This month, humanity will learn just how close we are to annihilation.
Every January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) sets a new time for the Doomsday Clock – the symbolic scale for humanity’s proximity to the apocalypse.
Last year, scientists left the clock sitting at 90 seconds to midnight – the closest humanity had come to destruction since the creation of the atomic bomb.
But with war still raging in Ukraine and chaos across the Middle East, experts say that the risk of nuclear war is now ‘far too high’.
Dr Haydn Belfield, research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, told MailOnline: ‘We are probably closer to nuclear war than at any point in the last forty years.’
However, scientists say it isn’t just nuclear weapons that could lead to the destruction of humanity.
The BAS also warns that a rapidly warming climate, the rise of powerful AIs, and the spread of sophisticated genetic engineering technologies could all trigger catastrophes.
And looking back on a year marked by extreme temperatures and climate disasters, it seems likely that doomsday is closer than ever before.
With the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists prepared to unveil the new time of the Doomsday Clock this month, experts warn that the risk of nuclear war is now ‘far too high’. Pictured: the Doomsday Clock is revealed at 90 seconds to midnight in 2024
What is the Doomsday Clock?
The Doomsday Clock is a metaphorical scale used to show how close the world is to a human-made catastrophe.
It was first created by the BAS in 1947 as the front cover for the group’s monthly magazine, but has since become a key measure of humanity’s existential risk.
When it was first created, the hands were set at seven minutes to midnight because the creator Martyl Langsdorf thought it ‘looked good to my eye’.
From then on, the hands of the clock have been updated each January to reflect the changing level of risk.
At first, the Doomsday Clock was designed to show how close the world was to destruction via nuclear war.
However, the definition of doomsday has since been broadened to include any human-made disaster such as climate change, AI, or an escaped bioweapon.
If the clock gets closer towards midnight, this suggests that humanity has crept closer towards a doomsday scenario.
The Doomsday Clock was unveiled in 1947 and has since become a measure of humanity’s proximity to a human-caused apocalypse. Each year, a panel of scientists update the clock to reflect how close the world is to disaster, represented by midnight. Pictured: Dr Leonard Rieser, Chairman of the Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hand of the Doomsday Clock back to 17 minutes before midnight in 1991
If the clock is moved further back, on the other hand, this shows that humanity has succeeded in reducing the risk of annihilation in the last 12 months.
In some cases, as in 2024, the hands are not moved at all to show that the level of risk has remained the same.
Whether the time should be moved is decided by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, which meets twice per year.
This group is made up of experts on nuclear technology and has included 13 Nobel Laureates over the years.
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?
Although the BAS has yet to reveal its verdict for this year, the situation around the world suggests that the hands could move closer to midnight.
In 2024, Rachel Bronson, then president and CEO of the BAS, said during a press event that the decision to keep the clock at 90 seconds to midnight had been made due to four key reasons.
Ms Bronson said: ‘The countries with nuclear weapons are engaged in modernization programs that threaten to create a new nuclear arms race.
Last year, scientists kept the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight. This is the closest it has ever been since the creation of the atomic bomb
The Doomsday Clock is now at its closest point to midnight, but experts say the increasing risk of nuclear war could mean it is moved closer this year
‘Earth experienced its hottest year on record and massive floods, fires and other climate related disasters have taken root and lack of action on climate change threatens billions of lives and livelihoods.
‘Biological research aimed at preventing future pandemics has proven useful, but also presents the risk of causing one. And recent advances in artificial intelligence raise a variety of questions about how to control a technology that could improve or threaten civilization in countless ways.’
What makes this year so worrying is that each of these four categories have seen no improvement or worsened in the last year – especially the risk of nuclear war.
Dr Belfield says: ‘The war in Ukraine has become a stalemate, that Putin might seek to break with nuclear escalation and brinksmanship.
‘Tensions between the West and China – especially over Taiwan – continue to increase. And the United States has a new President who has little interest in nuclear arms control.’
The war in Ukraine is not only still raging on, but has taken some important developments that make a nuclear conflict more likely.
Russia has now brought in troops from North Korea, a rogue state with nuclear ambitions, and has changed its ‘nuclear doctrine’ – the rules that govern when a nuclear strike is allowed.
Under the new doctrine, Russia states that it could launch a nuclear attack in response to an attack on its territory by a non-nuclear power that is backed by a nuclear one.
With the war in Ukraine at a stalemate, experts caution that Russia could increase the risk of a nuclear attack as a means of achieving victory. Pictured: Residents stand outside their destroyed homes in Chernihiv, Ukraine following a Russian missile strike
The UK has now granted Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles (pictured) to strike inside Russian territory. Russia has now changed its nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear strikes on a non-nuclear country such as Ukraine, that is supported by a nuclear power like the UK
This is precisely the scenario of Ukraine, a non-nuclear power, attacking Russia with the backing of the US, which has the world’s second-largest stockpile of nuclear arms.
At the same time, the United States, the UK, and France authorised Ukraine to use their long-range missile systems to attack targets within Russia.
Dr Belfield says: ‘Putin is perhaps even more unhinged than the late Soviet gerontocrats, and has repeatedly threatened nuclear use.
‘While the number of warheads has reduced dramatically since the 1980s, the latest climate modelling indicates there are still more than enough to collapse civilisation.’
Likewise, the BAS’ 2024 report noted that the war between Israel and Hamas has the potential to spiral into a wider conflict – a prediction which could become true.
In a recent article, François Diaz-Maurin, associate editor for nuclear affairs at the BAS called 2024 ‘the antechamber of the next nuclear crisis’.
Last year Iran launched large barrages of ballistic missiles against Israel on two occasions.
