Vladimir Putin this morning signed off on an updated version of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine that broadens the scope for Moscow to turn to its fearsome atomic arsenal on the same day that US-made missiles rained down on Russian soil.
The new document, which replaces the previous iteration outlined in 2020, allows Putin’s strategic forces to deploy their devastating weapons if Russia or Belarus is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
Threats that could warrant a nuclear response from Russia’s leadership include an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft, according to the updated document.
Ukraine’s strike on an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region this morning with US-supplied ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) meets these criteria, with Moscow saying that it marks a ‘new phase of the Western war’.
‘This is, of course, a signal that they want to escalate,’ Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at a G20 press conference in Brazil, said of the strike.
‘We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly,’ he added, accusing Washington of helping Kyiv operate the missiles.
Lavrov also urged the West to read the decree signed by Putin, saying in a stark warning: ‘I hope that they will read this doctrine… in its entirety.’
But Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed Putin’s so-called ‘red lines’ and the provision of ATACMS – which boasts an operational range of up to 190 miles – has brought hundreds of prized Russian military and logistics assets within range of Kyiv’s crosshairs.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think-tank, has established a list of nearly 250 high-value military and paramilitary targets within range of the weapons that could be demolished by Ukraine.
Among the main targets that the ISW assesses Ukraine may seek to strike include a slew of brigade and division headquarters, artillery and missile units central to Russia’s air defence capabilities, logistics hubs supplying Putin’s units on the frontlines, and as many as 16 Russian air bases.
Vladimir Putin this morning signed off on an updated version of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine that broadens the scope for Moscow to turn to its fearsome atomic arsenal
A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is launched as part of nuclear deterrence forces drills from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, in Arkhangelsk Oblast, northwestern Russia, 29 October 2024
A fiery explosion lit up the night sky around 77 miles from the nearest Ukrainian border at an ammunition store in Karachev, in Russia’s Bryansk region, on Tuesday
The ATACMS strike in Bryansk on what is the 1,000th day of war in Ukraine triggered a fiery explosion at an ammunition depot in Karachev around 75 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Eyewitnesses along with Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers first reported the attack, with anonymous Ukrainian military officials later telling RBC Ukraine the strike was conducted with the US-manufactured ATACMS.
Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
The punishing strike comes just three days after Ukraine received the green light from the Biden administration to turn the weapons on targets inside Russia.
In anticipation of Ukraine receiving permission to use ATACMS, Russia’s air force is said to have redeployed many of its fighter jets and strategic bomber aircraft away from the airbases in range of the missiles to sites further east.
But there are still more than 200 military facilities that could be battered by the US-manufactured munitions from positions along the 800-mile-long frontline.
Among the first likely targets for Ukrainian strikes could be the Kuzminka Military Base, a critical staging area for Putin’s forces between the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and the Ukrainian border which acts as a hub for vehicle storage, troop assembly and operational planning.
Russia’s 381st artillery regiment is also located close to the Kuzminka base along with several logistics centres.
Meanwhile, in Kursk, Kyiv’s troops could seek to target the headquarters of Russia’s 448th Missile Brigade or regional assembly points used to gather troops preparing to push back the Ukrainian incursion in the region.
Targeting these sites could cripple Russian logistics, command, and combat support, significantly reducing Moscow’s offensive capabilities in occupied Ukrainian territory and harming efforts to retake territory in Kursk.
However, the overall supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine is short, so US officials and analysts have questioned whether allowing Ukraine to use the weapons systems is really worth it given the potential consequences that could ensue.
ATACMS – Army Tactical Missile – being fired from an M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System
Zelensky called on Kyiv’s allies to ‘force’ the Kremlin into a ‘just peace’ and vowed his forces would ‘never surrender’ to Russia in a speech to Parliament this morning
There are more than 200 prized Russian military facilities that could be battered by the US-manufactured munitions from positions along the 800-mile-long frontline
Russian army’s multiple rocket launcher Solntsepyok fires towards Ukrainian positions in the border area of Kursk region
Asked on Tuesday if a Ukrainian attack with longer-range US missiles could potentially trigger a nuclear response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered affirmatively.
