded hospitals
A patient suffering from the coronavirus disease is evacuated from the hospital after it caught fire in Virar, on the outskirts of Mumbai
Max Healthcare, which runs a network of hospitals in northern and western India, posted an appeal on Twitter on Friday for emergency supplies of oxygen at its facility in Delhi.
‘We regret to inform that we are suspending any new patient admissions in all our hospitals in Delhi … till oxygen supplies stabilise,’ the company said.
Similar desperate calls from hospitals and ordinary people have been posted on social media for days this week across the country.
Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan in the United States, said it was now as if there was no social safety net for Indians.
‘Everyone is fighting for their own survival and trying to protect their loved ones. This is hard to watch,’ he said.
In Delhi, people losing loved ones are turning to makeshift facilities that are undertaking mass burials and cremations because funeral services have been swamped.
A man walks past burning funeral pyres of people, who died due to the coronavirus disease at a crematorium ground in New Delhi, India, on Thursday
A mass cremation of victims who died due to the coronavirus disease is seen at a crematorium ground in Delhi yesterday evening
A body lies on a gurney as funeral pyres burn at a mass cremation ground in Delhi on Wednesday evening
Amid the despair, recriminations have begun.
Health experts say India became complacent in the winter – when new cases were running at about 10,000 a day and seemed to be under control – and lifted restrictions to allow big gatherings.
‘Indians let down their collective guard. Instead of being bombarded with messages exhorting us to be vigilant, we heard self-congratulatory declarations of victory from our leaders, now cruelly exposed as mere self-assured hubris,’ wrote Zarir F Udwadia, a pulmonologist and a member of the Maharashtra state government’s task force, in the Times of India.
Modi’s government ordered an extensive lockdown last year in the early stages of the pandemic.
But it has been wary of the economic costs and upheaval to the lives of legions of migrant workers and day labourers of a reimposition of sweeping restrictions.
New more infectious variants of the virus, in particular a ‘double mutant’ variant that originated in India, may have helped accelerate the surge, experts said.
Canada has banned flights from India, joining Britain, United Arab Emirates, Singapore and New Zealand in blocking arrivals.