Boris Johnson is the overwhelming favourite to be chosen as the next Tory leader – despite the fact that people believe Jeremy Hunt would make the best PM.
Exclusive research given to The Mail on Sunday has found that, when Tory voters are asked who is best suited to running the country, Mr Johnson wins by 47 per cent to 29 per cent.
However, when all voters are asked who would be the best occupant of Downing Street, Mr Hunt beats Mr Johnson by a margin of 34 per cent to 27 per cent.
The trend of recent polls has shown that even with Mr Johnson as leader, the party would struggle to command a convincing lead, with the Tories, Labour, Brexit Party and Lib Dems all close to level pegging
But only eight per cent think that the Tory Party will choose Mr Hunt, compared with 67 per cent who believe that Mr Johnson will emerge triumphant.
The analysis, conducted by former Conservative Party Deputy Chairman Lord Ashcroft, highlights a growing gulf between Mr Johnson’s continuing popularity within the party and his declining fortunes among the electorate at large.
Mr Hunt also performs better in a head to head with Jeremy Corbyn. When voters are asked who will make the best PM, Mr Hunt leads Mr Corbyn by a margin of 47 per cent to 19 per cent. In contrast, Mr Johnson beats the Labour leader by 42 to 24.
When all voters are asked who would be the best occupant of Downing Street, Mr Hunt beats Mr Johnson by a margin of 34 per cent to 27 per cent. But only eight per cent think that the Tory Party will choose Mr Hunt, compared with 67 per cent who believe that Mr Johnson will emerge triumphant
Mr Hunt retains his advantage when all voters are asked whether they would prefer a Hunt-led Tory Government or a Corbyn-led Labour Government, by a margin of 60-40. With Mr Johnson at the helm, the lead is just 54 to 46.
The poll results come as voting cards begin arriving at the homes of the 160,000 party members who will determine the contest.
The findings will worry Tory MPs who are concerned that Mr Johnson’s expected victory will cause a ‘legitimacy’ problem for the party.
The next Prime Minister is being chosen by just 0.34 per cent of the 48 million people who are registered to vote – a micro-electorate which is 97 per cent white and with an average age of 57.
For the Conservatives to win a majority at the next General Election, the party will have to win over younger voters who have been lost to Mr Corbyn: the average age at which people first vote Conservative is now 51.
Exclusive research given to The Mail on Sunday has found that, when Tory voters are asked who is best suited to running the country, Mr Johnson wins by 47 per cent to 29 per cent
Lord Ashcroft’s focus groups confirm the impression of a legitimacy problem, with people saying that the party looks ‘disconnected’ and like ‘a bunch of public schoolboys who just want power bickering among each other’.
One way to solve the legitimacy issue would be for Mr Johnson to hold a General Election to give him a personal mandate.
But the trend of recent polls has shown that even with Mr Johnson as leader, the party would struggle to command a convincing lead, with the Tories, Labour, Brexit Party and Lib Dems all close to level pegging.
The focus groups also provide worrying findings for Mr Johnson, with the top five words chosen to describe him being ‘arrogant’, ‘dishonest’, ‘dangerous’, ‘unreliable’ and ‘amusing’.
Mr Hunt won when people were asked who they would prefer to babysit their children or lend money to and expect to see the cash returned.
Only nine per cent of people would trust Mr Johnson with an important secret, compared with 32 per cent for Mr Hunt.
Last week, Government sources claimed that Mr Johnson had been denied access to sensitive intelligence when he was Foreign Secretary because he was not trusted by Downing Street.
However, Mr Johnson wins by a margin of 38 to 19 when people are asked who they would prefer to invite over for dinner.
- 8,223 adults were interviewed online between June 24 and 28, 2019. Data was weighted to be representative of all adults. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com
Voters would love Boris round for dinner – but even his biggest fans would pick Hunt to babysit their children: LORD ASHCROFT on the differences between Tory leadership candidates
Boris Johnson generates enthusiasm of a kind I don’t recall seeing for any other Conservative politician. On the other hand, he drives his many opponents nuts.
Antipathy for Jeremy Hunt is largely confined to those who don’t forgive him for his firm stance during the 2016 junior doctors’ strike – but Conservatives tend to like and respect him, rather than queue eagerly round the block to catch a glimpse, as they do for his leadership rival.
So if neither candidate has what we might call the Hillary Clinton problem – opponents who would walk over hot coals to stop her but no matching passion on her own side – nor does either hit the sweet spot of inspiring Tory fervour without galvanising the opposition.
On the face of it, the two potential Prime Ministers offer very different things.
