‘The countdown has started’ for the end of Putin’s reign, Kyiv says 

Mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion has begun the countdown to the end of Vladimir Putin’s 23-year rule of Russia, Kyiv officials have said, with one saying he has ‘lost all connection with reality’.

Despite the actions of Prigozhin and his Wagner troops, they have been given amnesty as part of a deal to end the conflict that saw armed soldiers advance within 120 miles of Moscow – in the biggest ever challenge to the Russian president.

While Putin has sought to assert control in the days since the mutiny, analysts have said Prigozhin’s insubordination, coupled with Russia’s faltering war effort, has meant the despot’s position in the Kremlin has never looked more unstable.

Ukraine is now two weeks into a counteroffensive that has made advances on three fronts in southern and eastern Ukraine, piling the pressure on Putin’s inner circle.

At a briefing in Kyiv, President Zelensky’s closest adviser Andriy Yermak said: ‘I think the countdown has started.’

‘What Ukraine has seen since 2014 has become evident for the entire world,’ he told the BBC, in reference to the invasion of the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea eight years ago by Russian-backed forces.

‘This [Russia] is a terrorist country whose leader is an inadequate person who has lost connection with reality. The world must conclude that it’s impossible to have any kind of serious relationship with that country.’

The British broadcaster said many officials in Kyiv were optimistic that the Wagner uprising, and decision to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that ultimately set the stage for people like Prigozhin to gain significant power in Moscow, will be the downfall of Putin.

One of them said his regime ‘cannot be saved’, the BBC reported.

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said he believes Prigozhin was just one of a number of powerful Russian figures opposed to the Russian president and his handling of the war in Ukraine.

Danilov said others include security forces, officials and representatives of oligarchs, who feel the invasion has greatly damaged both Russia and their own interests.

‘Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite,’ the senior Ukrainian official told the BBC, adding – when questioned – that this was not speculation, but that Kyiv ‘knows who these people are’.

This appeared to tally with reports on Wednesday that suggested Russia’s General Sergei ‘Armageddon’ Surovikin had ‘vanished’ amid claims he had advance knowledge of the Wagner revolt.

Mykhailo Podolyak, another close adviser to Zelensky, agreed with Danilov’s assessment, saying a number of competing groups want to take power in Russia.

Another official, not named by the BBC to protect their identity, predicted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov would be fired as Ukraine continues to push Moscow’s forces back.

The firing of Shoigu and Gerasimov was a key demand of Prigozhin’s when he first announced his Wagner forces were mounting a mutiny.

‘Prigozhin will get what he wanted,’ the official said, the BBC reported. ‘His political life is not finished. He won’t stay in exile in Belarus.’

Despite the actions of Prigozhin (pictured, June 24) and his Wagner troops, they have been given amnesty as part of a deal to end the conflict that saw armed soldiers advance within 120 miles of Moscow – in the biggest ever challenge to the Russian president

While Putin has sought to assert control in the days since the mutiny, analysts have said Prigozhin’s insubordination, coupled with Russia’s faltering war effort, has meant the despot’s position in the Kremlin has never looked more unstable. Pictured: Members of the Wagner PMC sit atop a tank as they leave Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24

Eyebrows were raised on Tuesday when Russia’s main domestic security agency, the FSB, said it had dropped the criminal investigation into last week’s revolt.

No charges will be brought against Prigozhin or any of the other participants, even though about a dozen Russian troops were killed in clashes.

The Kremlin had promised not to prosecute Prigozhin after reaching an agreement with him that he would halt the uprising and retreat to neighboring Belarus.

That came even though Putin vowed to punish those behind the rebellion, making it unclear exactly who the Russian despot meant he would retribute.

Asked about this U-turn by The Associated Press during a conference call with reports on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment.

Prigozhin’s escape from prosecution – at least for now – was in stark contrast to how the Kremlin has deals with anti-government protests like speaking out against the war in Ukraine or challenging Putin’s rule.

When asked about it, Peskov cited Putin’s ‘will – to prevent the events from developing according to the worst case scenario,’ along with promises and guarantees given to Prigozhin.

While officials say they are optimistic that Wagner’s mutiny will lead to the end of Putin’s 23-year rule, Kyiv has played down the impact it has had on the frontlines – saying its influence on the fighting was minimal.

‘Unfortunately, Prigozhin gave up too quickly. So there was no time for this demoralising effect to penetrate Russian trenches,’ Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN in a video published Wednesday.

As Belarus welcomed Prigozhin into exile on Tuesday, Putin moved to shore up his authority by thanking regular troops for averting a civil war.

But as Moscow announced preparations to disarm Wagner fighters, Putin’s arch-foe, jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, launched a stinging attack on the president in his first comments since the aborted mutiny by the paramilitaries. 

‘There is no bigger threat to Russia than Putin’s regime,’ he said on social media.

Putin’s supporters have insisted that his rule was not weakened by the revolt. 

Asked whether Putin’s power was diminished by the sight of Wagner’s rebel mercenaries seizing a military HQ, advancing on Moscow and shooting down military aircraft along the way, Peskov accused political commentators of exaggerating, adding that: ‘We don’t agree.’ 

The firing of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) and General Valery Gerasimov (left) was a key demand of Prigozhin’s when he first announced his Wagner mutiny

Putin himself attempted to portray the dramatic events at the weekend as a victory for the Russian army, and paint Wagner and its leader as corrupt.

‘You de facto stopped civil war,’ Putin told troops from the defence ministry, National Guard, FSB security service and interior ministry gathered in a Kremlin courtyard to hold a minute’s silence for airmen slain by Wagner.

In a separate meeting with defence officials, Putin confirmed that Wagner was wholly funded by the Russian federal budget, despite operating as an independent company, adding that in the past year alone since the assault on Ukraine, Moscow had paid the group 86.262 billion rubles (about $1 billion) in salaries.

The feud between Wagner and the army had escalated for months, with Prigozhin making increasingly scathing statements against the generals’ handling of the offensive in Ukraine, blaming them for thousands of Russian losses.

Prigozhin frequently launched expletive-ridden tirades against Shoigu and Gerasimov, saying his troops were not being provided enough ammunition.

Russian officials have been trying to put the crisis behind them for three days.

But, questions remain over how the Kremlin allowed the violence of its operation in Ukraine to spill back into Russia.

Meanwhile, Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko has been seeking credit for stepping in to mediate Wagner’s U-turn on the road to Moscow, and on Tuesday he criticised Russia’s handling of the issue.

Talking to his own military officials, Lukashenko said Prigozhin was arriving in Belarus on Tuesday, and revealed that he had urged Putin not to kill the rogue mercenary.

‘I said to Putin: we could waste him, no problem. If not on the first try, then on the second. I told him: don’t do this,’ Lukashenko said, according to state media.

In his address, Putin also stressed that the revolt had not forced Russia to withdraw any of its units from Ukraine, where fighting continued as Kyiv’s brigades pursued their counteroffensive in their nation’s east and south.

Ukrainian servicemen check their T-72 tank at a position in the Donetsk region on June 25

The bloody conflict is now 16 months old, with mass casualties on both sides and a rising civilian toll.

Also on Tuesday, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said it had evidence that Russian troops had summarily executed at least 77 detained civilians.

‘It is a war crime… it’s also a gross violation of international human rights law,’ said Matilda Bogner, head of the mission.

Meanwhile, the United States announced a new $500 million tranche of arms to bolster Ukraine’s mounting counteroffensive, including armoured vehicles, precision munitions and mine-clearing equipment.