NRL: Here’s where YOUR team is likely to finish this season

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

The NRL kicks off on Thursday after an off-season that was remarkable for its lack of traditional off-field atrocities.

No Kings Cross drive-by shootings, players running amok in country towns or consorting with known criminals.

Not only did no players go to jail (Blake Ferguson doesn’t count, he’s rugby union’s problem now) but Jarryd Hayne actually got out early.

Apart from a couple of anti-vax holdouts, a minor possession charge and two Storm players getting on the wrong side of coach Craig Bellamy (a place no one ever wants to be) there was virtually nothing for the big-name rugby league writers to get outraged about.

Penrith are the team to beat after triumphing over the Rabbitohs in the grand final – but some key losses could hurt the Panthers 

But don’t worry, that all changes when the first ball is kicked in anger in just a few short hours.

Months of meticulous planning will have finally come to fruition. New signings will have the chance to prove their enormous salaries are warranted (or not), coaches down the bottom of the ladder last season will breathe a sigh of relief knowing their job is safe for at least another week, and who knows, the Broncos might even have settled on a five-eighth.

Like a beast from Greek mythology that cannot be killed no matter how many times it is wounded, the NRL will be back.

And how will it all turn out in season 2022?

Well, feeling rather confident after my predictions here last season (seven of the top eight, both grand finalists and two of the bottom three) I have looked back into my crystal Steeden and see it panning out this way…

Wests Tigers 

When Rabbitohs coach Wayne Bennett refused to let Netflix do a fly-on-the-wall series about his team’s march to the 2021 grand final, for some reason they signed up Michael ‘Madge’ Maguire’s Tigers instead. Problem was, the viewers didn’t know whether it was a comedy or a horror show. 

Long-time Tigers fans know the feeling well. With the club missing the finals for 10 straight seasons they often don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Even before the first game of the season there was a public spat over who to name captain (so they picked five, which could make the coin toss rather complicated) and the club’s only signing of note is playmaker Jackson Hastings who rebuilt his career in England after proving hard to work with at Manly and the Roosters. 

Madge can relate to that. He came within a whisker of losing his job at the end of last season after a player revolt but was kept on after the Tigers signed former premiership-winning coach Tim Sheens to play the overseer role. What could possibly go wrong?

TIP: Last

Michael Maguire is destined for another miserable season with Wests Tigers after coming within a whisker of losing his job in 2021

North Queensland Cowboys

Big things were expected of new coach Todd Payten last season, but he didn’t get off on the right foot when he benched the club’s biggest, best and highest-paid player Jason Taumalolo in the first round. It was all downhill from there. 

The club’s desperate search to find a playmaker to fill the giant boots of Johnathan Thurston enters its fourth year. Last season’s candidate, Broncos reject Tom Dearden, failed to inspire so they have thrown a reported $2.4million over three seasons at Chad Townsend who was on the nose at the Sharks and Warriors.

The prospect of a Townsend-Dearden halves combination won’t be giving opposition coaches too many sleepless nights. Grand finalists in 2017, they avoided the wooden spoon by just one spot last season, and I can’t see them improving this time around.

TIP: Fifteenth

Chad Townsend is the Cowboy’s big-money recruit and huge things are expected of the former Sharks playmaker

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors have made two questionable signings. Shaun Johnson (above) returns with his best years behind him

The Warriors are big, physical, scary-looking and by all reports great singers, but when the whips start cracking, they invariably fall away. In their 26 seasons since joining the competition they have made the finals just eight times. 

Having lost five genuine first graders including inspirational captain Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, there is no reason to think this season will be number nine. The club’s two biggest signings are returning Warrior Shaun Johnson, whose best years are behind him, and ex-Titan Ash Taylor, whose best years failed to arrive. 

With talk that the club’s brightest star Reece Walsh is unhappy and wants to return to Brisbane, it could be a long season for coach Nathan Brown.

TIP: Fourteenth

Brisbane Broncos 

After the worst two seasons in the club’s history the Broncos have bet the house on number 7. Securing 32-year-old former Rabbitohs halfback Adam Reynolds to a three-year deal is arguably their biggest signing since Wally Lewis. 

The pre-season hype in Brisbane has been huge but doubt began to creep in when the newly appointed captain failed to make it to the starting line for any of the club’s three trial matches due to ‘soreness’. The doubters started questioning if South Sydney knew more than they were letting on when they refused to offer Reynolds anything but a one-year contract, and whether his body is still up to the rigors of weekly NRL football. 

Adding to the gloom is the lack of an obvious five-eighth to play outside him. There’s plenty of talent in back-from-injury centre Kotoni Staggs, prop Payne Haas and new signings Kurt Capewell and Ryan James, but with up-and-comers Selwyn Cobbo and Ezra Mam still a few years off ripening, coach Kevin Walters could be in for another tough year. One thing is for certain: if Reynolds doesn’t last the next three seasons, neither will Kevvie.

