Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit another impasse as the Kremlin rejected a seven-point plan to end the war set out by the United States that would recognise Moscow's control of Crimea and effectively freeze the frontline in place. The plan, presented by the Trump administration to European allies earlier this month, is widely seen as a land-for-peace deal that would allow Vladimir Putin to keep Ukrainian territory seized by his forces while assuring that Ukraine would not join NATO.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit another impasse as the Kremlin rejected a seven-point plan to end the war set out by the United States that would recognise Moscow’s control of Crimea and effectively freeze the frontline in place. The plan, presented by the Trump administration to European allies earlier this month, is widely seen as a land-for-peace deal that would allow Vladimir Putin to keep Ukrainian territory seized by his forces while assuring that Ukraine would not join NATO.

But Sergei Lavrov, Russia's veteran Foreign Minister, declared yesterday in a written interview with Brazilian outlet O Globo that the Kremlin would only accept a ceasefire if various strict terms are met. These include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and what he called Ukraine's 'neo-Nazi' regime, international recognition of Russian sovereignty over the four annexed Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and a restriction on the size of Ukraine's army, among other measures. 'All the commitments Kiev assumes must be legally binding, contain enforcement mechanisms and be permanent,' Lavrov wrote. 'Demilitarising and de-Nazifying Ukraine is also on the agenda, along with lifting sanctions, withdrawing lawsuits and cancelling arrest warrants, as well as returning Russian assets subjected to the so-called freeze in the West.'

But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran Foreign Minister, declared yesterday in a written interview with Brazilian outlet O Globo that the Kremlin would only accept a ceasefire if various strict terms are met. These include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and what he called Ukraine’s ‘neo-Nazi’ regime, international recognition of Russian sovereignty over the four annexed Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and a restriction on the size of Ukraine’s army, among other measures. ‘All the commitments Kiev assumes must be legally binding, contain enforcement mechanisms and be permanent,’ Lavrov wrote. ‘Demilitarising and de-Nazifying Ukraine is also on the agenda, along with lifting sanctions, withdrawing lawsuits and cancelling arrest warrants, as well as returning Russian assets subjected to the so-called freeze in the West.’

Lavrov's open rejection of the US devised plan came as Vladimir Putin's declaration of a three-day ceasefire from May 8-10 was ridiculed by Ukrainian officials and analysts as a 'trick' and 'cynical'. Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank focusing on Russian defence, pointed out that Putin likely doesn't want the threat of Ukraine air attacks to disrupt Russia's Victory Day on May 9, with the nation set to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's triumph in World War II. 'The Kremlin wants a ceasefire for those days because it can't suitably defend airspace from Ukrainian drones and they want a smooth 80th anniversary victory day parade,' she said.

Lavrov’s open rejection of the US devised plan came as Vladimir Putin’s declaration of a three-day ceasefire from May 8-10 was ridiculed by Ukrainian officials and analysts as a ‘trick’ and ‘cynical’. Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank focusing on Russian defence, pointed out that Putin likely doesn’t want the threat of Ukraine air attacks to disrupt Russia’s Victory Day on May 9, with the nation set to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s triumph in World War II. ‘The Kremlin wants a ceasefire for those days because it can’t suitably defend airspace from Ukrainian drones and they want a smooth 80th anniversary victory day parade,’ she said.

The criticism of Putin's Victory Day ceasefire comes as his forces pounded Ukraine with a hundred drones overnight. A 12-year-old girl was killed in the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, while several were wounded there and in the capital Kyiv. Russia sought to cast its proposed three-day ceasefire in May as a humanitarian pause to coincide with the Victory Day celebrations. 'Based on humanitarian considerations, the Russian side is declaring a truce during the 80th anniversary of Victory Day,' the Kremlin announced on Monday, claiming from May 8 through May 10 'all hostilities' would be stopped.' Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example. 'In the event of violations of the truce by the Ukrainian side, the Russian armed forces will give an adequate and effective response,' it added.

The criticism of Putin’s Victory Day ceasefire comes as his forces pounded Ukraine with a hundred drones overnight. A 12-year-old girl was killed in the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, while several were wounded there and in the capital Kyiv. Russia sought to cast its proposed three-day ceasefire in May as a humanitarian pause to coincide with the Victory Day celebrations. ‘Based on humanitarian considerations, the Russian side is declaring a truce during the 80th anniversary of Victory Day,’ the Kremlin announced on Monday, claiming from May 8 through May 10 ‘all hostilities’ would be stopped.’ Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example. ‘In the event of violations of the truce by the Ukrainian side, the Russian armed forces will give an adequate and effective response,’ it added.

The Kremlin announced a similar, 30-hour truce during Easter but while both sides reported a dip in fighting, they accused each other of hundreds of violations. Meanwhile, Russia's refusal to consider the US-devised peace deal is said to be angering President Donald Trump, who urged his opposite number in Moscow to 'stop shooting and sign a deal'. Trump is seeking a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine, his spokeswoman said on Monday, indicating the President did not see Putin's three-day pause as satisfactory. Trump himself has threatened to walk away from peace talks altogether if making a deal proves too difficult, setting off alarm bells in Kyiv and its European allies.

