Polling booths have closed in New South Wales with the state facing a hung parliament for the first time since the aftermath of the 1991 election.
Opinion polls and betting markets are predicting the Coalition will be returned without a majority, as it possibly loses six seats to Labor.
Gladys Berejiklian is set to be returned as premier but will be forced to rely on the support of key regional independents to govern.
The daughter of Armenian migrants would be Australia’s first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right.
It would also be the first time since 1971 that the Coalition would have secured a third consecutive term.
Gladys Berejiklian (picutred) is set to be returned as premier but will be forced to rely on the support of key regional independents to govern. Polling booths have closed in New South Wales with the state facing a hung parliament for the first time since the aftermath of the 1991 election
A Nine exit poll is pointing to a swing of 2.3 per cent to Labor in Australia’s most populous state, with both parties on 50:50 support after preferences.
If replicated across the state, the government would lose six seats, taking its numbers down to 46.
This would be one short of a majority in the 93-seat lower house of Parliament, forcing Ms Berejiklian to rely on a regional independent, Joe McGirr in Wagga Wagga or Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie, to govern.
Sydney independent Alex Greenwich, a gay marriage campaigner, could also potentially support a minority Coalition government.
The daughter of Armenian migrants would be Australia’s first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right
The Opposition would only pick East Hills and Coogee from the Liberal Party in Sydney.
The National Party would be under threat in Upper Hunter and possibly in Monaro, held by deputy premier John Barilaro.
A swing of that magnitude would see Labor fail to regain from the Nationals the coastal seat of Tweed, which straddles the Queensland border.
The National Party, however, is under threat in the seats of Barwon and Murray in the state’s west from the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party.
Liberal Sports Minister Stuart Ayres would also be safe in his western Sydney seat of Penrith.
Labor was hopeful of an upset win in Goulburn in southern NSW, which it hasn’t held since 1965, following the retirement of cabinet minister Pru Goward, the mother of former model Tziporah Malkah.
Labor needs to pick up 13 seats in Saturday’s election to clinch an outright majority, but the exit poll indicates that is unlikely.
A special Newspoll, published in The Weekend Australian, showed the coalition ahead of Labor 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis.
Voting booths closed at 6pm AEDT.
On present exit poll results, this is shaping up to be the first hung parliament in NSW since 1991 when Nick Greiner was Liberal Party premier.
Just last week, Labor was leading in the polls, with a UComms /ReachTel poll showing the Opposition leading the government 51 to 49 per cent, after preferences.
While most polls are tipping a hung parliament after the election Malcolm Mackerras, a veteran election analyst, is predicting Ms Berejikian’s Coalition government will be returned with a majority based on the strength of the state economy.
‘I do think she deserves to be re-elected,’ he told Daily Mail Australia.
‘Also, she has changed her reputation from being indecisive to being decisive by insisting on the stadiums decisions that they’ve made and not being bullied out of those decisions.
‘I think she’s personally competent.’
Mr Mackerras predicted the Berejiklian government would lose four seats, giving it 48 electorates in the lower house of Parliament.
While Labor is possibly struggling in Sydney, Mr Mackerras saw Labor picking up Goulburn in southern NSW from the Liberal Party, winning a seat it has not held since 1965.
Former senator Ursula Stephens is Labor’s candidate in a seat where cabinet minister Pru Goward, the mother of former model Tziporah Malkah, is retiring.
Mr Mackerras also saw Labor picking up Coogee, East Hills and Lismore, which also hasn’t been an ALP electorate for 53 years.
After East Hills, the government’s most marginal seats are National Party electorates in the country, including Upper Hunter, Monaro and Tweed, which Labor is targeting.
Mr Mackerras said Labor’s best chances were in regional areas, which won’t be receiving big-ticket public transport projects or any new stadiums.
‘I’m inclined to think that will be the case,’ he said.
In northern NSW the Greens may be in danger of losing Ballina to either the National Party or Labor, Mr Mackerras said.
However, they stand a chance of being elected on Labor preferences in nearby Lismore, which contains the hippie town of Nimbin where marijuana and space cakes are sold on the main street.
West of the Great Dividing Range, the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party already holds the seat of Orange and is polling strongly in Barwon.
A Nine exit poll is pointing to a swing of 2.3 per cent to Labor (Opposition Leader Michael Daley pictured with Penrith candidate Karen McKeown) in Australia’s most populous state, with both parties on 50:50 support after preferences
The Liberal Party has released negative television election advertisements featuring former prime minister John Howard, warning of the Shooters doing preference deals with Labor in the bush.
Labor had traction early in the campaign by taking a stance against the $729 million rebuild of Allianz Stadium at Moore Park, in Sydney’s east, and another $810 million replacement of ANZ Stadium at Sydney Olympic Park.
The Opposition struggled in the final week of the campaign, following revelations he blamed Asian immigrants for taking jobs away from young Australians.