Sweeping 68-seat majority is forecast for Boris Johnson’s Tories as opinion poll that predicted 2017 result says they will get 359 seats to 211 for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour
- YouGov ‘MRP’ analysis this evening based on tens of thousands of poll responses
- Mr Johnson’s Tories could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in 2017 election
- The Labour Party looks on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262 in 2017
Boris Johnson is set to secure a majority of 68 in the upcoming general election, a new poll revealed tonight.
The YouGov ‘MRP’ analysis released this evening is based on tens of thousands of poll responses, and shows Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election.
The Labour Party looks on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, with the Liberal Democrats on 13, up only one from the last election.
In Scotland, the SNP are set to get 43 seats, an increase of 8, with Wales’ Plaid Cymru and the Green Party remaining static with four seats and one seat.
The poll is closely watched because it accurately predicted in 2017 that former Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority.
The YouGov ‘MRP’ analysis released this evening is based on tens of thousands of poll responses, and shows Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election
The findings will be a significant boost to Mr Johnson’s campaign, but with only weeks to go until polling day, will be highly concerning for Labour strategists who are looking at the party suffering it’s second worst defeat since World War II.
The pollsters analysis shows that most of the seats changing are ones that Labour won in 2017 – but could now be taken by the Tories.
Chris Curtis, political research manager for the pollster, said: ‘YouGov’s official election MRP model currently shows the Tories with a comfortable majority with almost all of those coming at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands.
‘As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum. In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6%.
‘This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.
‘The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called Red Wall. But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.’