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Sweden’s daily coronavirus case increases are lower than Victoria where there’s a Stage 4 lockdown

Sweden’s daily increase of new coronavirus cases has been lower than Victoria’s – despite having no lockdowns.  

Victoria’s tally of new cases has continued to be higher than Sweden’s, even after imposing 8pm to 5am curfews on Melbourne and the neighbouring Mitchell Shire as part of strict, Stage 4 restrictions.

Three days after the start of Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’s August 2 bans on everyday life, Australia’s second most populated state recorded 725 new cases – four times the Swedish figure of 169. 

Sweden’s daily increase in coronavirus cases has been lower than Victoria’s despite having no lockdowns. Pictured are paddlers on a canal in the capital Stockholm

That was despite Victoria’s population of 6.65million being considerably lower than Sweden’s 10million.

During the first week of having an unprecedented five million Melburnians under the harshest lockdown ever seen in Australia, Sweden’s daily new case numbers were lower than Victoria’s in four out of five weekdays when data was compiled. 

On August 8, six days after Stage 4 had started, Victoria had 466 new cases compared with 356 in Sweden where a centre-left Social Democratic Party government is opting for a controversial herd immunity strategy. 

The day before, on Friday the 7th, the state had 450 new cases as opposed to 427 in Sweden. 

On August 6, a Thursday, Victoria reported 471 new positive COVID-19 tests while Sweden had 359 new cases.

The exception to the pattern was August 4, when Victoria recorded 439 new daily cases compared with 590 in Sweden. 

Victoria's tally of new cases has continued to be higher than Sweden's, even after imposing 8pm to 5am curfews on Melbourne and the neighbouring Mitchell Shire as part of strict, Stage Four restrictions

Victoria’s tally of new cases has continued to be higher than Sweden’s, even after imposing 8pm to 5am curfews on Melbourne and the neighbouring Mitchell Shire as part of strict, Stage Four restrictions

While Sweden's daily new COVID-19 numbers, on the surface, appeared to be mainly lower than Victoria's, infectious disease expert Professor Raina MacIntyre from the University of New South Wales' Kirby Institute pointed out Australia had carried out far more tests per capita than Sweden. Pictured are people outside in Stockholm

While Sweden’s daily new COVID-19 numbers, on the surface, appeared to be mainly lower than Victoria’s, infectious disease expert Professor Raina MacIntyre from the University of New South Wales’ Kirby Institute pointed out Australia had carried out far more tests per capita than Sweden. Pictured are people outside in Stockholm 

Monash University infectious diseases physician Professor Allen Cheng, who is now on a secondment with Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services, told Daily Mail Australia, Victoria had carried out 20,000 tests a day – double the 10,000 in Sweden.

While Sweden’s daily new COVID-19 numbers, on the surface, appeared to be mainly lower than Victoria’s, infectious disease expert Professor Raina MacIntyre  from the University of New South Wales’s Kirby Institute pointed out Australia had carried out far more tests per capita than Sweden.

‘You cannot directly compare the numbers,’ she told Daily Mail Australia.

‘Case numbers are a function of testing policy – Australia has had a more aggressive testing policy than Sweden.

‘Australia is doing much more testing than Sweden, so Sweden’s official numbers would underestimate the true case numbers.’

Even as the tougher lockdowns progressed, on August 8, Victoria had 466 new cases compared with 356 in all of Sweden, where a centre-left Social Democratic Party government is opting for a controversial herd immunity strategy

Even as the tougher lockdowns progressed, on August 8, Victoria had 466 new cases compared with 356 in all of Sweden, where a centre-left Social Democratic Party government is opting for a controversial herd immunity strategy

Professor MacIntyre cited Our World in Data figures showing Australia was conducting 2,749 tests per million people compared with 749 for every million people in Sweden. She supports the elimination strategy of harsher lockdowns as imposed by Victoria and New Zealand earlier in the pandemic

Professor MacIntyre cited Our World in Data figures showing Australia was conducting 2,749 tests per million people compared with 749 for every million people in Sweden. She supports the elimination strategy of harsher lockdowns as imposed by Victoria and New Zealand earlier in the pandemic

Professor MacIntyre cited Our World in Data figures showing Australia was conducting 2,749 tests per million people compared with 749 for every million people in Sweden. 

She supports the elimination strategy of harsher lockdowns as imposed by Victoria and New Zealand earlier in the pandemic.

The federal government is opting for the softer suppression strategy under the leadership of Acting Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly. 

Monash University infectious diseases physician Professor Allen Cheng, who is now on a secondment with Victoria's Department of Health and Human Services, told Daily Mail Australia Victoria had carried out 20,000 tests a day - double the 10,000 in Sweden

Monash University infectious diseases physician Professor Allen Cheng, who is now on a secondment with Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services, told Daily Mail Australia Victoria had carried out 20,000 tests a day – double the 10,000 in Sweden

Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, an advocate of the herd immunity strategy, last month described Australia’s approach as ‘selfish and self congratulatory’.

She argued the virus would only flare up again once the lockdowns were lifted. 

Sweden’s State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell is pushing for more Swedes to come into contact with COVID-19 so enough people develop immunity to it in the absence of an effective vaccine.  

The Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank, claimed the continuing surge in new Victorian case numbers highlighted how lockdowns weren’t working.

‘There are serious and legitimate questions to be asked about the effectiveness of harsh lockdown measures,’ the group’s director of policy Daniel Wild told Daily Mail Australia. 

‘The Stage 4 lockdowns in Victoria will result in a humanitarian tragedy as the scourge of mass unemployment, widespread closure of small businesses, and isolation and loneliness spread across the state.’

Daily Mail Australia compared daily updates from Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services with daily World Health Organisation updates.

Swedish data was collected on weekends, which meant data for the 24 hours to Sunday and Monday showed up as zero. 

The Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank, said the continuing surge in new Victorian case numbers highlighted lockdowns weren't working

The Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank, said the continuing surge in new Victorian case numbers highlighted lockdowns weren’t working

Victoria’s total death toll of 247 is well below’s Sweden’s 5,763.

On a per capita basis, Sweden’s death rate is the world’s eighth highest with 56.59 for every 100,000 people putting it behind Italy but ahead of the United States, a John Hopkins University league table said. 

Australia ranked 106th with 1.25 deaths per 100,000 people despite the recent fatality uptick in Victorian aged care homes. 

The total case numbers in Victoria of 14,957, as of August 10, was less than Sweden’s 82,323.

Victoria reported 331 new cases on Tuesday with a record 19 daily deaths for the second consecutive day.

The IPA estimates the state’s Stage Four lockdowns will cost the Victorian economy $3.17billion a week in economy and social activity, with 300,000 job losses.

Federal Treasury forecast a $12billion downturn over six weeks with up to 400,000 jobs gone.

‘The devastation of the lockdown measures will be with Victorians and Australians for generations,’ Mr Wild said.

VICTORIA

August 10: 322

August 9: 394 

August 8: 466 

August 7: 450 

August 6: 471 

August 5: 725 

August 4: 439

August 3: 429 

August 2: 671 

August 1: 397 

July 31: 627 

July 30: 723 

July 29: 295 

July 28: 384 

July 27: 532 

SWEDEN

August 10: Weekend data not reported

August 9: Weekend data not reported

August 8: 356 

August 7: 427 

August 6: 359 

August 5: 169 

August 4: 590 

August 3: Weekend data not reported

August 2: Weekend data not reported

August 1: 322 

July 31: 318 

July 30: 288 

July 29: 99 

July 28: 398 

July 27: Weekend data not reported

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk


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