Iran rejects ‘impudent’ calls to stand down threat to attack Israel

Iran today rejected the ‘impudent’ calls from the West to de-escalate its threat against Israel over the alleged killings of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month. The Iranian foreign ministry said calls to stand down from Britain, France and Germany ‘lack political logic and contradict principles of international law’, after the three powers made a statement yesterday urging calm and restraint.

Haniyeh was killed with a ‘short-range projectile’ fired outside his guesthouse during a visit to Tehran on July 31, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC), prompting threats of retribution against Israel. Israel has not claimed responsibility. Israel was responsible for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Skukr in Beirut several hours prior, drawing outcry from the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group – and potentially throwing a hostage deal into jeopardy. As tensions simmer, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have approved a multi-front battle plan against Tehran and Hezbollah, limiting troops’ travel abroad as they brace for an attack in the coming days – and prepare to retaliate.

Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, lamented that the joint statement from Britain, France and Germany ‘impudently requires Iran not to respond to a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity’. He instead challenged the Europeans to ‘once and for all stand up against the war in Gaza and the warmongering of Israel’. The original statement, dated August 12, called on Iran and its allies to ‘refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages’ still held in Gaza.

The letter, signed by French President Emmanuel Macron , German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Iran would ‘bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability’. It followed the latest warning from new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, insisting Iran has ‘the right to respond’ to any aggression on its soil, following the death of Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah has also vowed a major response against Israel for the assassination of Shukr in Beirut. Israel has reportedly conveyed messages to allies that it will respond with an attack on Iranian territory if attacked, even if there are no casualties, pushing its allies to seek carve out diplomatic channels with Iran themselves.

Sir Keir and Pezeshkian spoke on the phone last night in a bid to cool tensions, the Prime Minister reiterating his ‘concern’ about the situation and calling on all parties to ‘de-escalate’. He added that there was a ‘serious risk of miscalculation and now was the time for calm and careful consideration’, according to a readout of the conversation from No10. ‘While emphasizing diplomatic solutions to issues, Iran will never give in to pressure, to sanctions and to bullying, and considers it has the right to respond to aggressors in accordance with international norms,’ Pezeshkian said in his call to Scholz. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline this evening ‘it could all very easily spiral out of control’.

‘In essence, I think Iran and Israel would both prefer to avoid escalation out of control,’ he said. ‘But Iran (and Hezbollah) both want to be seen to respond to the Israeli assassinations. ‘Calibrating such responses in such a way as to save face and yet avoid escalation gets more difficult with each successive round of skirmishing. ‘The US is also part of this picture, seeking both to restrain Israel and to deter Iran,’ he said. In its bid to deter Iran, the United States has sought to increase its military presence in the region. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday that President Joe Biden is in talks with European allies about reinforcing Israel with supplies, fearing retaliation from Iran as soon as this week .

The US Defence Department said that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had ordered a guided missile submarine to travel to the Middle East and told the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to hurry its approach to the region. The threat of regional escalation also appears to have interrupted ceasefire talks, with Hamas on Sunday casting doubt over plan to join a diplomatic meeting on Thursday to hash out peace terms. But onlookers believe neither Iran nor Israel has the appetite for wider escalation of the conflict, and will look to de-escalate after a show of force to ‘save face’.

‘All sides don’t want all out war,’ Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor of Security Studies at King’s College London, told MailOnline upon news of Haniyeh’s death. ‘All sides want to maintain their reputation. Nobody wants to lose face. These people are replaceable. ‘All sides will find a way in this tit-for-tat escalation to respond in measure beyond a certain ceiling… all sides have been pushing the threshold but on all accounts they have always tried not to breach it.’

Dr Krieg suggested that the death of Haniyeh could ultimately assist Israel in building a ‘victory narrative’ to enter peace talks with a claim to having achieved its war objectives of vanquishing Hamas and returning the hostages taken on October 7. ‘What this offers is a head on a silver platter,’ he said. ‘Netanyahu can say this is the end of the organisation. And that’s pretty much as close as Israel will ever get to defeating Hamas.

‘But that can only work if Israel says now ‘we’re willing to enter ceasefire talks.” The conflict erupted on October 7 when Hamas and affiliated factions launched a brutal incursion into southern Israel, killing some 1,170 people and taking some 250 hostage. Israel has responded with a devastating campaign across the Gaza Strip, displacing the majority of the population and killing nearly 40,000 people, according to the local Health Ministry. Mediators have spent months trying to get the sides to agree to a three-phase plan in which Hamas would release the remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and Israel would withdraw from Gaza.

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