He pointed to the provision in Russia’s new doctrine that allows Moscow to turn to nuclear weapons following a conventional strike that raises critical threats for the ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its ally, Belarus’.
Putin, who today signed the decree formalising Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, first announced changes to the document in September.
At the time, the Russian president said he would consider Western nations ‘direct participants’ in the war in Ukraine if they were to provide Kyiv with the ability to strike targets inside Russia.
He also suggested he may provide Russian missiles to Western adversaries to strike Western targets abroad as a course of retaliation.
Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, was critical of the Biden administration’s decision to approve the use of ATACMS on targets in Russia.
‘Expanding Ukraine’s ability to launch offensive strikes with Western weapons inside Russia will not alter the trajectory of the war or help Kyiv gain an advantage against a better equipped and more resilient adversary.
‘Any escalation could reverberate on Ukraine itself. With the Biden administration on its way out and the incoming Trump administration indicating an intention to end the war, Putin has little incentive to act with restraint in his retaliation toward Kyiv.’
But proponents of the policy say that even a few strikes deeper inside Russia would force its military to change deployments and expend more of its resources.
George Barros, leader of the Russia team and GEOINT team at ISW that compiled the list of targets, sought to highlight the way in which ATACMS could impact Putin’s troops and campaigned for the Biden administration to allow strikes beyond Kursk as a result.
‘Reminder that there are hundreds of valid, legal, legitimate, and operationally consequential military targets in range of Ukrainian ATACMS,’ he wrote.
‘The Biden Administration’s shift to allow ATACMS use in Russia is a good thing.’
Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said of Ukraine’s ATACMS attacks: ‘Many of the best targets – helicopters and glide-bomb armed aircraft attacking Ukrainian cities and troops in the north or in Kursk have largely moved to airbases outside the range of ATACMS.
‘This still leaves plenty of opportunities to strike military headquarters and ammunition or supply locations supporting Russian and North Korean troops, but this would be a reduced impact from when the Ukrainians first requested these weapons.’
It remains to be seen whether Britain and France will follow America’s lead by allowing Kyiv’s troops to attack Russian targets with Storm Shadow and SCALP long-range missiles – though it is expected the restrictions will soon be relaxed.
A Russian soldier aims from a bunker in the Russian – Ukrainian border area in Kursk
Russian soldiers patrol a village in the Russian – Ukrainian border area in the Kursk region
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, centre, walks with Vadym Fiashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, right, during a tour of frontline positions, November 18, 2024, in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast
The decision to green light the use of ATACMS on Russian targets comes as Ukrainian defences wilt under incessant pressure from Moscow’s troops.
As if to prove its enduring military capabilities, Ukraine shocked Moscow in August by piercing its border with tens of thousands of troops that Russia is still fighting to repel.
Zelensky said the operation made a mockery of Putin’s ‘red lines’ and used the move as yet more evidence to lobby the US and European lawmakers to grant Kyiv permission to use advanced Western weapons inside Russia.
But after making rapid progress in the first two weeks of the incursion, Ukrainian advances in Kursk stalled and Kyiv’s troops have since been desperately trying to hold their position.
Meanwhile, in Eastern Ukraine, Russia’s forces are steadily grinding towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk having taken large swathes of territory in the Donetsk region in recent months.
Putin’s army took 185 square miles of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an analysis of data provided by the real-time conflict tracker from the Institute for the Study of War.
Now, with Donald Trump set to return to the White House in a matter of weeks, the intensity of the conflict is likely to increase.
Trump has famously said that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have started had he been president and claimed he could bring the conflict to an abrupt halt – without ever revealing his plans for doing so.
There are mounting concerns that Trump could push for a hasty ceasefire requiring Ukraine to cede significant portions of its territory – a prospect that leaves both sides fighting to capture as much land as possible so as to strengthen their position ahead of negotiations.
Biden’s decision to grant Ukraine the use of ATACMS in Russia could therefore be seen as an additional buttress that aims to help Kyiv’s troops maintain their foothold in Kursk to present it as a bargaining chip.
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