A liberal pollster’s latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.
Nate Silver’s prediction places the Republican hopeful’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.
Silver’s modelling, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, also places Trump ahead in all of the crucial swing states.
He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.
The figure is a massive upswing on the 227 he won against Biden in 2020 and even an improvement on his landslide victory of 304 against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
A liberal pollster’s latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris
Silver had been forecasting a Harris victory until August 29, the date of her CNN interview alongside her running mate Tim Walz.
From then, Trump has steadily been gaining the advantage in his predictions and is now favored to win by the widest margin in several months.
However, other pollsters are more conservative and have Harris only marginally in the lead.
RealClear’s modelling shows the Vice President winning with 273 electoral college votes against Trump’s 265 on a no-toss up map.
Project 538’s latest forecast is completely at odds with Silver’s and puts the electoral college vote at 281 for Harris, 257 Trump.
It comes as a New York Times/Siena College poll released two days ahead of their debate showdown put Trump 1 percent ahead of the vice president – 48 percent to 47 percent – within the survey’s 3-point margin of error.
Silver’s estimation for the popular vote still has Harris ahead, with her chances of securing the popular vote at 56 percent compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
But his margins are tiny, with Harris narrowly edging up on Trump with estimated 49.8 percent of the popular vote versus 49.1 percent for the Republican nominee.
‘The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll,’ Silver said.
Nate Silver’s prediction places the Republican hopeful’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris
Crucially, Silver placed Trump ahead in for electoral college votes in all swing states
‘A relatively high percentage of voters in the NYT poll said they didn’t know what Harris stood for, which means there’s room for these numbers to move.
‘But they could move in either direction as Team Trump circulates sound bites and video clips.’
The presidential hopefuls are due to face off in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
Last week, polling suggested that Harris received little to no boost following the Democratic convention and showed Trump ahead of the vice president in several crucial swing states.
A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest contests – considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada – show Trump either in the lead or even with Harris.
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