Military expert explains what Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan means for Australia

All bets are ‘off’ for Australia if the US gets involved in tensions between China and Taiwan and sparks the biggest war in Asia since World War II, one of our leading security experts has warned.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made a historic visit to Taiwan to mark the island’s highest level diplomatic visit in 25 years, angering China’s communist regime.

Chinese President Xi Jingping has repeatedly declared the Chinese Liberation Army will annex the democratic island of Taiwan, 180km off its coast, as part of China’s ‘national rejuvenation plan’.

The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong’s brutal communist regime.

Australia cut its diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1972, recognising the People’s Republic under the ‘One China’ policy. But western democracies have continued to support the island’s struggle against China’s dictatorial lurch.

Lowry Institute’s International Security Program director Sam Roggeveen has  warned Australia will need to ask some hard questions about its relationship with the US if Washington intervenes in China-Taiwan relations.

As The Project co-host Carrie Bickmore questioned China’s ‘empty threats, he stressed Beijing has always been serious about Taiwan as he outlined the potential ramifications Ms Pelosi’s visit could have for Australia.

‘If the Americans do get involved then all bets are off,’ Mr Roggeveen told the program,

‘We are talking about certainly the largest war that we’ve in in Asia since Vietnam and potentially the biggest war we have seen in in the world since World War II that could involve the use of nuclear weapons.’

It comes as Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and foreign minister Penny Wong distanced themselves from Ms Pelosi’s landmark visit.

‘The level of US engagement with our Taiwanese counterparts is a matter for them,’ Mr Albanese told reporters.

Ms Wong told ABC Radio: ‘My view is we should continue to be asserting that all parties should de-escalate tensions, and we should continue with others in the region to urge the maintenance of peace and stability in the region and, in particular, across the Taiwan Strait.’

The Project Carrie Bickmore questioned whether China’s response just another empty threat

But while Mr Roggeveen believes Australia’s core security interests would not threatened by an Chinese invasion of Taiwan, we need to take a long hard look at our relationship with the US.

‘If the United States is determined to back Taiwan, then it seems obvious that the Americans will ask us to help,’ he continued.

‘I think we really need to think twice about whether the relationship with the United States as important and as useful as it has been for many decades is to important that we want to take that risk. 

‘That’s an incredibly sobering moment and Australian decision makers would be negligent if they didn’t think through the full implications of that.’

During a press conference, Ms Pelosi accused China of ‘standing in the way’ of Taiwan’s participation in international affairs and cautioned that America’s commitment to preserving democracy ‘remains ironclad’ 

She also met with Taiwan’s female president Tsai Ing-wen – telling her that the controversial visit shows the US ‘will not abandon its commitment’ to the island.

Lowry Institute’s International Security Program director Sam Roggeveen warned Australia may need to take a hard look at its relationship with the US

Mr Roggeveen branded US First Speaker’s visit to Taiwan as a empty gesture and ‘not a great idea’.

‘The best gloss you could put on that is at least Nancy Pelosi herself and the United States have shown it won’t back down in the face of Chinese demands that it do so,’  Mr Roggeveen said.

‘It has shown resolve to that extent, but on the other hand it feels like an empty gesture to me. It is a showcase for Nancy Pelosi and the media.’

One of Australia’s leading security experts has warned China has always been serious about Taiwan (pictured Chinese military officers in Beijing)