Iran’s threat to the UK: How Tehran could decide to launch attacks on British soil as its conflict with Israel rages

Iran could target British overseas military bases and embassies if the UK offers direct support to Israel in its war with the rogue state, a military expert said today. 

The Islamic Republic has threatened to attack US, UK and French military forces if they help Israel block missile and drone retaliation for Friday’s attack on its nuclear programme. 

The number of Typhoon fighter jets stationed at RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus, which is just over 250 miles from Israel, has been bolstered in recent days. 

Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at RUSI, said an Iranian attack on Akrotiri was highly unlikely at present, but the risk could grow if the UK launched Typhoons from the base to defend Israel from Iranian drones

‘In theory, Iran might interpret that as direct intervention, but I still think it’s unlikely there would be a direct response as that could provoke the Americans,’ he told MailOnline. 

‘But Akrotiri would be the most visible UK base that is in reach of some of Iran’s capabilities. 

‘Otherwise you’d be looking at embassies or forward special forces bases in countries like Jordan, Iraq that they could theoretically attack using proxies or missiles.’

Embassies and overseas bases are considered UK sovereign territory, meaning an attack of them would be treated as a dramatic escalation of hostilities. Britain also has a number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and military personnel in Iraq.

The Islamic Republic has threatened to attack, US, UK and French military forces if they help Israel block missiles and drones retaliation. Pictured is Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks to soldiers at RAG Akrotiri in December last year

Smoke rises following what Iran says was an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot in Tehra yesterday 

Professor Bronk, who specialises in air power, described Iranian threats against the UK, America and France as an attempt to dissuade military support for Israel. 

‘It’s probably very unlikely at the moment that Iran would choose to retaliate for Israeli strikes against British bases because the Iranians are desperate to ensure the US does not join in with Israeli attacks, so broader aggression against Western countries would seem unwise,’ he said. 

‘But they still have an incentive to threaten attacks on Western forces to try and persuade those countries against getting involved.’

The military analyst pointed out that Iran had used similar tactics before.  

‘The primary Iranian deterrence vehicle has long been the ability to threaten attacks on personnel at bases throughout the Middle East with both local proxies or allied militia,’ he said. 

‘These are forces that are paid and supplied by the Iranians to conduct mortar, drone, IED or even direct attacks. 

‘Iran also has its own ballistic missile arsenal that it used to attack a base housing American personnel in Iraq following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.’

Professor Bronk’s analysis comes as Army chiefs consider sending Army troops to provide additional protection to Akrotiri as tensions in the region escalate.

An image released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) showing Israeli aircrew and technical teams preparing for the strikes on Iran

Iranian or Hezbollah ordnance fired at Akrotiri could be eliminated using Sky Sabre (pictured), a surface-to-air defensive weapon system

16 Regiment (RA), pictured in 2020, which includes radar, surveillance and guided weapons specialists, is among those being considered for deployment to the base, the Mail understands

In this scenario, military sources suggested troops from Royal Artillery units specialising in air defence would be readied for deployment.

16 Regiment (RA), which includes radar, surveillance and guided weapons specialists, is among those being considered, the Mail understands.

The regiment, which is part of the UK’s 7 Air Defence Group, is equipped with LEAPP surveillance technology which identifies all friendly and hostile aircraft over a range of 75 miles.

It also has ‘Giraffe’ 360-degree radars which have ‘vision’ over the same range.

Any incoming Iranian or Hezbollah ordnance could be eliminated using Sky Sabre, a surface-to-air defensive weapon system.

Sky Sabre can fire up to 24 missiles simultaneously, effective against ballistic missiles and drones.

According to the British Army, Sky Sabre could direct missiles to home in on a target as small as a tennis ball travelling at twice the speed of sound.

The additional RAF Typhoon aircraft deploying to Cyprus would be used in a defensive capacity, specifically to intercept incoming enemy ordnance.

Explained: The planning that went into Israel’s blitz which included smuggling drones into Iran dessert

The jets could protect UK assets in the region, including RAF Akrotiri itself, or be part of Israel’s panoply of defensive assets.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves yesterday opened the door to potential military action in support of Israel.

