Runners and riders: Who could be the next Archbishop of Canterbury after Justin Welby’s resignation over his handling of John Smyth abuse scandal

Since the year 597, when St Augustine of Canterbury was sent from Rome to convert the Anglo-Saxons, 105 men have held the post.

But for the first time in history the next Archbishop of Canterbury could be a woman.

At least one woman is among those being discussed as possible replacements for Justin Welby.

So archaic is the system for deciding a new incumbent, however, that it could be next autumn before the incoming Archbishop takes up residence at Lambeth Palace.

Among the frontrunners is the Bishop of Chelmsford, Guli Francis-Dehqani, 57. Born in Iran, she was the first minority-ethnic woman to be ordained a bishop in the UK.

Her father was the Anglican bishop of Iran, and her mother was injured in an assassination attempt on him in 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution. Her brother was murdered there by Iranian agents the following year. When she became a bishop in 2017, she said being given sanctuary in Britain gave her ‘a sense of what it is to be on the margins, and the work it takes to find a sense of belonging’.

She is admired by many for her emphasis on Christian spirituality and service, rather than programmes, targets and management-speak. But she also leans in favour of inclusion for LGBT couples which – combined with her being a woman – still arouses some controversy in the Church and could see her vetoed.

Another leading contender is Martyn Snow. The Bishop of Leicester, 56, is a married father of three who studied chemistry at Sheffield University and became the youngest diocesan bishop in the Church of England at 48.

He has been outspoken on issues of racial justice: in 2020 he was pictured ‘taking the knee’ outside Leicester Cathedral, and he has talked about ‘waking up to my whiteness’. When he abstained in a General Synod vote on blessings for gay couples, some interpreted his non-committal stance as a sign of ambition for higher office.

Graham Usher, the Bishop of Norwich, has been consistently pro-LGBT and has apologised for the harm the Church has caused to gay couples. The 53-year-old grew up in Ghana, keeps bees and has degrees in ecology and theology from Edinburgh and Cambridge. Said to be friendly with King Charles, he is also the CofE’s lead bishop for the environment, which modernisers see as a plus for attracting younger flocks.

Justin Welby has resigned as Archbishop of Canterbury over over his handling of John Smyth abuse scandal

Among the outsiders are the Bishop of Chester, Mark Tanner, and Paul Williams, the Bishop of Southwell and Nottingham, a conservative standing up to change in the Church. Two other women considered hugely effective are Rachel Treweek, the Bishop of Gloucester, and Helen-Ann Hartley, the Bishop of Newcastle.

Candidates must navigate an opaque selection process. A secretive committee called the Crown Nominations Commission will create a shortlist and undertake consultations and interviews.

Eventually the 17 voting members, including the Archbishop of York and a chairman chosen by the PM, will submit one name to No 10, to pass to the King, who officially nominates or rejects their choice.

The process can take between six to eight months, with a further period of up to three months before the sitting Archbishop formally hands over the reins.