TIP: Thirteenth

Adam Reynolds’s arrival has stirred excitement, but there are doubts over the captain’s fitness – and without him, the Broncos are odds-on to struggle badly

Canterbury Bulldogs

After winning just three matches and collecting the wooden spoon last season, the Dogs went shopping and spent well. They have picked up two huge names in premiership winners Matt Burton (Panthers) and Josh Addo-Carr (Storm) and a couple of project players in Brent Naden (Panthers) and Paul Vaughan (Dragons), who come to the club with long rap sheets. 

If coach Trent Barrett and incoming football manager Phil Gould can get through to them, they could prove good value – but the big question mark is over new fullback Matt Dufty. 

While there is no doubting Dufty’s attacking flair, the Dragons let him go because of concerns over his defence. It will be interesting to see whether the change of scenery improves his tackling. Little doubt the Dogs are on the rise, but not quite up to the top eight this season.

TIP: Twelfth

St George Illawarra Dragons 

Former Sea Eagles star Moses Suli could be the signing of the season for St George Illawara

The Dragons have cut dead wood and made some interesting signings, but I still can’t see them improving on last season’s position. Moses Mbye will provide great utility value and Jayden Su’a adds starch around the edges, but the signing of the season could be steamrolling centre Moses Suli. 

The one-time Tigers boy wonder who went off track before regaining his mojo at Manly could form the most dynamic centre pairing in the game alongside the fleet-footed Zac Lomax. 

Will it be enough to make the finals? Probably not, but that won’t worry coach Anthony Griffin too much after the Dragons’ board inexplicably extended his contract until the end of 2023 before a ball was kicked.

TIP: Eleventh

Newcastle Knights 

Finished seventh against all odds last season having battled a horrendous injury toll, but that will be a hard act to follow. 

The Knights have plenty of talent led by Kaylyn Ponga, David Klemmer, Bradman Best, Jason and Jacob Saifiti and prodigal son Dane Gagai, but the loss of experienced halfback Mitchell Pearce to France with no obvious replacement leaves a huge hole to fill. 

The club has hired their greatest-ever former player, 48-year-old Immortal Andrew Johns, to mentor young halves Adam Clune and Phoenix Crossland but they’d be a lot better off trying to get ‘Joey’ to play.

TIP: Tenth

Newcastle legend Andrew Johns returns to the club as a mentor to the Knights’ young halves – and he’s got his work cut out for him

Raiders

Ricky Stuart’s men were arguably the biggest disappointments of last season. I tipped them to finish fourth and the best they could manage was tenth. Ricky put a lot of faith in his English imports over recent years and for a while there it paid off, but the acrimonious split with nuggety halfback George Williams halfway through the year tore the joint apart. 

Add in ructions with fellow Englishman Josh Hodgson, and strike weapon Jack Wighton being a long way off his Dally M-winning best, and the Raiders were a shadow of the side that made the grand final in 2019. 

They still have three of the best forwards in the competition in Josh Papalii, Joe Tapine and Elliott Whitehead but their season depends on a reborn Wighton forging a winning combination with ex-Titans halfback Jamal Fogarty, and talisman centre Jarrod Croker making a successful return from stem-cell surgery.

TIP: Ninth

The Raiders are expected to just miss out on the top eight unless Jack Wighton can find form

Cronulla Sharks

All eyes will be on the highly-coveted Craig Fitzgibbon at Cronulla Sharks this season

The Sharks most talked-about signing this season isn’t a player. It’s incoming coach Craig Fitzgibbon. To read the rugby league gossip blogs, every team in the competition was chasing the former Roosters assistant’s signature and now it is time to see if the hype was warranted. 

He has some good cattle to work with in new signings Nicho Hynes, who is earmarked for five-eighth, and forwards Dale Finucane and Cameron McInnes. 

Add in the young spine of fullback Will Kennedy, half Brayden Trindall and hooker Blayke Brailey and I’m tipping a first-up finals spot.

TIP: Eighth

Gold Coast Titans

Snuck into eighth spot and could have made it to the second week of the finals if not for centre Patrick Herbert losing his mind with a try begging.

Common sense would suggest the Titans will go even further this season with that experience under their belts, but they have made it hard for themselves by releasing experienced halves Jamal Fogarty, Tyrone Peachy and the much-maligned Ash Taylor, all of whom showed patches of good form through the season. 

In their place Titans coach Justin Holbrook is relying on dynamic youngsters Toby Sexton, Jayden Campbell and AJ Brimson surviving the weekly grind of first grade football. A lot will depend on whether Holbrook can transform million-dollar man David Fifita from shock weapon into an 80-minute player. I like his chances.