The Kremlin announced a similar, 30-hour truce during Easter but while both sides reported a dip in fighting, they accused each other of hundreds of violations. Meanwhile, Russia’s refusal to consider the US-devised peace deal is said to be angering President Donald Trump, who urged his opposite number in Moscow to ‘stop shooting and sign a deal’. Trump is seeking a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine, his spokeswoman said on Monday, indicating the President did not see Putin’s three-day pause as satisfactory. Trump himself has threatened to walk away from peace talks altogether if making a deal proves too difficult, setting off alarm bells in Kyiv and its European allies.

Though he has expressed irritation at Putin's refusal of US ceasefire proposals, he has also lambasted Zelensky, accusing him of prolonging the 'killing field' by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. But if it were accepted, the American land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-World War II order and signal to other authoritarian regimes that the world's most powerful nation will allow border to be redrawn by force. 'It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died,' said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. 'Europeans will not accept it' and Ukraine will not either, he said.

Though he has expressed irritation at Putin’s refusal of US ceasefire proposals, he has also lambasted Zelensky, accusing him of prolonging the ‘killing field’ by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. But if it were accepted, the American land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-World War II order and signal to other authoritarian regimes that the world’s most powerful nation will allow border to be redrawn by force. ‘It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died,’ said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. ‘Europeans will not accept it’ and Ukraine will not either, he said.

In an interview with Paris Match published yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed hope that the sides may now be closer to a truce than ever before, but stressed the need for 'caution,' because 'part of the equation' depends on Moscow. 'In the next eight to ten days, we will increase the pressure on the Kremlin. [¿] It's not right for all the pressure to fall on Ukraine,' he said. But if Trump truly does walk away from the negotiating table and withdraw support for Ukraine in the process, Europe may have to find a way to fill the gap and support Kyiv's military indefinitely. Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the US decides to back out of peace talks. They range from the US ceasing direct aid to Ukraine - but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv - to Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons.

In an interview with Paris Match published yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed hope that the sides may now be closer to a truce than ever before, but stressed the need for ‘caution,’ because ‘part of the equation’ depends on Moscow. ‘In the next eight to ten days, we will increase the pressure on the Kremlin. […] It’s not right for all the pressure to fall on Ukraine,’ he said. But if Trump truly does walk away from the negotiating table and withdraw support for Ukraine in the process, Europe may have to find a way to fill the gap and support Kyiv’s military indefinitely. Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the US decides to back out of peace talks. They range from the US ceasing direct aid to Ukraine – but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv – to Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons.

Any withdrawal of US military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, as Kyiv's ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons. If it were easy, Europe would 'already be doing things without America,' said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to an Associated Press reporter. No new US aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe's 'big mistake' was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking 'this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014,' when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank.

Any withdrawal of US military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, as Kyiv’s ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons. If it were easy, Europe would ‘already be doing things without America,’ said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to an Associated Press reporter. No new US aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe’s ‘big mistake’ was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking ‘this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014,’ when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank.

Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defence industry and a decades-long reliance on the US. Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia's invasion. But advanced American weapons, including air defence systems like the Patriot that are central to Ukraine's ability to limit the damage of Russian drone and missile assaults, are much harder and more costly to replace. Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin's forces invaded in February 2022. The death toll from the Russian attacks would 'inevitably' be higher without the Patriot missile systems protecting Ukraine's skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defence industry and a decades-long reliance on the US. Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia’s invasion. But advanced American weapons, including air defence systems like the Patriot that are central to Ukraine’s ability to limit the damage of Russian drone and missile assaults, are much harder and more costly to replace. Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin’s forces invaded in February 2022. The death toll from the Russian attacks would ‘inevitably’ be higher without the Patriot missile systems protecting Ukraine’s skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, which Putin has boasted was unstoppable. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid. Earlier this month, Zelensky asked to buy an additional 10 Patriot batteries, but was swiftly rebuffed by Trump. 'You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,' the US President said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defence system but the issue is not 'quality, it's quantity,' Barrie said, pointing to the larger US defence industrial base and greater US stockpiles.

The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, which Putin has boasted was unstoppable. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country’s energy grid. Earlier this month, Zelensky asked to buy an additional 10 Patriot batteries, but was swiftly rebuffed by Trump. ‘You don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,’ the US President said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defence system but the issue is not ‘quality, it’s quantity,’ Barrie said, pointing to the larger US defence industrial base and greater US stockpiles.

If Trump walks away, or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European support, it won't necessarily mean 'the collapse of Ukraine' - although Heisbourg admitted that more people will almost certainly die if the US pulls its air defences and intelligence-sharing capabilities. The analysts all agreed on one thing - Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defence, regardless of who occupies the White House. 'This issue is not a question about the next two months or the next two years. This issue is about the next two decades,' Gomart said.

If Trump walks away, or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European support, it won’t necessarily mean ‘the collapse of Ukraine’ – although Heisbourg admitted that more people will almost certainly die if the US pulls its air defences and intelligence-sharing capabilities. The analysts all agreed on one thing – Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defence, regardless of who occupies the White House. ‘This issue is not a question about the next two months or the next two years. This issue is about the next two decades,’ Gomart said.

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