The citizens of Iran will head to the polls tomorrow to cast their vote in presidential elections, with West-hating ultra-conservative candidates battling it out against a reformer who is an advocate for women’s rights – and wants to make nice with the White House.
The hotly anticipated election follows weeks after previous leader Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a fiery crash when his helicopter nosedived into a mountainside, and comes at a particularly tumultuous time for the Islamic Republic.
Unlike Western counterparts, an Iranian president has limited influence over the politics of his nation as all policies must align with the will of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with whom the ultimate control of the country rests.
But as Tehran’s main representative on the world stage, the president is undoubtedly a crucial figure – particularly when Iran’s arch-enemy Israel is at war with Hamas and Hezbollah, while ally Russia is waging war on Western-backed Ukraine.
The victor will also be charged with improving Iran’s economic woes – the suffering rial has lost some 94% of its value in just the past ten years with inflation sitting at a brutal 40% in the face of ongoing Western sanctions.
Here, MailOnline breaks down the Iranian ballot, digs into the past of every candidate and explains who is most likely to rise to power.
In this picture made available by Iranian state-run TV, IRIB, presidential candidates for June 28, election from left to right: Masoud Pezeshkian, Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi (dropped out), Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and Saeed Jalili pose for a photo after the conclusion of their debate at the TV studio in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, June 25, 2024
The hotly anticipated election follows weeks after previous leader Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a fiery crash when his helicopter nosedived into a mountainside (wreckage pictured)
Former President Ebrahim Raisi died on May 20 in a helicopter crash along with several other high-ranking figures, including the foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
Iranian demonstrators burn representations of British and U.S. flags during a protest against the US and British military strike against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 12, 2024
A heart surgeon, a cleric and a peg-leg nuclear negotiator walk into a cafe…
It sounds like the start of the worst joke you’ve ever heard – but it is in fact an accurate description of three of the five candidates running to become president.
The five-strong ballot – down from six after one candidate dropped out late last night – is made up of one surprise reformist and four conservatives, each more hardline than the last.
This list is likely to contract before the first vote is cast, with history telling us that several candidates could well withdraw moments before the election to back a rival in the hopes they will earn a cushy promotion in the new government for doing so.
The election is widely considered a two-horse race between a pair of conservative candidates – but such infighting could also play into the hands of the sole pro-Western reformist who has condemned Iran’s morality police and violence against women.
Despite orders to the contrary from Khamenei, voter turnout is expected to be at an all-time low with many Iranians disillusioned by the state of the nation’s politics, meaning a candidate may not need much support to edge his rivals.
Saeed Jalili
Jalili, 58, is a ruthlessly anti-Western, ultra-conservative candidate who is advocating for an even more austere society.
Born on September 6, 1965 in Mashhad, he was just 15 when Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces invaded Iran, and a young Jalili was keen to go to war.
He is known as the ‘Living Martyr’ – a title he earned after he had his foot and part of his leg blown off in the bloody Siege of Basra.
After the war ended in 1988, he launched a career in politics, joining the foreign ministry and carving out a career in diplomacy that saw him uphold strict policy measures rooted in Islamic values.
He also developed a particular disdain for the West and marked himself out as a staunch ideologue while working as an advisor to the hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005.
In the course of his duties as presidential aide, Jalili penned a huge letter addressed to the then-US president George W. Bush which was effectively an 18-page criticism and disregard of the Western liberal democratic system.
He then went on to lead Iran’s nuclear programme negotiations between 2007 and 2013, and strongly opposed the 2015 ‘JCPOA’ nuclear deal with the United States and Western governments.
The deal aimed to curb Tehran’s nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief – but Donald Trump withdrew America from the agreement in 2018 and slapped Iran with ongoing sanctions.
Jalili was later selected by Ayatollah Khamenei as one of his representatives in Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and remains a trusted advisor to the Supreme Leader.
Under Jalili, Iranian citizens can expect to endure even more restrictive policies and a crackdown on the already limited freedoms they enjoy – not to mention a doubling down on Tehran’s anti-Western rhetoric under Raisi that is sure to lead to yet more sanctions and misery for the people.
Iranian presidential candidate and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili
Iran’s former top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili waves to media while registering his name as a candidate for the June 28 presidential election at the Interior Ministry in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, May 30, 2024
Saeed Jalili, a former Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, speaks with state-run TV reporter during his campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 24, 2024
Supporters of Iranian presidential hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili cheer during an election campaign in Tehran, Iran, 24 June 2024
Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei greets crowd before delivering a speech in Tehran, Iran on June 25, 2024
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf
Qalibaf, 62, is Iran’s speaker of the parliament and another prominent conservative who is going toe-to-toe with Jalili.
Born on September 23, 1961 near Jalili’s home city of Mashhad, Qalibaf has held a slew of top roles in the Islamic Republic including the Chief of Police, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ air force, and the Mayor of Tehran.
But he also sports a sorry record in presidential elections, having previously run for office three times, emerging unsuccessful from every campaign.
Qalibaf is also a preferred candidate of Ayatollah Khamenei, who personally appointed him as head of the Guards’ air force in 1997 and subsequently the head of the police force in 2000.
And he was a close friend and confidant of the notorious Qasem Soleimani, the former head of the IRCG’s Quds force who was designated a terrorist in 2005 by the US – and was assassinated in a drone strike outside Baghdad airport in 2020 on the orders of Donald Trump.
Qalibaf himself has been embroiled in his fair share of controversy, having battled claims of embezzlement and involvement in an intricate fraud scheme in the country’s capital.
The speaker is seen by Jalili’s supporters as being too soft. They criticise him for not being a strict adherent to Islamic values, and claim he would be willing to entertain negotiations with the West.
He is certainly a more moderate conservative candidate – but Iran’s citizens can hardly expect Qalibaf to usher in a new age of freedom.
