Six Nations title hopes are on the line for England and Scotland in Calcutta Cup clash… as Steve Borthwick’s men seek to tame rampant Finn Russell

Murrayfield will be awash with tribalism and tension on Saturday. It is make-or-break time for two ambitious teams’ Six Nations campaigns and the bookies are predicting a three-point margin. Anything could happen.

If Scotland lose, they will be out of the title race, again. If England lose, they are highly unlikely to be in the mix at the end, given that their next task will be to step into the path of the Irish Grand Slam juggernaut at Twickenham, before heading to Lyon to take on France on the final weekend.

For this 2024 instalment of the Calcutta Cup rivalry, Scotland are favourites and England should be affronted by that. The current balance of power is a damning reflection of England’s recent record in the Six Nations, which they are hell-bent on addressing and improving.

The hosts are more settled, which means they have familiar combinations and fluency. But it can’t be that having two professional teams is seen as a benefit compared to having far more – even if the number of Premiership clubs has rapidly reduced from 13 to 10, due to financial turmoil.

England have a vast array of talent to call upon. Scotland have had to shop around to assemble a formidable, multi-national squad. Their side has plenty of South African flavour, some Australian – and some English too. But head coach Gregor Townsend has expertly crafted a thrilling alliance from these disparate backgrounds.

These days, Scotland play with a real daring streak, as epitomised by their co-captain and playmaker genius, Finn Russell, who can make miracles happen – as he did at Twickenham in 2019. That was when Townsend’s men trailed 31-0 but roared back to within seconds of victory, before settling for a 38-38 draw which went straight into oval-ball folklore.

However, the uncomfortable fact for the favourites is that they have never won a Six Nations title – having last finished top of the pile in Europe’s annual championship in 1999, before the introduction of Italy. They have gone out of the last two World Cups at the pool stage. They have had so much potential which hasn’t produced a tangible return. They have had flashes – especially in recent years – of form which has made them a match for all-comers, but then invariably collapsed in a heap.

That realisation will spur them on, as will the mood of simmering outrage about being denied a win over France a fortnight ago – along with the perennial desire to beat the ‘auld enemy’, to maintain recent dominance. ‘It’s our most important game of the season,’ said Townsend.

‘This is one that we’re focused on more than the others. It probably shouldn’t be the case, but it is. It’s history, it’s emotion and we’ve seen the impact on Scottish supporters when we do manage to get a victory in this fixture so that’ll drive us on Saturday.’

As a clear sign of changing times, the perception today is of England’s blitz seeking to nullify Scottish brilliance. Operation Stop Russell is a focus for the wary visitors, who have to go hunting together this time or face being given the run-around again, as happened several times in the narrow wins over Italy and Wales.

England have won only one of their last six encounters with Scotland in Six Nations

This is the day for Steve Borthwick’s national team to show they can emerge from their Six Nations rut and be outside title contenders again. While it is still early in the evolutionary process, for the coaches immersed in so much detail and data, England expects – as always – and quite right too. This is a mismatch of resources so there should be sufficient Red Rose firepower to stand a good chance. Never mind a long journey, it’s all about now.

Look at the English motivation. One win in the last six versus these opponents. Two from five in each of the last three Six Nations campaigns. Too much mediocrity for too long. Then there’s the still-raw image of Duhan van der Merwe having the freedom of Twickenham to score a stunning solo try last year – aided and abetted by what amounted to defensive compliance.

In addition, Borthwick’s men have noted the raucous celebrations by the Scots in their stadium, as revealed on the Netflix documentary, Full Contact. It came out last month and has provided some additional fuel. ‘We’ve shown a little bit of that this week,’ said Jamie George, pointedly.

Being written off has also fanned the flames of defiance. ‘In the Calcutta Cup, we haven’t been good enough in the last couple of years,’ said George. ‘There’s been a lot of talk in the Scottish media about the fact we have no chance and we might as well not turn up. That’s absolutely fine in my eyes. This game is going to have an edge, it’s going to have a bite to it and we’re prepared for that.’

The England captain wants to honour his mother, who passed away last week, and his team-mates will be desperate to help the popular leader do so. That is an additional dimension this time, in a fixture which has become intriguing and relevant again.

England captain Jamie George wants to honour his mum’s memory with victory

Frankly, not so long ago, the notion of a rivalry was a sham. Scotland were nowhere. Between the dawn of professionalism and the fixture here in Edinburgh in 2018, the countries had played each other 23 times and Scotland had won just three of them. Now, they are aiming for a record-equalling fourth successive victory over England.

So often, miserable conditions have led to arm-wrestle encounters, but this evening it is forecast to be clear, which should allow Russell to demonstrate his artistic repertoire, if he can escape the blitz. Conversely, it should also allow Ollie Lawrence to carve up in midfield and George Furbank to justify his inclusion with some high-tempo forays into space out wide. It will be fascinating to see if England stick with an expansive approach, after defaulting to a territorial game to beat Wales.

Their pack will need to gain an advantage, because the suspicion is that parity up front would be enough for the Scots to prevail, given their greater cohesion and proven threat, with the return from injury of Blair Kinghorn adding to that.

For Borthwick, being able to deploy the brute force of George Martin from the bench may be a factor which tips this the way of the visitors. They are the underdogs and they should be inspired to make a mockery of that.