Mr Diaz-Maurin says: ‘The faceoff prompted fears that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear sites in retaliation—a move that could have ripple effects on nuclear proliferation in the region.’
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warned last year that the war between Israel and Hamas could spiral into a wider conflict in the region. Pictured: Homes in Gaza City reduced to rubble by an Israeli attack
Experts now warn that the risk of nuclear war is higher than it has been in the last 40 years. This could mean that the Doomsday Clock is moved closer to midnight
The growing instability among the holders of nuclear weapons increases the risk that the world’s conflicts could escalate into a nuclear exchange.
Likewise, experts have warned that the climate crisis only worsen in 2024.
Last year, it was confirmed that 2024 was set to become the hottest year on record with average surface temperatures rising 1.55ºC (2.79ºF) above the pre-industrial average.
With temperatures rising, the number of extreme weather events has increased in number and severity.
Most notably in October flash floods in Valencia, Spain triggered one of the country’s worst-ever natural disasters.
Scientists say that this catastrophic event was fuelled by climate change which makes violent downpours more likely.
Additionally, 2024 saw a number of dire warnings that the ongoing climate crisis could trigger catastrophic events.
In December, the UN warned that the world faces an ‘existential crisis’ as rapidly expanding drylands threaten the viability of farming around the world.
A UN report shows that more than 75 per cent of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier over the last three decades (marked in various shadings on this map). The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warn that the warming climate increases the risk of a doomsday scenario
In their report, the UN warned that billions could starve in mass famines by 2040 if nothing is done to change the climate’s course.
Likewise, in October, 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists warned that climate change could trigger the collapse of ocean currents, plunging the world into a new ice age.
The scientists warned that the melting ice caps could release enough fresh water to destabilise the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) – the current which powers the Gulf Stream.
Were AMOC to collapse it would lead to plunging temperatures over Europe and rising sea levels elsewhere in the world.
Finally, significant advances in AI have now made it easier than ever to engineer new pathogens that could be released into the wild.
Studies found that even generalised chatbots like ChatGPT could be ‘mildly’ useful in making bioweapons.
Meanwhile, advanced software like Google DeepMinds’s AlphaFold 3 pushes these capabilities to new extremes.
AI has also increased the risk of conflict rapidly escalating into a nuclear exchange as machine learning becomes integrated into military systems.
The integration of AI into military and even nuclear systems, just like Skynet in The Terminator (pictured), means the risk of conflicts turning nuclear is increased
‘Perhaps most importantly, nuclear weapon states are exploring incorporating artificial intelligence into early warning systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance,’ says Dr Belfield.
‘Incorporating AI raises major concerns, for example of “automation bias” – mistakenly putting too much trust in faulty AI systems.’
Based on these changes it seems likely that the BAS may make the decision to move the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight.
Bookkeepers currently give the odds of moving closer to doomsday odds of four to six.
Nigel Skinner, current affairs expert at OLBG.com, says: ‘The latest betting odds now say there’s a 60% chance that the Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight in 2025 with experts set to announce the latest update in January.’
However, with no indication from the BAS itself, we will have to wait until later this month to find out whether humanity is doomed.
What is the Doomsday clock and what does it mean?
What is the Doomsday Clock?
The Doomsday Clock was created by the Bulletin, an independent non-profit organization run by some of the world’s most eminent scientists.
It was founded by concerned US scientists involved in the Manhattan Project, which developed the world’s first nuclear weapons during World War II.
In 1947, they established the clock to provide a simple way of demonstrating the danger to the Earth and humanity posed by nuclear war.
The Doomsday Clock not only takes into account the likelihood of nuclear Armageddon but also other emerging threats such as climate change and advances in biotechnology and artificial intelligence.
The Doomsday Clock was created by the Bulletin, an independent non-profit organization run by some of the world’s most eminent scientists
It is symbolic and represents a countdown to possible global catastrophe.
The decision to move, or leave the clock alone, is made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in consultation with the bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which includes 16 Nobel laureates.
The clock has become a universally recognised indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and emerging technologies in life sciences.
In 2020, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an expert group formed in 1945, adjusted the Doomsday Clock 100 seconds to midnight, the closest we’ve ever come to total destruction – and it remained there in 2021.
That sent a message that the Earth was closer to oblivion than any time since the early days of hydrogen bomb testing and 1984, when US-Soviet relations reached ‘their iciest point in decades.’
The Bulletin also considered world leaders response to the coronavirus pandemic, feeling it was so poor that the clock needed to remain in its perilously close to midnight position.
The closer to midnight the clock moves the closer to annihilation humanity is.
How has the clock changed since 1947?
- 1947 – 48: 7 minutes
- 1949 – 52: 3 minutes
- 1953 – 59: 2 minutes
- 1960 – 62: 7 minutes
- 1963 – 67: 12 minutes
- 1968: 7 minutes
- 1969 – 71: 10 minutes
- 1972 – 73: 12 minutes
- 1974 – 79: 9 minutes
- 1980: 7 minutes
- 1981 – 83: 4 minutes
- 1984 – 87: 3 minutes
- 1988 – 89: 6 minutes
- 1990: 10 minutes
- 1991 – 94: 17 minutes
- 1995 – 97: 14 minutes
- 1998 – 2001: 9 minutes
- 2002 – 06: 7 minutes
- 2007 – 09: 5 minutes
- 2010 – 11: 6 minutes
- 2012 – 14: 5 minutes
- 2015 – 16: 3 minutes
- 2017 – 2.5 minutes
- 2018 – 2 minutes
- 2019 – 2 minutes
- 2020 – 100 seconds
- 2021 – 100 seconds
- 2022 – 100 seconds
- 2023 – 90 seconds
- 2024 – 90 seconds
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Read more at DailyMail.co.uk