Conservative Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, addresses a rally June 26, 2024 in Tehran
Iran’s conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf addresses supporters during his election campaign ahead of a presidential vote to replace the late president, in the Iranian capital Tehran on June 26, 2024
Qalibaf reacts as he addresses supporters during an election campaign ahead of a presidential vote to replace the late president, in the Iranian capital Tehran on June 26, 2024
Qalibaf was a close friend and confidant of the notorious Qasem Soleimani (pictured), the former head of the IRCG’s Quds force who was designated a terrorist in 2005 by the US – and was assassinated in a drone strike outside Baghdad airport in 2020
Massoud Pezeshkian
Pezeshkian, 69, is both the oldest candidate and the sole reformist taking part in the presidential race, and stands to benefit from the bitter battle between Jalili and Qalibaf whose rivalry is dividing voters.
An ethnic Azeri from Iran’s West Azerbaijan province, he is an outspoken heart surgeon who has represented the northwestern city of Tabriz in parliament since 2008.
While Jalili was fighting on the frontlines of the Iran-Iraq war, Pezeshkian was saving the lives of stricken soldiers as a medic, before going on to become one of the country’s leading surgeons and health minister in the government of former reformist president Mohammad Khatami.
Pezeshkian has attempted a run at the presidency once before in 2021 when Raisi was elected, but was disqualified after Ayatollah Khamenei refused to allow reformers and more moderate candidates to stand for election.
His chances of winning are certainly slimmer than the above candidates, but he has carved out a groundswell of support among the youth, ethnic minorities and Iran’s women.
As part of his campaign, Pezeshkian criticised Raisi’s government for its ruthless crackdown on protesters who turned out in their droves after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini following her brutal arrest and treatment at the hands of Iran’s ‘morality police’.
Pezeshkian said Raisi’s government lacked transparency over the incident and questioned the official narrative surrounding her death, declaring that he will advocate against the use of violence on women who do not wear a hijab.
He is also the only pro-Western candidate in the race, and has openly stated his desire to re-enter negotiations with Washington to strike up a new nuclear deal that would see Iran curb its nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief.
In short, Pezeshkian is the only candidate who would likely bring about meaningful change in Iran.
Reformist candidate for Iran’s presidential election Masoud Pezeshkian waves to his supporters in his campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 23, 2024
Reformist candidate for Iran’s June 28, presidential election Masoud Pezeshkian, bottom centre, flashes the victory sign in his campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 23, 2024
Massoud Pezeshkian taking part in a televised election debate at the Iran State television studio in Tehran
Supporters of reformist Iranian presidential candidate Massoud Pezeshkian lift his portraits during a rally in Tehran on June 26, 2024
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
Pourmohammadi, 64, is the only cleric in Iran’s presidential elections and a veteran politician who has seemingly undergone a transformation from religious ideologue to new-age moderate.
He was born on December 23, 1959 in the religious city of Qom, and is a stalwart of Iran’s judicial and security apparatus, holding various positions including Head of Foreign Intelligence, Interior Minister and Justice Minister.
In recent times he has revealed a major tilt away from traditional conservative values in favour of more moderate and in some cases reformist positions.
He sensationally declared he would disband Iran’s infamous morality police and has spoken out against Tehran’s banning of social media – policies that Pezeshkian’s supporters worry could attract the desperately needed reformist votes.
Like Pezeshkian, Pourmohammadi has also spoken of the necessity of re-engaging with the West to aid Iran’s suffering economy and restore lost freedoms to the public.
But this political transformation belies a chequered past.
Alongside the former president Ebrahim Raisi, Pourmohammadi was a member of the four-man ‘death committee’ – a commission of high-ranking judicial and security figures believed to have been integral in ordering the execution and torture of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 – particularly members of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK).
The MEK was a political movement that helped to overthrow the Shah of Iran in the 1979 revolution but advocated for a democratic system of governance.
Instead, Ruhollah Khomeini seized lifelong rule as Iran’s Supreme Leader and vested power in the country’s Islamic clerics.
Nine years later, he gave an order to his government – including Pourmohammadi – to conduct the ruthless campaign of executions and torture to expunge his detractors.
A handout photo made available by the Iranian state TV (IRIB) shows, Iranian presidency candidate Mostafa Pourmohammadi during a TV debate ahead of the presidential elections, in Tehran, Iran, 25 June 2024
Tehran’s conservative mayor Alireza Zakani taking part in a televised election debate at the Iran State television studio in Tehran
Iranian presidential candidate Alireza Zakani speaks during an election campaign in Tehran, Iran, 23 June 2024
A supporter holds of a portrait of presidential election’s candidate Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani during his campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 23, 2024
Alireza Zakani
Zakani, 58, is an ultraconservative who has served as Tehran’s mayor since August 2021.
Born in the capital on April 2, 1965, he too is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, and was a candidate in the 2021 presidential election before withdrawing to support Raisi.
Like Jalili, he is a staunch critic of the 2015 nuclear deal, but is willing to pursue a more diplomatic track, claiming he would be able to alleviate the brutal economic sanctions to which Iran is subject via shrewd negotiations with Western governments.
He has taken what could be called somewhat of a populist approach to his presidential campaign, declaring that he would usher in free healthcare for the old, stimulation payments to the poor and a raft of economic policies that would return Iran’s currency, the rial, to prominence.
But he is lagging far behind the other candidates and is unlikely to win any meaningful percentage of votes, with many expecting him to drop out of the race in favour of Jalili or Qalibaf.
Until last night there was a sixth candidate – the Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi – but he withdrew from the race and urged other candidates to do the same ‘so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened’.
He has not yet said whether he will endorse one of the other candidates, but again would likely line up behind Jalili given his ultraconservative stance.
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