SIMON WALTERS: Rays of hope for an embattled Boris Johnson
At first glance, the Survation poll is yet another blow to Boris Johnson’s standing. The public disapproval of his Government over the controversial suspension of Parliament could not be clearer.
A majority believe whichever of his Downing Street team was responsible for the reckless and totally counter-productive move should pay by losing their job.
Voters believe that, assuming he hasn’t already done so, the Prime Minister should do the decent thing and say sorry to the Queen for misleading her.
And there is little sympathy for Jacob Rees-Mogg’s squeal of protest that the Supreme Court ruling was tantamount to a ‘constitutional coup’.
At first glance, the Survation poll is yet another blow to Boris Johnson’s standing. The public disapproval of his Government over the controversial suspension of Parliament could not be clearer
A majority believe whichever of his Downing Street team was responsible for the reckless and totally counter-productive move should pay by losing their job
Voters believe that, assuming he hasn’t already done so, the Prime Minister should do the decent thing and say sorry to the Queen for misleading her
Equally, the Conservative lead over Labour – of just 3 per cent – is nowhere near enough to give Johnson the Commons majority he craves to resolve Brexit.
The Parliamentary arithmetic and political climate is so volatile it is impossible to convert each party’s poll rating into Commons seats. Suffice to say Johnson would probably be no better off than he is today. And he could lose.
And yet, the poll is far from being all bad news.
There is more than a glimmer of hope that Johnson’s strategy of holding a snap election on Brexit on the basis of ‘The People versus The Establishment’ – with him playing the heroic role of the people’s Brexit tribune – could just succeed.
For a start, there is overwhelming support for an early election from both Conservative and Labour voters.
Equally, the Conservative lead over Labour – of just 3 per cent – is nowhere near enough to give Johnson the Commons majority he craves to resolve Brexit
Mr Corbyn (pictured) is holding out against a snap election in his determination to stop the Prime Minister taking Britain out of the EU on October 31 if he cannot get a deal. But more than one in four Labour supporters say Mr Johnson should do precisely that
Second, although the Conservative lead over Labour is a mere 3 per cent, Mr Johnson’s Prime Ministerial rating is at 41 per cent – more than double the Labour leader’s dismal 18. To add insult to injury, voters would rather see inexperienced Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson in No10 than Corbyn. There is more comfort for Mr Johnson among Labour’s die hard Brexit supporters in working class strongholds like the North.
Mr Corbyn is holding out against a snap election in his determination to stop the Prime Minister taking Britain out of the EU on October 31 if he cannot get a deal. But more than one in four Labour supporters say Mr Johnson should do precisely that.
Of course, the main obstacle to Mr Johnson winning a Commons majority is neither Corbyn nor Swinson, but Tory nemesis Nigel Farage – supported by 16 per cent in the Survation poll.
Of course, the main obstacle to Mr Johnson winning a Commons majority is neither Corbyn nor Swinson, but Tory nemesis Nigel Farage – supported by 16 per cent in the Survation poll
Nearly 70 per cent of Brexit Party supporters voted Tory in the 2017 election.
If Mr Johnson could somehow get a deal and get us out on October 31, the majority of those 70 per cent could be expected to return to the Tory gulf. That would push the Conservatives up to the mid 30s and up to ten points clear of Labour. If that happened Mr Johnson would win outright.
But it is a big if.
Having allowed himself to be tied in Parliamentary knots by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP – aided and abetted by Remainer former Tory MPs – his hopes of getting a deal look slim.
In that event, the election would take place with Johnson having been forced to eat his words about leaving on October 31, ‘do or die’.
And Farage would claim – with some justification – that disaffected Tory Brexiteers should stick with him.