Pentagon fears Israel is plotting ground war in Lebanon soon

A series of fatal explosions of pagers and walkie talkies carried by Hezbollah fighters has heightened Pentagon concern about a potential ground war erupting in Lebanon soon as sources claimed that the US knew Israel was planning something against the militant group before the attacks.

Before hundreds of electronic devices simultaneously detonated on Tuesday and Wednesday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told other senior Pentagon officials in a Monday meeting that he feared Israel could soon retaliate and launch an offensive. US alarm regarding a possible invasion has grown since the deadly explosion attacks in Lebanon with another senior defense official sharing their concerns about the situation ‘spiraling out of control’.

But ever since the Gaza war broke out on October 7 last year, when Hamas fighters stormed a music festival in southern Israel, the Biden administration has feared a full-scale conflict could erupt on Israel’s northern frontier that could pull in the US and even Iran. US officials claimed that although they are yet to witness any concrete movement from Israel regarding an imminent invasion, and that it would take weeks for Israeli forces to launch a major offensive, that they could still launch a smaller operation with speed and without any substantial military presence.

Israeli officials, however, snapped back on Wednesday, claiming they were beginning a new stage in their head-to-head with Iram-backed Hezbollah but said the clash could be avoided if the militant group draws back its forces from southern Lebanon and ends the cross-border missile attacks. ‘We are at the start of a new phase in the war—we are allocating resources and forces to the northern arena and our mission is clear: ensuring the safe return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes,’ Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday. ‘To do so, the security situation must be changed.’

Speaking in Egypt, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Washington had no prior knowledge of what was going to happen before Tuesday and Wednesday’s attacks. But speaking on the BBC Global News Podcast, its State Department correspondent Tom Bateman claimed that message had been ‘tweaked a bit in the last few hours, with officials briefing anonymously that they did have some advanced warning’.

He added that according to these briefings, the Pentagon was told by Israelis that they were going to do ‘something’ in Lebanon yesterday – but ‘didn’t give any details on what that operation was’. ‘It’s a slightly bizarre admission I think because it begs the question: why didn’t the Americans ask them what they planned to do – when this piece of information was given to them? So I think that will be the focus of a lot more questions for the Pentagon and the State Department,’ he said.

Blinken also expressed frustration on Wednesday that the escalations between Israel and Hezbollah threaten to derail efforts to broker a cease-fire deal in Gaza amid the ongoing conflict. The diplomat spoke to reporters in Cairo, where he traveled for talks on the cease-fire negotiations and US-Egyptian relations. The United States, Egypt and other international partners are working for an agreement between Israel and Hamas to halt nearly a year of war in Gaza and release hostages held by the militant group. The US says such a deal is the best chance at tamping down wider regional tensions, with Israeli leaders threatening to step up military action against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and the pager attack risking further escalation.

‘Time and again’ when the US and other mediators believe they are making progress on a cease-fire deal in Gaza, ‘we’ve seen an event that… threatens to slow it, stop it, derail it,’ Blinken said in response to a question about the previous day’s explosions in Lebanon. Personal pagers used by Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded nearly simultaneously Tuesday, killing at least 12 people, including two children. Blinken reiterated that the US was still gathering information on the circumstances of the pager attack and declined to make more specific comments.

In other unexpected events that have put a cease-fire deal at risk, Blinken spoke of the discovery this month of the bodies of six hostages who Israel said had been recently killed by Hamas. They were among those still held in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7 attacks in Israel that sparked the war. When news came of their deaths, negotiators had been making progress on the timing and other details of a swap that would have freed hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention, America’s top diplomat said.

Blinken, who had meetings with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, said the most dire need in the troubled cease-fire negotiations was for both sides to show they actually wanted a deal. ‘The most important thing in this moment is to see a demonstration of political will,’ Blinken said. He headed to his tenth trip to the Middle East since the war in Gaza began without the optimistic projections that the Biden administration has previously conveyed of a breakthrough in the negotiations.

The US, Egypt and other allies say a deal is essential to quelling escalated attacks by Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Israeli leaders warned this week of a possible military offensive in Lebanon to stop what have become daily exchanges of rockets and missiles between Hezbollah and Israel across the southern Lebanese border.

Abdelatty, the Egyptian foreign minister, said Wednesday the region was on the brink of wider war and spoke critically of Tuesday’s targeted explosions in Lebanon. ‘Any escalation, including what happened yesterday, certainly hinders reaching a cease-fire deal and the release of hostages and detainees,’ he said. ‘Certainly what happened doesn’t only hinder the current talks, but also risks getting into a full-scale war.’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of slow-rolling the talks for a cease-fire in Gaza because a deal could mean the collapse of his hardline coalition government, with some members opposed to any deal with the Palestinians.

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