Pakistan has devolved into an ‘extremist Islamic state’ with a ‘low threshold’ for activating its nuclear arsenal, Indian security analyst Sarjan P Shah tells the Mail’s ‘Apocalypse Now?’ podcast

The world has not fully woken up to the fact that Pakistan has become an ‘Islamic extremist, nuclear-powered state’, Indian security analyst Sarjan P Shah warned on the latest episode of the Mail’s ‘Apocalypse Now?’ podcast.

Tensions between India and Pakistan reached their highest level in almost a decade on Wednesday after 31 people were killed in missile strikes against Islamabad controlled Kashmir.

India claims the strikes targeted ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in the disputed region. Many view the attack as retaliation for the killing of 22 Indian tourists by four gunmen in Pahalgam on the 22nd of April.

Indian officials described the perpetrators as terrorists who had ‘cross-border links’ to Pakistan.

Speaking to the Mail’s special correspondent David Patrikarakos, security analyst Mr Shah said the latest escalation between the two countries is a result of Pakistani officials increasingly extreme and hawkish rhetoric towards India.

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Mr Shah said the latest escalation between the two countries is a result of Pakistani officials increasingly extreme and hawkish rhetoric towards India

Indian Air Force soldiers arrive at Pampore in Pulwama district of Indian controlled Kashmir, Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Pakistan’s Hatf-IV Shaheen-1 missile, an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, taking off during a test-firing from an undisclosed location 

He explained: ‘A week before the 22nd of April, Pakistan’s army general, Asim Munir, delivered an incendiary speech.

‘What stood out to me, and I think all close observers of Pakistan, was the intransigence and almost Islamofascist ideology that the general expressed.

‘To resounding applause, he described Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein – and then a week later, we saw this incident.

‘What most people have not yet recognised is the gradual seep of extremist interpretations of Islam throughout Pakistani society.

‘The world has failed to see that, in many ways, Pakistan is truly an extremist Islamic, nuclear-powered state.’

On Thursday, both sides accused the other of using drones to attack its separate territory inside of Kashmir.

Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan. When British India was partitioned, the contested region sought independence but later acceded into India after Pakistan tried to invade the entire territory.

Kashmir is now a hotbed for tensions, with India, Pakistan and China all controlling swathes of the majority Muslim province.

Mr Shah then described what he called Pakistan’s ‘crazy Ivan strategy’, denoting the nation’s low threshold for the use of its nuclear weapons.

Indian school students take part in a mock drill at Rajkiya Sarvodaya Vidyalaya in New Delhi, India, May 7 2025

India fired missiles at Pakistani territory early on May 7, killing several people, according to Pakistan, which said it had begun retaliating in a major escalation

Pakistan is assumed to possess around 170 nuclear warheads, making it the world’s sixth greatest nuclear power.

Due to its small economy and population size compared to India, Pakistan has always threatened it would deploy its warheads in the event of a war between the two nations.

‘India has consistently maintained a no first strike policy’, Mr Shah said.

‘In contrast, Pakistani nuclear doctrine maintains the right to first strike – which makes sense given their conventional inferiority against India’s armed forces.

‘But there’s an additional layer to this – there’s a phrase in Hindi I like to use, which translated into English, would be something like, Pakistan’s crazy Ivan strategy.

‘Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine tries to send a message to the world that the country is actually crazy enough to use these things.

‘The message is, we have a low threshold to activate our nuclear arsenal, as Pakistan believes it is its best deterrent against India, or any adversaries.

‘India has now started calling their bluff – and are seeing how it can go, in order to express a zero-tolerance policy as far as terrorism in Kashmir is concerned.’

Search for ‘Apocalypse Now?’ with special guest Sarjan P Shah, wherever you get your podcasts.

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