A Coalition minority government is becoming a distinct possibility as a new poll reveals Labor’s support continues to nose dive.
Just as significantly, when voters are asked to compare the major parties’ positions on the major issues, the Opposition comes out ahead.
The latest Freshwater poll has Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party primary vote down at just 30 per cent compared to 42 per cent primary support for the Coalition.
On a two party preferred basis that leaves Labor trailing the Coalition 48 to 52 per cent.
Such an outcome on election day would likely see the Coalition winning more seats than Labor, but falling just short of a majority of its own.
From the Prime Minister on down, the assumption in the corridors of power has long been that because of the existence of the Teals and rising support for the Greens, it is unlikely Peter Dutton would be capable of forming minority government.
Labor, despite its declining political fortunes, has therefore been seen as in the box seat to retain government, albeit requiring crossbench support.
Hello, minority government? The chances of Peter Dutton forming a government with the help of crossbenchers at the next election are increasing … with the Opposition judged more favourably on the issues
Albo has been telling close associates that he doesn’t believe he can win with a majority of Labor’s own, conceding that the government will likely need the support of the crossbench to govern for a second term.
That means the role of the Greens in a second term Labor government is all but guaranteed.
But previous certainty that only Labor could seriously consider forming minority government after the next election is now being challenged by the worsening political environment for the government.
That’s confirmed by today’s opinion poll.
If Dutton’s opposition can secure as few as 71 of the 150 seats on offer for the House of Representatives at the next election, he may be able to form a minority government of his own.
He would need the support of right-wing and centrist crossbenchers such as Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Helen Haines.
Andrew Wilkie, who as an independent Tasmanian MP backed a minority Labor government in 2010, when the parliament was last hung, would need to be appointed Speaker for the above numbers to deliver Dutton the keys to The Lodge.
That is assuming the Greens and remaining crossbenchers refused to consider a Dutton prime ministership.
For the likes of Spender and Haines to back a Coalition government they would need to also secure significant policy concessions.
That could include dumping Dutton’s nuclear energy policy and agreeing to improved transparency surrounding government rules.
Sources close to the Opposition Leader say neither of these compromises are likely to happen, meaning that a Dutton minority government might need closer to 73 or 74 seats to be a live option without the support of Spender or Haines.
Labor, which currently holds 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s notional 58 seats, could see its share of seats fall back into the 60s if the election day outcome replicated the Freshwater figures. Losing seats to both the Liberal Party and the Greens.
If the Coalition did manage to win more seats that the Labor Party it should be given the first chance to form minority government.
However, as the incumbent PM, it is possible that Governor-General Sam Mostyn would take Albanese’s advice that he could continue to govern with minority support lower than that of the Coalition while waiting for the numbers to be tested on the floor of Parliament.
Were that to happen we would be left to see how MPs voted when the first no confidence motion was moved, as well as when supply votes followed thereafter.
Labor losing on the issues
While the worsening primary and two party votes for the Labor Party will give party strategists something to think about as they ponder the timing of the next election, it is not the only figure that would give party strategists pause.
Voters judge Labor as being better managers of two issues – the environment (30 to 23 percent) and ‘welfare and benefits’ (39 to 29 percent).
And given concerns too much government spending is contributing to high inflation and a stubborn refusal for interest rates to come down, it is questionable whether Labor being better at doling out welfare and government spending is really an advantage.
In contrast, Labor trails the Coalition by significant margins on topics such as national security (23 to 42 percent), cost of living (24 to 38 percent), managing the economy (25 to 41 percent) and ‘tax and government spending’ (24 to 39 percent).
Labor even trails the Coalition on which party is better placed to manage housing, by 26 to 32 per cent, which perhaps has something to do with the poor decision by the PM to reshuffle his failed home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, into the housing portfolio.
Labor trails the Coalition on a raft of issues, according to the AFR-Freshwater poll. They are only ahead on welfare issues and the environment, the poll suggested
After all the problems in her previous portfolio, unsurprisingly Labor also trails the Coalition as the preferred manager of immigration and asylum issues, by 25 to 40 per cent.
On the issue of housing, 42 percent of those polled said that neither major party was capable of managing the housing crisis.
It comes in the wake of sustained attacks by the Greens that major policy changes to housing taxes and concessions must occur.
This could be a key point of negotiation for the Greens with Labor in the event that Albanese forms minority government after the election.
With the next election due by May of next year today’s grim numbers for the government will leave many within the Labor Party wondering if things can improve by delaying the election.
Perhaps going to the polls early – before the situation worsens – is the government’s best chance of limping back into office.
No newly elected government has failed to win a re-election contest since Labor lost the 1931 election, amid the Great Depression.
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