Theresa May (pictured in Downing Street yesterday) is delivering her latest keynote speech on Brexit today with negotiations at a crucial stage
Theresa May will bid to break the deadlock in Brexit talks today by setting out her vision for an ‘enduring’ settlement between the two sides.
The Prime Minister will urge the EU to strike a free trade agreement that is unprecedented in scope, while fulfilling Britain’s desire to regain control of its destiny.
But Mrs May’s long-awaited speech will also deliver a stark warning to Brussels that any effort to punish the UK will damage relations for years – and again reject demands for Northern Ireland to stay subject to EU rules.
She will lay out five tests against which the final deal will be judged, including delivering ‘real change’, ‘respecting the result of the referendum’ and giving the UK ‘control of our borders, laws and money’.
The crucial address, being held at the historic Mansion House in central London after the cold weather scotched the first choice venue in Newcastle, is the culmination of a series of interventions by ministers dubbed the ‘Road to Brexit’.
It is the third landmark speech by Mrs May on the EU, after previous set-pieces at Lancaster House and in Florence.
But it could also be the most important, as tensions with Brussels threaten to spiral out of control and even collapse negotiations altogether.
EU chief negotiator sparked a furious row this week by calling for Northern Ireland to stay in the EU customs union in order to avoid a hard Irish border.
The plan was condemned by Brexiteers as an attempt to ‘annex’ the province, while Mrs May said it was unacceptable and David Davis warned that the UK would not pay a multi-billion pound divorce bill to Brussels unless it backs down.
European council Donald Tusk also publicly berated the PM over her tough stance when he came to Downing Street yesterday, saying he was ‘not happy’ with her red lines on the customs union.
Outlining five tests against which the final deal will be judged, the Prime Minister will pledge to deliver ‘real change’ in a key speech today. She spoke with Mr Tusk yesterday
Theresa May, pictured greeting Donald Tusk on the steps of Downing Street yesterday, will warn Brussels that relations could break down for years if it tries to punish Britain over Brexit
Government sources have insisted the PM remains committed to leading the UK out of the customs union, single market and jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
But Brexiteers will be watching closely for any signs of backsliding after a week in which Remainers have ramped up the pressure for her to soften the position.
Mr Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson yesterday used a two-hour Cabinet meeting about the speech to demand the removal of a line making a ‘binding commitment’ to align with EU rules and regulations in certain sectors.
The two Brexiteers are said to have feared the commitment could shackle parts of the economy to Brussels forever – making a mockery of the referendum pledge to ‘take back control’.
One Cabinet source said the phrase had not been approved by members of the PM’s Brexit ‘war cabinet’ at their Chequers meeting last week and appeared to have been slipped in by civil servants.
However, Mrs May is expected to agree to abide by the EU’s state aid rules, which are designed to prevent governments subsidising uncompetitive industries.
Downing Street played down the row, saying the Cabinet had agreed the speech was ‘a real step forward’ ahead of the start of trade talks with Brussels later this month. Sources said Mrs May’s speech would set out an ‘ambitious but credible’ vision for a comprehensive partnership with the EU after Brexit.
Speaking at Mansion House in the City of London, she will insist the two sides have a ‘shared interest’ in getting it right. She will say: ‘I want the broadest and deepest possible agreement – covering more sectors and co-operating more fully than any free trade agreement anywhere in the world today.
‘I believe that is achievable because it is in the EU’s interests, as well as ours, and because of our unique starting point, where on day one we both have the same laws and rules. So rather than having to bring two different systems closer together, the task will be to manage the relationship.’
The PM will spell out her vision of a UK that is a ‘champion of free trade based on high standards… building a bold and comprehensive economic partnership with our neighbours in the EU, and reaching out beyond to foster trade agreements with nations across the globe’.
But she will also warn that Brexit must lead to ‘wider change’ in society so that ‘no community in Britain [will] ever be left behind again’.
Ministers says she will deliver some hard truths to extreme Brexiteers, by acknowledging that the more the UK chooses to diverge, the more trade barriers it will face.
Today’s speech was set to be delivered in Newcastle to underline Mrs May’s determination to make Brexit work for the whole country. It was moved to the capital because of the weather disrupting travel conditions.
The speech follows weeks of negotiations between senior Cabinet ministers over how far to go in sacrificing Britain’s new freedoms in order to maintain trade in key sectors linked to the European economy.
The Prime Minister will say the deal must ‘protect people’s jobs and security’, adding: ‘People in the UK voted for our country to have a new and different relationship with Europe, but while the means may change our shared goals surely have not – to work together to grow our economies and keep our people safe.’
Sources last night said the tone of the speech would be ‘emollient’, despite Mr Davis warning this week that Britain’s £40billion ‘divorce’ bill could be axed if the EU tries to cross the UK’s red lines on issues such as the Irish border.
One source said: ‘The possibility of no deal is still a live thing, but it is not what we are emphasising here.’
What are the options for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic after Brexit?
Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker agreed the outline of a divorce deal in December
Theresa May and the EU effectively fudged the Irish border issue in the Brexit divorce deal before Christmas.