She told Sky News: ‘We have, in the past, supported Israel when there have been missiles coming in. I’m not going to comment on what might happen in the future.

‘But so far, we haven’t been involved… I’m not going to rule anything out at this stage. It’s a fast moving situation, a very volatile situation. But we don’t want to see escalation.’

Since the conflict between Israel and Iran began on Friday, there has been no indication from Jerusalem that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to include the UK in any coalition against Iran.

Relations between the UK and Israel have soured in recent months after Britain joined the likes of France, Canada and Australia in condemning the country’s continuing siege of Gaza.

While Israel informed the United States ahead of its strikes on Iran on Friday, and countries such as Germany, the UK did not receive prior warning.

Any sustained RAF campaign in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean could have a knock-on effect on the itinerary of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group, including the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales.

Rescue workers, police and military inspect the site where an Iranian missile struck in Bnei Brak, near Tel Aviv, on Monday

Firefighters and other emergency personnel by the site of an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv  

The CSG requires support from RAF Voyager refuelling aircraft. These are essential for extending the range of the F-35B fighter jets operating from the carrier.

Should the Voyagers be required to support RAF missions in support of Israel, or to protect UK assets in the region, this would compromise the CSG, which in recent days has been exercising with the Indian Navy as part of Operation Highmast.

Iran has fired more than 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel since Friday. Many have penetrated the country’s renowned Iron Dome defensive shield. This has led to at least 13 civilian deaths.

So, Israel may be required to call on allies to protect its citizens. According to military sources, the United States is likely to plug these gaps.

Last night, the Ministry of Defence declined to comment on developments involving UK Forces. 

There are also concerns Iran could respond to the conflict by dialing up attempts to launch terrorist attacks on UK soil. 

Lord Hogan-Howe, the former Metropolitan Police commissioner, has insisted a ‘strict eye’ needs to be kept on the Iranian threat to the UK following a string of recent incidents. 

The attacks on Israel (including this one pictured yesterday) are in retaliation for strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme 

Professor Bronk, an air power specialist, described Iranian threats against the UK, America and France as an attempt to dissuade military support for Israel

‘I think there’s certainly evidence that this country [already] has been targeted,’ he told Times Radio. 

‘I think the question now is, are there going to be state-backed plans to attack this country rather than just people in this country? So I think … all the security services and the police are going to have to be aware of that.

‘If there’s not a negotiated end [to the conflict] and this runs on for years, as we’ve already had problems in the Middle East, you’re going to have to keep a very strict eye on what the Iranian state might be thinking about in the UK.’

MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum revealed in October that 20 Iran-linked plots had been disrupted since January 2022. 

They consisted attempts to assassinate or kidnap dissidents and journalists, with a focus on Iranian nationals rather than the general public.

But Mr McCallum warned that Iran could ‘repurpose’ its criminal network to attack Britons if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.

Last month, counterterrorism police arrested five Iranians who had allegedly been plotting to attack the Israeli embassy. They were later released.  

Meanwhile, Britain’s Jewish community has been urged to be on heightened alert amid fears of terrorist ‘revenge’ attacks.

Any sustained RAF campaign in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean could have a knock-on effect on the itinerary of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group, including the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales (pictured)

The Community Security Trust (CST), a charity set up to protect British Jews, said it was stepping up efforts at synagogues, schools and community buildings.

A spokesman said: ‘Our security measures have been at a very high level since the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, with the deep threat from Iran being central to our planning and our operations. We will intensify our efforts, including our partnerships with the police, government and across Britain’s Jewish community.’

CST said it has no ‘specific intelligence’ of an extremist attack being planned.

But it ‘strongly requests that our community be vigilant and follows the strict security measures that are in place at communal buildings, events and areas’ because ‘Iran has long used terrorism against Jews and Israelis around the world’.

It said the ‘overall level of risk has been unusually high’ since the October 7, 2023, outrage in southern Israel, when Hamas killed 1,195 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 hostages.

Israel’s national security council said it was likely that ‘terrorist elements’ would ‘seek to carry out acts of revenge against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, including civilians’.

***
Read more at DailyMail.co.uk