Israel’s ceasefire deal with Hezbollah may be ‘fragile’, but presents an opportunity for peace after years of failed UN missions, diplomats assured in the wake the historic agreement last night.
The warring parties came to rare agreement late on Tuesday after months of bitter fighting in Lebanon that will provide an initial 60 day window to withdraw towards more enduring peace.
Critics have warned that the situation remains delicate and say that opportunistic groups may now be looking to ‘loosen Hezbollah’s, and Iran’s, grip on Lebanon’ as the group concedes ‘total Israeli victory’.
Mark Wallace, former US ambassador to the UN and CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran, told MailOnline that while the deal ‘definitely’ marks a ‘blow’ to Hamas and Iran, Tehran will see this as ‘at least salvaging Hezbollah to live to fight another day’.
Still, the agreement suggests that the signatories have worked through some of the fatal flaws of the last peace agreement and remain hopeful that they can ensure terms are met, with assurances from the US and Lebanese Armed Forces.
Israel ‘will not leave anything to the UN in future’ and will be ‘quick to call out’ any resupply of Hezbollah as all parties look to learn from the shortcomings of the last Resolution on peace, said Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former UK ambassador to Yemen.
Smoke billows from buildings after the Israeli army launched an airstrikes on the Dahieh district in Beirut in Lebanon ,on Tuesday on November 26
Smoke and flames rise following an Israeli airstrike that targeted a branch of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan finance group in the southern city of Sidon, Lebanon, 26 November
People flee their homes and spend the night on the streets in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, due to the threat of possible airstrikes by the Israeli army, on November 26
Joe Biden speaks about a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, in the Rose Garden of the White House on November 26
Israel’s ceasefire decision with Hezbollah came after Israel’s security cabinet voted 10-1 in favour of a deal aimed at a 60-day truce that could form the basis of a lasting peace deal.
In this time, Israeli forces will be expected to withdraw from Lebanon and Hezbollah will end its armed presence along the southern border, south of the Litani River.
The withdrawals will be accompanied by an influx of thousands more Lebanese army troops, who have been largely sidelined in the war, to patrol the border area along with an existing U.N. peacekeeping force.
The deal looks a lot like Israel’s deal with Hezbollah to end the 2006 Lebanon War, dubbed UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
That, likewise, held that all Israeli forces would withdraw to be replaced by Lebanese and UNIFIL peacekeepers.
All armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah, were also supposed to disarms – with only UNIFIL and the Lebanese military allowed to station armed forces south of the river.
Israel had long criticised UNIFIL’s ability to manage the situation as Hezbollah grew in presence and continued to launch attacks into Israel.
This came to a head in October, when Israel launched its ground-invasion of Lebanon to oust Hezbollah – citing failure to uphold the terms of the agreement.
‘The UN missions there have been a failure and we should admit that,’ said former ambassador to the UN, Mark Wallace.
After the deal was announced, Reuters cited an unnamed senior US official in saying the US would coordinate with the Lebanese Army to deter potential violations under the new agreement.
But Mr Wallace was hesitant.
‘That’s nonsense that the USA will work with the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces],’ he told MailOnline.
‘We have supported the LAF for many years and have nothing to show for it… Nonsense.’
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati did stress that his government would commit to strengthening ‘the army’s presence in the south’ to implement UN Resolution 1701, and work with the UN peacekeeping forces in his country.
But Lebanon was already reeling from rising poverty and a wider economic crisis before the war displaced thousands and damaged vital infrastructure.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem on September 2
Ivana Skakye, 2, a Lebanese child who is suffering from third-degree burns following an Israeli strike, receives treatment in Beirut on October 29
An Israeli tank maneuvers in northern Israel near the Israel-Lebanon border, Monday, Sept. 30
People displaced by announcements of Israeli airstrikes rest on Martyrs Square in Beirut, Lebanon on November 26
Syrians carry their luggage as they cross on foot into Syria through a crater caused by an Israeli airstrike to cut the road between the Lebanese and the Syrian checkpoints, at the Masnaa crossing, in the eastern Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024
Israel will be hesitant to entrust anything to the UN and will likely be watching very carefully – having stressed on Tuesday that it reserves the right to intervene if it does see any evidence of Hezbollah rearmament on its border.
