The latest polling suggests that Kamala Harris has received little to no convention boost, showing Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in several crucial swing states.
A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest contests – considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada – show Trump either in the lead or even with Harris.
Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania and 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, two states that flipped to red in 2016 when Trump won before flipping back to Democrats in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.
The Trafalgar survey, which is considered by polling aggregators to lean Republican, also shows Harris almost even with Trump in Michigan, with the former president eking out a 47% to 46.6% lead.
Michigan was another state that Trump took from Hillary Clinton in 2016 before ceding to Biden four years later.
The latest polling suggests that Kamala Harris has received little to no convention boost, showing Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in five crucial swing states
A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest contests – considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan , North Carolina and Nevada – show Trump either in the lead or even with Harris
A separate survey by Insider Advantage shows Trump up by one point in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%) with Harris and Trump level at 48% in Georgia.
Both campaigns are targeting independent and undecided voters in the seven key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nevada voted blue in both 2016 and 2020 and has the least influence on the Electoral College of all the battlegrounds with only six votes.
In the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted red and only Nevada went blue.
But in the 2020 race between Trump and Joe Biden, five of the six states that went red in the prior election cycles flipped blue.
Only the southern state of North Carolina remained red.
Trump, Harris and their running mates – Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz respectively – are barnstorming these battleground states.
It’s a much needed boost in the polls for Trump, who still trails in the RealClearPolling average by 1.8 points to Harris.
Both campaigns – including Harris running mate Tim Walz – are targeting independent and undecided voters in the seven key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Trump, Harris and their running mates – Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (pictured) and Minnesota Gov. Walz respectively – are barnstorming these battleground states
Harris has a 57% chance to win in the FiveThirtyEight election model, while Nate Silver’s model also shows the vice president with a slight edge.
It comes after news that the VP didn’t earn any boost in polling after the Democratic National Convention.
Usually the love fest of a political convention results in a surge for the party’s candidate – but this year yielded an exception for both the Republican and Democratic events.
The vice president’s odds are essentially the same now as they were before the DNC in Chicago two weeks ago, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
Harris has 50 percent support among all adults and registered voters compared to 46 percent who say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today.
Her lead is 2 percent outside of the survey’s margin of error – but that small lead has historically meant little to nothing for candidates’ actual odds of victory in November.
Although the results are nearly identical to before the DNC, the gender gap preference has widened with women preferring Harris over Trump by 13 points, 54 percent to 41 percent.
Before the Convention, Harris was ahead with women voters by 6 points and 3 points among men in ABC’s polling.
It’s a much needed boost in the polls for Trump, who still trails in the RealClearPolling average by 1.8 points to Harris
It comes after news that the VP didn’t earn any boost in polling after the Democratic National Convention
Trump now leads among men by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Similarly to Harris, Trump also did not experience the usual post-Convention bounce after the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in July.
The stagnant nature of the standing between Trump and Harris is indicative of the locked-in nature of the highly polarized 2024 race as the campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.
Trump leads in top concerns that voters care about heading into the election, including an 8 percent advance in trust to address the economy and soaring inflation and a 9 point lead in handling immigration at the southern border.
The candidates’ running mates are head-to-head with only one percentage point division of those who think they are prepared to be president if needed. Walz has 50 percent confidence compared to the 49 percent earned by Vance.
But a quarter of survey respondents were not ready to express their opinion of either Walz or Vance.
Much of this week’s narrative appears set to preview the September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, televised by ABC News.
Trump will appear at a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on September 4.
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