The public think Hunt and Johnson (above) are equally unlikely to achieve a good Brexit deal, represent the whole country, be honest, unite Remainers and Leavers, or care about ‘people like me’
My latest polling shows voters as a whole think Hunt would be more likely to be a credible and effective leader for Britain on the world stage, to build and lead an effective team in government, to take a reasonable and sensible approach to problems, to communicate effectively, and to win the respect of people who don’t vote for him.
The analysis, conducted by former Conservative Party Deputy Chairman Lord Ashcroft, highlights a growing gulf between Mr Johnson’s continuing popularity within the party and his declining fortunes among the electorate at large
Johnson, meanwhile, is thought more likely to be a strong leader, take Britain out of the EU with No Deal, win a General Election for the Conservatives – and to make promises he knows he can’t or won’t deliver.
When we asked people to pick words and phrases to describe each candidate, the top five choices for Hunt were ‘smug’, ‘out of his depth’, ‘competent’, ‘out of touch’ and ‘arrogant’.
Johnson was described as ‘arrogant’, ‘dishonest’, ‘dangerous’, ‘unreliable’ and ‘amusing’.
Most said they would rather have Boris round for dinner – but even Tory Leave voters, Johnson’s core constituency, would rather trust Hunt to babysit their children, keep an important secret, lend him money in the expectation of getting it back, and drive their daughter home from a party.
As someone in our focus groups summed it up: ‘Jeremy Hunt is your ready-made, off-the-shelf Prime Minister, whereas Boris is interesting, isn’t he? Whatever else he is, something is going to happen.’
The divide is not so much over policy as tactics: is this a time for seriousness and calm heads, or a time to spin the wheel?
‘It’s the unknown, isn’t it?’ as someone else put it. ‘Boris could be the best or worst PM we’ve ever had.’
Which of these characters, then, would people rather have as Prime Minister – competent but conventional and a bit smug, or strong and amusing but unreliable and potentially dangerous?
Johnson is pictured campaigning in Barry, Wales yesterday. For 2017 Conservatives and those who voted Leave in the referendum, it’s Boris at a canter. But for voters as a whole, Jeremy Hunt comes out on top
For 2017 Conservatives and those who voted Leave in the referendum, it’s Boris at a canter. But for voters as a whole, Jeremy Hunt comes out on top.
Head to head against Jeremy Corbyn, Boris wins by 18 points – but Jeremy Hunt beats Corbyn by a 28-point margin.
Forced to choose, Britain would prefer a Hunt-led Tory government to a Corbyn-led Labour one by 60 per cent to 40 per cent, but a Boris-led administration to its Corbynite alternative by just eight points.
Remain voters account for the difference. Seeing Boris as not just willing, but eager, to leave the EU without a deal, they would rather have the safer-seeming Hunt than Corbyn in Downing Street, but prefer Corbyn to Johnson by a wide margin.
In electoral terms, this means that for the Tories the contest could be said to come down to ‘reach’ versus ‘grasp’.
Boris comfortably commands the support of Leave-voting Conservatives, and has the stronger appeal to both Labour Leavers and those tempted by the Brexit Party.
An Election under PM Boris would be a re-run of 2017, in the hope that a stronger campaign and a more charismatic leader would yield a better result.
Those who have drifted to Labour or the Lib Dems, however, are at least more open to voting for a Conservative Party led by Jeremy Hunt – though whether they would do so in practice is another question.
In the public’s mind, Boris is no longer the metropolitan liberal capable of winning two terms as London Mayor – but would Remain Tories really vote to topple him and allow Corbyn into government if he were PM?
And while Hunt is seen as softer on Brexit, would Tory Leavers really abandon him and risk both a Labour government and, with the way the Opposition’s policy is inexorably shifting, the chance of losing Brexit altogether?
Forced to choose, Britain would prefer a Hunt-led Tory government to a Corbyn-led Labour one by 60 per cent to 40 per cent, but a Boris-led administration to its Corbynite alternative by just eight points
Not surprisingly, people think this leadership election matters – that the two would be very different Prime Ministers and that the outcome will determine what happens in the coming years.
But strikingly, Conservatives are more likely to think this than anyone else. In other words, the closer you get, the more different they look. But from a distance, they both look like Tories.
In our research, people told us the party looked ‘weak’, ‘confused’, ‘disconnected’, and like ‘a bunch of public schoolboys who just want power bickering among each other’ – and that is all from 2017 Conservative voters.
The public think Hunt and Johnson are equally unlikely to achieve a good Brexit deal, represent the whole country, be honest, unite Remainers and Leavers, or care about ‘people like me’.
The Brexit debacle may be a major cause of the Tories’ troubles, but solving it won’t put them to rest.
- Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author, pollster and former deputy chairman of the Tory Party. Full details of his research can be found at LordAshcroftPolls.com