‘The deal may be fragile,’ said Edmund Fitton-Brown. ‘It places a lot of responsibility on the Lebanese authorities and LAF.
‘They have not been able to impose their will on Hezbollah in the past. Both sides of the deal ”recognize the importance of UNSCR 1701” – a less than ringing endorsement of UNIFIL’s performance over the past 18 years.’
Going forward, Israel ‘will not leave anything to the UN’ and ‘nor will the incoming US Administration ask them to,’ he added.
‘Israel will use its 60 day withdrawal period to make certain Hezbollah has withdrawn completely north of the Litani River.
‘It’s interesting that the US appears to have a role in achieving an internationally recognized delineation of the land border.’
The decision is likely to have ripples through the region, felt especially in Lebanon and within the ranks of Hamas.
‘I imagine Iran, Hamas, the Houthis and the Iraqi Shia militias will be disappointed by Hezbollah’s unilateral approach to this ceasefire,’ Mr Fitton-Brown said.
‘Hezbollah initiated the intensification of hostilities 13 months ago, linking their campaign with the Palestinian cause.
‘Now they have agreed to stop with their Hamas allies still being pummeled.
‘Netanyahu has rubbed this in by saying a calming on the northern front will free up resource and bandwidth for intensified action against Hamas and Iran.’
In Lebanon, he said the other parties will now ‘also be watching carefully to see whether they can loosen Hezbollah’s, and Iran’s, grip on Lebanon.’
‘Syria will now be the key arena to watch (and then Iraq),’ he assessed.
‘Both resupply of Hezbollah and attacks against Israel may come from and through Syria. Israel will be quick to call out anything of that kind. And even quicker to take kinetic action against it.’
Mr Wallace said the deal would ‘definitely’ come as a blow to Hamas and Iran – ‘but Iran I’m sure sees this as at least salvaging Hezbollah to live to fight another day’.
‘It’s time for Lebanese who have for years asked for help to rise up against Hezbollah in its weakened state and say enough of terror and enough of Iran and reclaim their country,’ he added.
‘The West should help them if any western leader had a modicum of courage.’
Alon Pinkas, an Israeli diplomat and former ambassador, told Al Jazeera the deal still looks ‘very fragile’ because it looks ‘very difficult to maintain and sustain in the long run’.
He warned that the clauses in the deal are ‘unenforceable’, and cited mounting opposition from both the centre-left and right within Israel.
US President Joe Biden nonetheless hailed the ceasefire as ‘good news’, while stressing that Israel ‘retains the right to self defence’ if Hezbollah breaks the terms of agreement.
He said it ‘heralds a new start for Lebanon’, beleaguered by months of bombardment and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.
‘Let me be clear, if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self defense, consistent with international law.’
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 26
Smoke rises after an Israeli strike in Hamra, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon, November 26
Residents of Beirut evacuate their homes late at night, fearing potential Israeli airstrikes
Israeli soldiers work on a tank, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, by Israel’s border with Lebanon in northern Israel, November 26
It is a significant change of tone, as Israel has not been allowed to enforce Resolution 1701 to push Hezbollah back from its border.
Since Hezbollah began attacks into Israel in solidarity with Hamas last October, rocket fire has displaced some 70,000 people from northern Israel, Biden said on Tuesday.
To date, the Lebanese health ministry estimates that at least 3,823 people have been killed in the country since October 2023, most of them since September.
Israel’s escalated attacks this year have dismantled much of the Hezbollah leadership – but, as Mr Wallace warns, the question remains: ‘What does it mean for Hezbollah? Will they back up and launch more missiles with larger range? Will they reconstitute?
‘Will the Lebanese people, with Hezbollah so weakened, see this as a missed opportunity to throw Hezbollah’s shackles off Lebanon?’
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