Iran has increased uranium stockpile 32x since 2015, UN watchdog warns

Iran’s estimated stockpile of enriched uranium has reached more than 32 times the limit set in a key nuclear deal, the UN watchdog warned in a report seen today. The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that as of October 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August.

Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran had capped its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief and other key provisions as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but reportedly returned to the program after the US backed out under Donald Trump in 2018.

By the IAEA’s theoretical definition, around 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which making a nuclear bomb with it cannot be excluded. The IAEA did confirm that Iran was starting to prepare to stop increasing its enriched stockpile of uranium. ‘The agency verified… that Iran had begun implementation of preparatory measures aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 percent,’ the report assessed.

Iran last week offered not to expand its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%, during a visit to Tehran by the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi. The IAEA said during the meetings, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 was discussed, including technical verification measures necessary for the Agency to confirm this, if implemented.”

Iran was reported to have returned to increasing production late last year after a slowdown believed to have been linked to secret talks with Washington leading to the release of US citizens held in Iran. The IAEA reported in December that Iran had ‘increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023’.

It comes as part of a resurgence of Iranian activity following the US’ withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The JCPOA refers to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement made between Iran, the EU and the P5+1 in 2015 to limit Iran’s enrichment program. Under the deal, Iran had agreed to cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, limit its enrichment activities and convert facilities to avoid further risk of nuclear proliferation.

By 2018, the IAEA was reporting that Iran was committing to its agreement after installing surveillance across plants. But by April, the US and Israel alleged Iran had not disclosed a past covert program before then-President Donald Trump announced the US would withdraw from the JCPOA to reach a new deal. In 2020, Iran said it would no longer abide by the terms of the deal but would continue to work with the IAEA, leaving the door open for a revised agreement.

President Biden had pledged to reinstate the 2015 nuclear agreement and reduce tensions with Iran, but leaves the next administration with more challenges in the region. Trump’s approach of hitting Iran with ‘maximum sanctions’ by withdrawing is not believed to have had the desired effect, with Iran somewhat stabilizing its economy within years.

The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran. Israel reported today that it had hit part of Iran’s nuclear programme last month, despite US pleas to avoid striking sensitive targets in fear of retaliation. Adding to the complexity, Donald Trump’s reelection raises questions about whether and how the incoming administration and Iran may engage.

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