Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system – ignoring the polls and pundits – based on what he calls ’13 keys’ to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Lichtman to call Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Allan Lichtman, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Lichtman said: ‘They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.’
Two other keys were looking ‘shaky’ weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates – incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections – stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats – meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
He goes on to explain that a false key is good for Donald Trump.
The incumbency key covers the sitting president running for re-election.
‘Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key – it is false,’ he told the newspaper.
Had Biden remained in the race, the Democrats would have salvaged the incumbency key, according to Allan’s model.
The White House party avoided a primary contest – the third key – as Allen explained how the Democrats ‘got smart’ and united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
This means the key is true – moving Harris off the starting block in the race.
As there is no third-party challenger with RFK Jr dropping out of the race with no other third party candidate anywhere close to the 10 per cent polling threshold needed to turn this key – it means it is true.
Allan said the short-term economy – key number five – is strong as it is not in recession rendering the key true.
Long-term economic growth during the current presidential term has been at least as good as the last two terms, said Allan, who went on to explain how growth during Biden’s term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms.
This, according to the model means the key is true.
The seventh key – policy changes – comes into play as the White House had made major changes to national policy, said Allan.
‘Rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction and climate change bill – clearly the key is true,’ he added.
Although there have been sporadic protests, nothing near the massive quantity of social unrest that is needed to turn the eighth key has taken place.
So the social unrest key is true, according to the model’s creator.
The scandal key – Allan’s self-professed favorite – has been considered true in his eyes as he explained how Republicans have been desperately attempting to pin a scandal on Biden but nothing has ever stuck.
He went on to comment on how the controversy surrounding his son Hunter Biden did not count within the scandal key as it has to revolve around the president himself – and not a family member.
Allan predicted that ‘the Democrats will hold on to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States’
By the end of Allan’s prediction race, Donald Trump had lost – rendering the Democrats this year’s winner
The incumbent charisma key is ‘high threshold’ as the individual must be a ‘one-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate’.
But in Allan’s eyes – Harris has not met that standard, rendering the key false.
Challenger charisma is the eleventh key, but just because some people see Trump as a god, he only appeals to a narrow audience, meaning the key is true.
Just from the result of these keys alone, Allan predicted that ‘the Democrats will hold on to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States’.
However, the foreign policy keys could flip the outcome with the Biden Administration deeply invested in the war in Gaza.
‘But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House’.
Allan said his system allows him ‘to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.’
‘There are some unpredictable factors out there,’ he said while hyping the prediction on YouTube.
He bristles at commentators who point to the single time in recent decades that his model doesn’t hold up: for the disputed 2000 election where the Florida courts stopped a recount in a race where Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote against George W. Bush. (He also runs it back retroactively to Lincoln’s election of 1860).
‘It wasn’t my mistake… It was Florida that screwed up, that based on the intent of voters… because of ballots that were tossed, that wrote in Gore and punched in Gore, Gore should have won that election going away,’ Allan said on his YouTube channel.
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