But the commitments to leave the EU customs union, keep a soft border, and avoid divisions within the UK were always going to need reconciling at some stage. Currently 110million journeys take place across the border every year.
All sides in the negotiations insist they want to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, but their ideas for how the issues should be solved are very different.
If they fail to strike a deal it could mean a hard border on the island – which could potentially put the Good Friday Agreement at risk.
The agreement – struck in 1998 after years of tense negotiations and a series of failed ceasefires – brought to an end decades of the Troubles.
More than 3,500 people died in the ‘low level war’ that saw British Army checkpoints manning the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
Both London and Dublin fear reinstalling a hard border – whether by checkpoints or other means – would raise tensions and provoke a renewal of extremism or even violence if people and goods were not able to freely cross.
The DUP – which opposed the Good Friday Agreement – is determined to maintain Northern Ireland inside the UK at all costs, while also insisting it wants an open border.
The UK blueprint:
The PM has made clear her favoured outcome for Brexit is a deep free trade deal with the EU.
This would mean being aligned closely enough with the bloc that there is no need for customs checks.
Any remaining gaps in customs regulations as a would be covered with technological solutions.
That is likely to mean cameras and electronic records, which would arguably not constitute major physical infrastructure.
Boris Johnson has suggested that a slightly ‘harder’ border might be acceptable, as long as it was invisible and did not inhibit flow of people and goods.
However, Brussels has dismissed these ideas as ‘Narnia’ – insisting no-one has shown how they can work with the UK outside an EU customs union.
The EU blueprint:
The divorce deal set out a ‘fallback’ option under which the UK would maintain ‘full alignment’ with enough rules of the customs union and single market to prevent a hard border and protect the Good Friday Agreement.
The inclusion of this clause, at the demand of Ireland, almost wrecked the deal until Mrs May added a commitment that there would also be full alignment between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
But the EU has now translated this option into a legal text – and hardened it further to make clear Northern Ireland would be fully within the EU customs union.
Mrs May says no Prime Minister could ever agree to such terms, as they would undermine the constitutional integrity of the UK.
A hard border:
Neither side wants a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
But they appear to be locked in a cyclical dispute, with each adamant the other’s solutions are impossible to accept.
If there is no deal and the UK and EU reverts to basic World Trade Organisation (WTO) relationship, theoretically there would need to be physical border posts with customs checks on vehicles and goods.
That could prove catastrophic for the Good Friday Agreement, with fears terrorists would resurface and the cycle of violence escalate.
Many Brexiteers have suggested Britain could simply refuse to erect a hard border – and dare the EU to put up their own fences.
What customs arrangements do Norway, Turkey and Switzerland have with the EU?
Theresa May has insisted Brexit means quitting the EU customs union – so the UK can strike free trade deals with other countries.
But this means that customs checks on goods will probably need to be carried out at the border – creating the spectre of long border queues.
Critics of the PM’s approach say the UK should stay in a customs union with the bloc to avoid these hard border controls.
Below are three customs deals the EU has done with countries outside the bloc:
The Norway Option:
Norway voted narrowly against joining the EU in 1994, but shares a 1000-mile border with Sweden which is in the bloc.
The Norwegian government decided to negotiate a deal which gave it very close ties with the EU.
It is part of the EU single market which means it must accept EU rules on the free movement of people.
But it is not in the customs union – meaning it sets its own tariffs on customs coming from outside the EU and so must carry out border checks.
There are some 1,300 customs officials who are involved in policing the border with Sweden, and have invested substantial amounts in technology to make these as quick and smooth as possible.
They have IT systems which pre-declare goods to customs and they are developing a system which will allow lorries carrying pre-declared goods to be waved through.
Norway also pays large amounts into the EU budget and is governed by the court of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
Switzerland (border pictured) is not in the EU customs union – which means that checks on goods crossing over the border from non-EU countries are carried
The Switzerland Option:
Switzerland is one of the EU’s longest-standing trading partners, but the country voted against joining the bloc in 2001.
It is a member of the EU single market and has signed up to the Schengen area – meaning it must accept free movement rules and does not carry out passport check on other member countries.
But it is not in the EU customs union – which means that checks on goods crossing over the border from non-EU countries are carried out.
The situation tosses up some anomalies. For instance, a passenger travelling through Geneva Airport can rent a car on the French side of the border for around half of the cost of renting it on the Swiss side.
Border checks are carried out on goods but customs officials say they use intelligence to carry out spot checks, which can be carried out several miles from the border.
However, there can be long delays as goods are checked at the border.
The Turkey Option:
Turkey(its border with Bulgaria pictured) has long eyed up membership of the EU and first tried to start the lengthy application process to join in 1987.
Turkey has long eyed up membership of the EU and first tried to start the lengthy application process to join in 1987.
The country signed a customs union with the bloc in 1995 – a move Turkey’s rulers hoped would be a stepping stone on the way to full membership.
Turkey’s hopes to join the bloc faded over the past few years and have been all but abandoned under President Erdogan after he instigated a major purge of political opponents in the wake of the failed coup against him in 2016.
Under its customs union Turkey must follow EU rules on the production of goods without a say in making them.
It also means that Turkey can only strike free trade deals on goods which are negotiated by Brussels.