REVEALED: Stats boffins calculate Everton’s new chances of relegation after their 10-point deduction was reduced… but it’s particularly bad news for one of their rivals

The reduction of Everton’s 10-point penalty has dramatically altered the relegation picture within the Premier League, according to stats boffins.

The Toffees were docked 10 points by an independent commission in November for breaking spending rules in a period ending in 2021-22 after out-spending the allowed £105million losses by £19.5m. 

However, the club appealed the decision and on Monday, the Premier League announced their points deduction had been reduced from 10 to six, with the appeals board concluding the commission had made ‘legal errors’ when handing out the original punishment.

Sean Dyche’s side have risen up to 15th in the table following the news, which has seen them get four points back, although a second charge for breaching spending limits is hanging over them.

And, according to data by Twenty First Group, Everton are now statistically 11 per cent safer from relegation, with their chances of dropping to the Championship reduced to just 5 per cent from 16.

The data from stats boffins has given Sean Dyche’s side just a five per chance of relegation

Meanwhile, several teams are one per cent more likely to go down following the reduction of Everton’s points penalty. 

This includes Brentford and Crystal Palace, although the Eagles are eight points clear of the bottom three following their 3-0 victory over Burnley at the weekend.

Nottingham Forest – who themselves were charged with breaching the Premier League’s spending limits in January – have seen their chances of relegation increased by two percent, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s side having a likelihood of 14 per cent to drop into the bottom three.

The biggest impact of Everton’s appeal can be seen on Luton, with Rob Edwards’ side six per cent more likely to go down, with the Hatters third favourites for relegation with a 78 per cent chance.

They are currently four points behind Nottingham Forest, although they do have a crucial game in hand, which comes against Bournemouth on March 13.

The Hatters then face Forest at Kenilworth Road in a potentially crunch game on March 16. 

Luton are now six percent more likely to go down and have a 78 per cent chance of relegation

Nottingham Forest’s chances of dropping into the bottom three have risen by two per cent

Elsewhere, the Cherries have a one per chance of relegation, while Fulham’s likelihood of falling out of the top flight is less than one per cent. 

Meanwhile, Burnley and Sheffield United are both now 11 points from safety and the stats suggest that their hopes of survival are all but over.

Burnley have a 97 per cent chance of relegation, while the Blades are more than 99 per cent likely to head straight back down to the Championship.