Putin ‘negotiated guarantees for his safety with President Xi in case he loses power’

Vladimir Putin has negotiated guarantees for his safety with China’s President Xi Jinping in case he is kicked out of power, Ukraine believes.

It is suspected that should he be deposed the Russian leader would shelter in China with a non-extradition agreement in place, meaning China would not send him abroad to face trial over charges of war crimes committed during his invasion.

Xi visited Moscow and met his despotic Russian counterpart last week, with the pair professing friendship and pledging closer ties, as Putin’s forces continue to struggle to make gains in what it calls a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

The full details of their conversations during the summit have not been released, but the meeting has been seen widely as China offering its backing to Putin as Western nations – such as the US, UK, Germany and other Nato allies – unite behind Ukraine.

Some analysts have also interpreted the meeting as a demonstration that Xi has greater power in the relationship, with Beijing having helped bail Russia out from under western sanctions imposed on Moscow’s economy following the invasion.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Tweeted on Monday (pictured) that Putin’s safety in case he loses power was one of the ‘main negotiation topics’ between Putin and Xi during their meetings last week

Now, according a ministerial adviser in Ukraine, it is believed that one of the topics of conversation during the summit was over Putin’s safety should be lose his power.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, tweeted today that it was likely that this was one of the ‘main negotiation topics’ between Putin and Xi during their meetings last week.

Were Putin to be deposed, Gerashchenko said the deal would see the Russian leader escape to China, with a non-extradition agreement in place.

The report of the deal comes after Putin was charged by the International Criminal Court with illegally deporting Ukrainian children to Russia earlier this month. 

‘It is probable that one of the main negotiation topics between Putin and Xi Jinping were guarantees of Putin’s personal safety in case he loses power, a possible shelter for him in China and non-extradition for international tribunal,’ Gerashchenko wrote.

Despite public dissent in Russia being rare on account of its draconian anti free-speech laws, there have been reports of dissatisfaction over Putin’s leadership.

Russia’s spectacular military failures in Ukraine have led to murmurings of opposition – particularly among the country’s more hard-line, pro-war groups.

While their ire tends to be directed more towards failing Russian generals, other military leaders – such as Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov – have been more vocal about their dissatisfaction with the war’s progress.

If the trajectory of Putin’s war in Ukraine continues downward and discontent among Russia’s elites reaches boiling point, Kremlin insiders or opportunistic wildcards could mutiny. This could see Putin removed from his position of ultimate authority.

A co-ordinated plot to usurp the despot via political will and influence – like presidents Gorbachev and Khrushchev before him – would likely come from within Russia’s official power structure.

Ukrainian soldiers ride atop an armoured personnel carrier on the frontline in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, yesterday

Smoke rises from a burning building yesterday in an aerial view of Bakhmut, the site of heavy battles with Russian troops in the Donetsk region

In the unlikely event that he is deposed and is able to escape, Putin would likely look to flee to safety abroad to avoid facing punishment at home.

Such a deal with Xi Jinping would make China an ideal destination for Putin.

It was not clear from Gerashchenko’s tweet what Xi would gain from such a deal, and he did did not speculate on what Putin offered Xi in return. 

Should Putin lose power, he would likely be seen as useless in Beijing’s own plan for the world, and he would be considered a wanted man.

The ICC issued an arrest warrant earlier this month accusing Putin of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. It said there are reasonable grounds to believe that Putin bears individual criminal responsibility.

Russian officials have cautioned that any attempt to arrest Putin, Russia’s paramount leader since the last day of 1999, would amount to a declaration of war against the world’s largest nuclear power.

In its first warrant for Ukraine, the ICC called for Putin’s arrest on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children and unlawful transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to the Russian Federation since February 24 last year.

The Kremlin says the ICC arrest warrant is an outrageously partisan decision, but meaningless with respect to Russia. Russian officials deny war crimes in Ukraine and say the West has ignored what it says are Ukrainian war crimes.

Big powers such as Russia, the United States and China are not members of the ICC though 123 countries are parties to the Rome Statute, which set up the ICC, including Britain, France, Germany and some former Soviet republics such as Tajikistan.

Ukraine is not a member of the ICC, although Kyiv granted it jurisdiction to prosecute crimes committed on its territory. 

Speaking after the warrant was issued earlier this month, one expert suggested that the ICC charge could hasten Putin’s removal from power.

Sir Geoffrey Nice, who was the lead prosecutor at former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic’s trial, said it was ‘extremely important’ that the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during their dinner at The Palace of the Facets, a building in the Moscow Kremlin, March 21

He suggested that Putin being ‘labelled and treated as a criminal’ could inspire a change in regime or ‘encourage the process of replacement’.

‘There’s enough information seeping out to indicate that there are some unhappy with his leadership,’ Sir Geoffrey told Sky News on Friday. 

‘It’s important because this man is now – as many would say he should have been a few weeks after the war started – labelled as a criminal.’

Sir Geoffrey added that the war in Ukraine is now a ‘right, just war’ that is being ‘criminally led.’