TIP: Seventh

The Titans’ fortunes will depend on whether they can transform $3million man David Fifita into an 80-minute player

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Incoming coach Jason Demetriou was Wayne Bennett’s right-hand man at the Broncos and Rabbitohs. As the recently retired Benji Marshall described the set-up at the Bunnies last year: ‘Jason worked out all the tactics then Wayne came in and motivated the players.’ 

It was a successful double act but now Demetrio is very much on his own. His biggest challenges will be handling hot-headed fullback Latrell Mitchell and rebuilding the halves following the loss of captain Adam Reynolds to the Broncos.

The combination of Reynolds and Cody Walker was a cornerstone of Souths’ success and young number seven Lachlan Ilias will have to get up to speed fast if the Rabbitohs are to come within cooee of their second-place finish last year.

TIP: Sixth

Jason Demetriou takes his first step into the top job and will be tasked with handling the hot-headed Latrell Mitchell

Parramatta Eels

Things didn’t start well for the blue and gold army this year with boom winger Haze Dunster rubbed out for the season by a shocking tackle from his future brother-in-law, the Dragons’ Tyrell Fuimaono.

Luckily the club had already signed handy replacement Bailey Simonsson from the Raiders. Not that a winger here or there is going to be the difference between the Eels finally breaking through for their first premiership in 36 years. 

Well coached by Brad Arthur and with plenty of talent all over the park, they are one of those ‘there or thereabouts’ teams that can mix it with any side in the competition but when it comes to the crunch for some reason, they just don’t have it.

TIP: Fifth

The Eels have been slowly building under Brad Arthur and should be ‘there or thereabouts’ 

Manly Sea Eagles 

I made the mistake of leaving Manly out of my top eight last season and I won’t be falling for that again. The Sea Eagles were abysmal in the early rounds and then turned into world-beaters. 

The difference of course was the return from injury of Tom Trbojevic who produced one of the greatest individual seasons the game has ever witnessed. 

If he can stay fully fit and avoid late-night sprints down the Manly Corso, with support from the likes of his brother Jake, captain Daly Cherry-Evans and silky-skilled backrower Josh Schuster, there is no reason he can’t lead the Sea Eagles to consecutive top four finishes.

TIP: Fourth

Tom Trbojevic produced an incredible campaign last term and the Sea Eagles are good enough to make the top four again if he stays healthy

Penrith Panthers

Reigning premiers looking to go back-to-back with the best halves combination in the game? Should be a no-brainer, right? Well, maybe not. The Panthers celebrated long and hard after their grand final win. Perhaps too hard. They are an excitable bunch who will have to be kept on a tight leash by coach Ivan Cleary who himself tends to get a little hot-headed at times. 

The task won’t be made any easier by the loss of two of their best, centre Matt Burton and forward mainstay Kurt Capewell. Lost in the euphoria of the grand final win was the fact that they went down to the Rabbitohs in the qualifying final and then just scraped home by two, four and two points in their next three games. 

If they are faced with a similar scenario at the end of this season, they will be wishing Burton and Capewell were still in harness.

TIP: Third

Expect the Penrith Panthers to suffer a Premiership hangover at the start of the season

Roosters

If the Roosters could get to the semi-finals with the injuries they suffered last season there is no telling what they can achieve with a fit roster. The key is the return of five-eighth Luke Keary whose combination with rookie sensation Sam Walker is crucial to their chances. 

Walker fell away at the end of the year which was understandable given his physical immaturity and lack of experience, but with a full pre-season and the calming influence of Keary beside him, he should become to the Roosters what Nathan Cleary is to the Panthers. Another challenge for coach Trent Robinson is to help firebrand backrower Victor Radley walk the fine line between intimidation and suspension. 

The Roosters are a different team with Radley on the field, so Robinson has to make sure he stays there.

TIP: Second

If Trent Robinson can keep Victor Radley (above) on the pitch, the Roosters will pose a threat

Melbourne Storm

Minor premiers last season but went down to eventual premiers the Panthers by four points in the preliminary final. Suffered through the off-season from hell with key players behaving badly – Cameron Munster and Brandon Smith caught on camera in close proximity to a suspicious white powder, and Smith adding insult to injury by slamming the club’s drinking culture in a podcast.

While this could have destroyed a lesser team, in the Storm’s case it could actually be a blessing, with Munster booking into rehab and promising to return to his scintillating best in the hope of getting back into coach Craig Bellamy’s good books.

The club has lost three big names in winger Josh Addo-Carr, utility back Nicho Hynes and powerhouse forward Dale Finucane but recruited well in Origin winger Xavier Coates and ex-Knights workhorse backrower Josh King. 

Big names Felise Kaufusi, Smith and brothers Kenny and Jesse Bromwich are heading off to greener pastures at the end of the season and will be keen to go out in style, so I’m tipping the Storm to go all the way.

TIP: Premiers

The Storm have endured off-field chaos this summer but that should galvanise their group