A new presidential poll has shocked the nation in the closing days of the 2024 election.
Ann Selzer, a well-respected political pollster, released a survey on Saturday finding Vice President Kamala Harris had suddenly surged to a three percentage point-lead in Iowa.
The surprising outlier survey made headlines across the country as the VP has been widely expected to lose the Hawkeye State – by a lot.
Iowa has been solidly red for years. The state backed Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 by almost ten percentage points. And Selzer’s September poll showed Trump beating Harris by four points. Her survey in June (when President Biden was still in the race) had Trump leading by 18 points.
A 21-point swing toward Harris, in a decidedly Republican state, would certainly be cause for concern for the Trump campaign – especially since the findings highlighted a glaring vulnerability for the former president – his support among women.
According to the Selzer poll, Harris leads Trump among women 56 to 36 percent. That rises to an astounding 63 to 28 percent among women over 65 years old.
These findings were seen as evidence of a ‘hidden Harris’ voter in the 2024 electorate that have so far flown under the radar – and are now poised to upend the race, because the sentiments of Iowans are often shared by others in the region.
Ann Selzer (above, right on MSNBC on November 3, 2024), a well-respected political pollster, released a survey on Saturday finding Vice President Kamala Harris had suddenly surged to a three percentage point-lead in Iowa .
The surprising outlier survey made headlines across the country as the VP has been widely expected to lose the Hawkeye State – by a lot.
If this ‘hidden Harris’ voter exists in other Midwestern states (like Michigan, Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania) then Trump would have a big problem on his hands.
Though, that’s a big if.
For one, everyone must be wary of reading too much into any single poll. While Ann Selzer has a strong track record of accuracy, no public opinion survey is infallible.
Additionally, there is significant contrasting evidence to consider, including DailyMail.com’s own findings.
In the days running up to the Selzer poll drop, the J.L. Partners/DailyMail national poll for October showed a 3-point Trump advantage. In September, Harris held a one-point lead.
Trump’s swelling support appeared to come from voters abandoning independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr and undecided voters finally making their choice. (Only one in fifty voters now say they have not yet made up their minds.)
Though, the Mail did detect another trend that may suggest Selzer is on to something.
When we asked women how they felt about Trump, the plurality called him ‘corrupt,’ while Harris was seen as ‘strong’.
More specifically, the Mail’s poll of undecided voters in Pennsylvania in October found one of their biggest hesitations in voting for Trump was ‘what it would mean for women’s rights.’
With Republicans, like former Congresswomen Liz Cheney and Barbara Comstock, backing Harris – and with voters remaining stubbornly loyal to ex-GOP candidate Nikki Haley long after she dropped out of the primary race – it is plausible that right-leaning women could go to the vice president.
According to the Selzer poll, Harris leads Trump among women 56 to 36 percent. That rises to an astounding 63 to 28 percent among women over 65 years old. (Above) Woman voters in Orlando, Florida on October 17, 2024
And, indeed, since December 2023, Harris’s advantage among women in the Mail’s poll has grown steadily, from one percentage point late last year, to six-points in August 2024, to 14-points in late October.
That is a significant gender gap – but it is balanced by Trump +22 lead among men. And, ultimately, that is why I don’t see clear evidence that Harris can win solely on the backs of women.
Of course, the Mail’s poll was among voters nationally. Could it be that Selzer’s ‘hidden Harris’ voter effect is only occurring in the Midwest?
Again, there is reason to be skeptical.
On the same day that the Selzer poll was released, another Iowa survey was published by an equally reliable operation, Emerson College Polling.
This survey of 800 likely Iowa voters found 53 percent supported Trump and 43 percent backed Harris – and that the former president carried a majority among both genders.
‘Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51 percent to 46 percent, and men by a significant 17-point margin, 56 percent to 39 percent,’ Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Selzer’s finding and the Emerson’s results cannot both be accurate.
Perhaps an explanation for the discrepancy is found in how Selzer conducted her survey.
Typically, after pollsters collect their results they ‘weight’ the numbers to ensure their findings are representative of the overall electorate.
For instance, if only five percent of the poll respondents were young voters a pollster may inflate their influence to more accurately reflect the real percentage of young voters in the voting population.
Selzer ‘weights’ for age, gender and voting district, but not for party registration. That’s not totally unusual – and it has delivered accurate results in the past. But in a state which has seen a surge in Republican registration in recent years, like Iowa, questions must be raised about the poll’s results.
Selzer hasn’t publish data on the party registrations of the respondents, so it’s impossible to know how much that factor may or may not have biased the sample.
Finally, there is one last reason to query Selzer’s poll as hard evidence of a ‘hidden’ female Harris voter – and that’s the fact that Iowa (which is 85 percent white) is demographically different from Pennsylvania (75 percent white) and Michigan (74 percent white).
Harris’s challenge in winning across the Midwest is complicated by what has happened with non-white voters since 2020. A growing percentage of them have moved away from the liberal party.
In a focus group that I conducted in Detroit last week, I was stunned by the number of black and Asian voters who told me they were backing Trump. Though Harris still leads decisively among these groups, Trump has made historic inroads with black, Asian and Hispanic voters.
Taking all these factors together, I believe that Donald Trump goes into Tuesday with a marginal advantage over Kamala Harris.
But anyone who claims to know who is going to win this race is lying to you.
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Read more at DailyMail.co.uk