Almost everyone at Westminster had written off Philip Hammond by the time he stood up to deliver his Budget speech yesterday lunchtime.
And for excellent reasons. Let’s be honest. The Chancellor has zero charisma and negligible intellect.
Relations with 10 Downing Street have been fraught. Reportedly, the Prime Minister cannot bear to be in the same room as her Chancellor. And vice versa. One’s sympathy is with Mrs May.
There is no getting away from the fact that Philip Hammond is a narrow-minded, self-regarding bore.
Philip Hammond’s career, and by extension the career of Mrs May, was hanging by a thread as he went to deliver his Budget this morning
Like all bores he is much too fond of his own voice and no good at listening. That is why his Budget last March was a debacle.
Most good judges assumed history would repeat itself. Had it done so Mr Hammond’s career would have been finished. If so, no one would have minded one jot, except for one vital fact. The end of Mr Hammond wouldn’t merely have been a personal disaster for the Chancellor. It would have been a political calamity for the Government.
In the past month, Mrs May has lost two members of her Cabinet. It is possible that her deputy, Damian Green, under official investigation over the revelation that pornography was allegedly found on his office computer, could follow suit.
The Prime Minister herself has been on the ropes. The loss of her Chancellor could have been terminal.
So it was not just Philip Hammond’s job that was on the line yesterday. So was Mrs May’s. The stakes were high, and Labour scented blood as Mr Hammond stood up to speak.
He looked pale and vulnerable. He was Mrs May’s air raid shelter and both of them knew it.
To the stupefaction of many, not least myself, Mr Hammond produced a half-decent Budget. Again, let’s be honest. He’s not a great chancellor and never will be. But he did enough — and that in itself was a triumph.
This was not a financial statement that will change the world. No one will look back at it, as they do at the Budgets of Geoffrey Howe, and record that they changed economic history.
But Mr Hammond got the Government out of jail. He went out to bat at a tricky time, with the wicket playing up and several star players already back in the pavilion, and played a solid, defensive innings. He made the Government look and sound competent. Bearing in mind recent events, that counts as a truly remarkable achievement.
More important still, there was something in it for the voters.
To the surprise of many he pulled a Get Out Of Jail card from his pocket, making the government look sound and competent
In recent Budgets Tory chancellors (Mr Hammond’s immediate predecessor George Osborne was also guilty) have given the impression that the Conservative Party was determined to alienate as many of its supporters as possible.
That was the case with Mr Hammond’s Budget this spring, which callously targeted millions of hard-working self-employed people and small business owners by trying to raise National Insurance contributions.
Mr Hammond yesterday proved that he is not completely stupid. He has learned his lesson, setting about mending fences, rather than creating enmity against the Government.
To take one example, many benefits claimants have lost out when moving across to the new all-embracing Universal Credit. This has not been as a consequence of any flaw in the Universal Credit scheme, introduced by Iain Duncan Smith in David Cameron’s government.
Quite the contrary, Universal Credit is shaping up to be the most important welfare reform this century.
The problem has arisen as the result of a typically heartless decision by Mr Osborne while Chancellor. He insisted claimants should wait six weeks before getting paid.
Almost everyone in full-time employment would find it hard to cope with a six-week gap between salary cheques — and in the case of Universal Credit we are talking about the poorest and most vulnerable section of society.
Three cheers for Philip Hammond for addressing a crying scandal and glaring injustice!
Likewise the NHS. Despite the commendable efforts of nurses and doctors, resources are running short and Mr Hammond has reacted by providing extra money.
I have no doubt Tory Right-wing headbangers will be annoyed by this infraction of fiscal discipline.
But this caring pragmatism shows that the Government is not as out of touch with voters as critics say.
Likewise, Mr Hammond has set aside £3billion as a contingency for Brexit. That’s common sense, because it gives the Government added flexibility in case talks with Europe break down.
Mr Hammond was also absolutely right to crack down on greedy corporations that avoid British tax by sending their profits to sneaky offshore tax havens. The British are fair-minded people and we don’t mind paying our taxes. But it is outrageous that international corporations, which make such huge profits in this country, should avoid tax in this way.
Once again, Mr Hammond will probably face criticism from unscrupulous Tory donors for this fair-minded measure. The rest of us will cheer him to the rafters!
While some right-wing Tory headbangers will bemoan a lack of fiscal discipline, but it was necessary to show the government has not lost touch with voters
Then the Chancellor, having reassured the financial markets and got Tory backbenchers onside, really began to play his strokes.
His scheme to build 300,000 houses a year is magnificently ambitious, if expensive. He hopes to create the biggest house-building programme since the days when Harold Wilson was Prime Minister, and thus remedy the grotesque generational unfairness that prevents young people getting on the housing ladder.
Once again, three cheers for the Chancellor! I also feel certain all decent people will applaud Mr Hammond’s brave decision to double council tax on rich people who leave properties empty. It is a scandal that super-rich foreigners buy British property solely as an investment, thus depriving ordinary people of homes.
This move is not just the right thing to do. It will prove very popular with voters and is thus good politics as well. I predict Mr Hammond’s calm, sensible Budget will bring about a change in the political landscape. There has been a mood recently that the Conservative Party had lost its way and was no longer capable of government.
That is now set to change — and only in part because Jeremy Corbyn’s blustering and, frankly, pathetic Commons reply to the Hammond Budget drew attention to Labour weaknesses. For the first time since the General Election disaster last spring, the May Government now feels back in command.
Critics will say that it was not a great reforming Budget. So what! Britain is dealing with Brexit, one of the greatest changes in our national life since World War II. That leaves no scope for other great reforms. The best we can hope for is a solid, capable Chancellor who can keep things stable.
Yesterday, Mr Hammond proved that he can be that, and in doing so did a great favour to Prime Minister May. He has also administered an important blow to her enemies inside and outside the Government.
The wind has certainly been knocked out of Corbyn’s sails. This well-crafted Budget has exposed the emptiness of Labour’s economic policy and leaves them looking vulnerable. I suggest the near-hysteria surrounding Corbyn’s leadership may well have peaked.
If only Philip Hammond had produced a Budget of this calibre last spring, I dare say the Tories would have won the election outright.
Mr Hammond is no genius and never will be. But yesterday he did just what was needed with some competence.
And that competence has utterly transformed the political landscape. This morning, courtesy of Philip Hammond, Britain enters new political territory.