For most of her premiership, Theresa May refused to rule out a hard Brexit. ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ was her mantra, endlessly repeated. It made her the heroine of the Tory party’s hard Brexiteers.
She consolidated this position with her Lancaster House speech in January 2017, when she set out her vision of the future of Britain outside the single market, outside the customs union and, of course, no longer subject to the European Court of Justice.
Continuing to entertain the prospect of a No Deal was a crucial part of Mrs May’s strategy of keeping the Tory party together. The Prime Minister is conscious that Europe has broken the last three Conservative prime ministers. She did not want to be remembered as the leader of the Tory party which finally and decisively split over the European Union.
But even more importantly, nor does she want to be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Theresa May did not want to be remembered as the leader of the Tory party which finally and decisively split over the European Union. But even more importantly, nor does she want to be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
According to numerous sources I’ve spoken to this week, that is why, after the historic seven-hour long Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the Prime Minister effectively ruled out a No Deal Brexit in her statement to the nation. It was a momentous occasion in which she tore up her long-standing political strategy. She would no longer be pressing on with her vision of Brexit with the support of (some of) the Conservative party and its Democratic Unionist Party allies alone.
Instead she was turning her back on many of her own Tory supporters and, by inviting Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to participate in talks, looking towards gaining Labour votes for her deal instead.
The brutal conclusion must be that Mrs May is going to find it very difficult to keep the Tory party together. She knows that perhaps half of her backbench MPs will vote against a customs union, which is the likely outcome of any deal with Jeremy Corbyn.
But for the sake of delivering Brexit, she has risked her dream of Tory unity because patriotism comes first.
I am told that she first woke up to the huge dangers inherent in a No Deal Brexit on her visit to Northern Ireland in February.
She returned deeply shaken after being warned that a hard Brexit would lead, as night follows day, to the destruction of the United Kingdom. ‘If any one thing changed the Prime Minister’s mind, it was this,’ a Downing Street source told me. ‘She was told of the tensions that No Deal would cause.’
Sinn Fein has already been campaigning for a fresh referendum on Northern Ireland’s future in the United Kingdom.
She knows that perhaps half of her backbench MPs will vote against a customs union, which is the likely outcome of any deal with Jeremy Corbyn. But for the sake of delivering Brexit, she has risked her dream of Tory unity because patriotism comes first
May was told that pressure for such a poll would become irresistible if a hard border was put up between the North and South in the event of No Deal — such an arrangement would breach the Good Friday Agreement.
Furthermore, sentiment is changing in Northern Ireland. They have seen the rebirth of prosperity in the South — due largely to the largesse of the EU — and they want the same. It is by no means certain that the Unionists’ support will hold.
Meanwhile, a No Deal Brexit would trigger calls for another EU referendum in Scotland, which overwhelmingly voted Remain and, many believe, would re-ignite calls for independence.
In light of this, it is scarcely surprising that there are widespread rumours among senior ministers that the Queen herself has expressed concern — as well she might — about the future of the Union.
It is, of course, the case that the weekly meetings between the Queen and her Prime Minister at Buckingham Palace are entirely private. But Palace sources told me yesterday that it was ‘impossible that the Queen would have made such an intervention in British politics’.
That may well be the case, but I can reveal the contents of another private conversation that has certainly contributed to the Prime Minister’s thinking.
Recently, she had a 20-minute conversation with the Archbishop of Canterbury, who took the opportunity to warn her of the ‘dire consequences’ of Brexit.
A hard Brexit would be ‘immoral’ because of the economic impact on poorer people, he said.
Mrs May is the daughter of the Reverend Hubert Brasier, the former vicar of St Mary’s in Wheatley, Oxfordshire. These sombre words struck home.
She knows that perhaps half of her backbench MPs will vote against a customs union, which is the likely outcome of any deal with Jeremy Corbyn. But for the sake of delivering Brexit, she has risked her dream of Tory unity because patriotism comes first. Pictured: Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer after a meeting with Theresa May
It is fair to say the woman who has been derided for so long as stubborn beyond imagining has not only changed her political strategy regarding a hard Brexit, she has also changed her mind.
Hence her letter yesterday to the EU President Donald Tusk requesting a further delay to Brexit until June 30.
Initially, it seemed there was grounds for optimism. Even before the letter was dispatched, Tusk himself was suggesting a 12-month Brexit ‘flextension’.
Unfortunately, other EU leaders proved less sympathetic yesterday with the Germans, Dutch and French questioning a fresh Brexit delay when Britain has no credible new plan.
As I write, only six days remain until Britain is set to leave the EU by automatic operation of law —unless there is some extraordinary intervention or more hardline Brexiteers and the DUP suddenly see sense and back Mrs May’s withdrawal deal.
Of course, the PM may, against all odds, be successful in coming to an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn — sufficient to get her deal through. But I am pessimistic.
Remember Mrs May has pledged to resign the moment that Britain leaves the EU.
There will then be a leadership contest which is highly likely to be won by a hard Brexiteer who would immediately set about pulling to pieces whatever commitments she had made to get Labour votes.
This is why those around the Labour leader warn him not to trust Mrs May, however well-intentioned she may be.
Terrifyingly, we remain too close to the cliff edge. Chaos and confusion still reign. And I fear that not even the Archbishop of Canterbury can dispel them.
In the same week that he tried (and failed) to recruit Sky News presenter Kay Burley as his Press secretary, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt successfully hired human rights barrister Amal Clooney as his ‘special envoy on media freedom’.
No doubt, when the Prime Minister inevitably steps down, Clooney will be swiftly drafted into Hunt’s leadership campaign team.
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt successfully hired human rights barrister Amal Clooney as his ‘special envoy on media freedom’
Hunt should, of course, be careful. The last Tory politician to go on a celebrity hiring spree was William Hague — first with Olympic athlete Lord Coe, as his chief of staff, then with Hollywood siren Angelina Jolie on a sexual violence initiative. Unsurprisingly, neither ploy went down well with the public.
The truth hurts for Brexiteers who try to fake a poll position
Thursday saw senior Brexiteers such as former cabinet minister Peter Lilley — as well as 25 Labour MPs — claim a new poll showed the majority of the public wants a No Deal Brexit.
As so often with hardcore Brexiteers, they were being disingenuous. Indeed, so misleading were they that the pollster YouGov issued a statement explaining that the opposite was true: ‘Only 25 per cent of people would consider a No Deal Brexit to be a positive outcome. Twice as many (50 per cent) would see it as a negative, and 37 per cent as a “very bad” outcome.
Even among Leave voters, only half of them see a No Deal conclusion as positive.’
That the No Deal brigade should resort to blatant falsehoods shows how desperate they have become.
According to the Conservative magazine, The Spectator, embittered Tory rivals have dubbed Home Secretary Sajid Javid ‘Sajid Chavid’. Why? Because despite being Culture Secretary four years ago, he has never seen an opera, apparently.
These Tory snobs evidently forget that, unlike many public school alumni, sons of Pakistani bus drivers rarely have a family box at the Royal Opera House.
I have no brief with Javid, but it is disgusting that he should be gratuitously smeared in such an ugly manner.