The links between moderate alcohol consumption and an early death are ‘exaggerated’, according to a world-renowned data scientist.
Statistically, the risk of drinking one beer or wine per day on your life expectancy is no higher than driving a car or eating bacon, said Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician Cambridge University.
Many health organizations have been leaning towards a drier public health policy -the World Health Organization has said that there is no safe level of booze.
But Sir Spiegelhalter told the BBC: ‘Frankly I get irritated when the harms of low levels are exaggerated, particularly with claims such as “no level of alcohol is safe”.
‘For a start I don’t think the evidence supports that, but also there’s no safe level of driving, there’s no safe level of living, but no one recommends abstention.’
He said research indicated there were actually health benefits to drinking in small amounts.
Researchers from WHO warned that alcohol use is among the leading risk factors for premature mortality and disability, with younger people disproportionately affected
In the past decade, the tide has been turning against alcohol.
A major Oxford University study released in June 2023 linked regular alcohol use to more than 60 diseases – including cancer, diabetes, gout and cataracts.
In the same year, Canadian health officials released new alcohol guidelines for the country based on their review of the research and came up with a limit of just two drinks per week.
Dr Tim Stockwell, a scientist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research who was on the panel that set the new guidelines, told the BBC: ‘Increasingly the evidence is tilting towards there being no benefits and that alcohol is essentially a risky substance.’
And US officials last year told DailyMail.com they were considering shifting alcohol guidelines to no more than two beers a week in 2025.
It’s true that drinking in high amounts daily is bad for health, Sir Spiegelhalter said.
But the average person is more likely a moderate drinker- having one or two beverages a day – and at that level of drinking, Sir Spiegelhalter said research shows the effects on health are very slim.
‘Whatever the risks are [of having one or two drinks a day] we know they are very low indeed. And we also know they are incredibly difficult to estimate.’
He called the Canadian guidelines, ‘completely unnecessary. I kind of think this is tackling a non problem’.
Further, telling people who are already drinking minimally that they need to drink less might make them distrustful of public health officials in general.
Plus, he said, the argument to abstain for health often ignores a crucial factor of alcohol – it brings people joy.
Statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said that guidances that clamp down on moderate drinking are often exaggerated
Sir Spiegelhalter said there is even a ‘benefit from drinking at low to moderate levels, and that is never mentioned in these discussions.’
These benefits are mainly social. People use alcohol to ease anxiety when they’re socializing, or as an excuse to get together with friends they haven’t seen in a while.
Other times, people merely like the taste, and enjoy savoring a glass of wine alongside a steak dinner, perhaps.
‘I think we should just accept that people drink for a reason – they actually enjoy it,’ Sir Spiegelhalter said.
That’s not to say he’s in favor of no guidelines at all. He said the current guidelines in place in the United Kingdom by their National Health Service are ideal.
These include drinking no more than 14 units of alcohol per week – which would be like 14 shots of liquor, or six medium glasses of wine or pints of beer.
This is similar to current recommendations set in the US – which say men should have two drinks or less per day and women should have one drink or less per day.
There is still a risk at that level of consumption, Sir Spiegelhalter said, but it’s roughly the same level of risk associated with watching an hour of TV a day or two bacon sandwiches a week.
People still opt to do these things that pose risk to their health – like consuming high fat, high salt foods like bacon.
Dr Spiegelhalter said: ‘These seem to be imminent acceptable voluntary risks that people take in their lives. People are grown ups. They can make their own decisions on this.’
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