We all know it’s coming.
For months Ukraine’s generals have been hunched over maps, studying intelligence, and shuffling the pieces around as they try to come up with a plan to win their country back.
Meanwhile Kyiv’s allies have been ransacking their store-cupboards for any and every spare bit of kit that might help.
The moment of truth is now just around the corner. Russia’s winter offensive has all-but run out of steam. Ukraine’s muddy ground is starting to harden.
Soon, it will be time for the counter-attack.
Here, MailOnline analyses the what, where, when and how of the coming offensive, and reveals why it will decide the future of Ukraine…
Ukrainian soldiers fire targets on the front line in the direction of the city of Ugledar, Donetsk, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on April 18, 2023
Ukrainian soldiers fire targets on the front line in the direction of the city of Ugledar, Donetsk
WHAT IS THE PLAN?
Ukraine is thought to be mustering up to 100,000 men into at least 12, but perhaps as many as 18 combat brigades to take on the Russians.
They are thought to have been given around 200 Western tanks, 800 armoured vehicles and 150 artillery guns to arm nine of those brigades – meaning they could field up to 400 tanks, 1,600 vehicles and 300 guns in total if they plan to build nine more.
Russia’s status is less clear. Based on leaked casualty figures, Putin could have as few as 100,000 men or as many as 290,000 in Ukraine.
The same leaks suggest he only has around 500 tanks left on the battlefield, but may be pulling more from storage. The number of armoured vehicles and artillery guns is not clear.
Ukraine’s battle plans are a closely guarded secret but Mick Ryan, a general who recently retired from the Australian army, told MailOnline that Kyiv has three broad options.
First, they could go with a single big attack, using everything they’ve got; second, they could split that force between simultaneous attacks in the south and east; or third, they could decide on smaller-scale attacks in both the south and east, which are not coordinated.
General Stephen Twitty, retired from the US military, believes Ukraine will go with option three – a tactic he refers to as ‘eating the apple one bite at a time.’
‘Ukraine will go with what has worked for them in the past,’ he said. ‘What the Ukrainians have been successful at doing is small-scale manoeuvres using infantry, armour and artillery, to attack Russian forces in small areas, and gain ground.’
General Ryan believes it will be a mixture of options two and three.
A large-scale attack is unlikely, he predicts, because it is hard to organise and easy for the Russians to spot and defend against – but he believes Ukraine’s plan will look unlike anything we’ve seen so far.
‘This is going to look very different because the challenge is different,’ he said. ‘They’re going to have to breach obstacle zones which they haven’t done before.
‘One thing the Ukrainians have mastered in this war is surprising us.’
Ukrainian soldiers fire mortar shells towards Russian positions near Bakhmut
Ukraine will be hoping they can surprise Russian units preparing for a counterattack. Russian president Vladimir Putin (L) speaks with the head of Russia’s army, Valery Gerasimov (R)
WHERE WILL UKRAINE TARGET?
The Russians believe Melitopol – a small city in southern Ukraine captured during the first days of the war – is the most-likely target.
Taking it back would break the ‘land bridge’ between Putin’s forces in the south and east, open up the road to re-taking Mariupol, and put Crimea within HIMARS range.
And in recent weeks Ukraine has stepped up bombardment of military targets in the city with long-range rockets and artillery, seeming to confirm those suspicions.
Attacks into the eastern Luhansk region are also likely, as Ukraine seeks to relieve pressure on places like Bakhmut and take back its industrial heartlands in the Donbas.
But all may not be as it seems.
Surprise will be the key to victory, General Ryan says, because Russia does not have enough men to defend its entire 750-mile frontline.
And the men it does have vary hugely in quality, from elite paratroopers to conscripts with barely a day’s training.
That means the line will have weak spots, and Ukraine’s route to victory lies in finding and exploiting them.
If they can deceive the Russians into placing their best units around a city they actually have no plans of attacking, that will help.
General Twitty added: ‘You’re talking about 800 miles of defensive lines, there is no army out there that can [cover] 800 miles. The key will be to find weak spots in that line.’
WHEN WILL THE ATTACK BEGIN?
The simple answer is: We don’t know. But we do have some clues.
First, an attack is unlikely so long as the ground is muddy. Ukraine’s turf freezes in winter, thaws to a slush in early spring, then re-hardens as the weather warms – generally in late April and early May.
Second, Ukraine is unlikely to attack until it has received all of the weapons it has been promised and until its troops have been trained to use them – a process that is expected to complete around the same time.
But a third element, General Ryan and General Twitty both say, will be getting the logistics in place to sustain the offensive once it gets going.
Given how many different systems Ukraine now operates, that will be extremely complicated – and how long it will take is anyone’s guess.
‘My feeling is they will not go until the logistics are in place,’ General Twitty said.
‘Sustainment is going to be key. That means spare parts, fuel, ammunition.
‘Success will depend on their ability to take all of this new equipment, put it together and make it work for them on the battlefield.’
A Ukrainian service member gestures to another soldier driving a captured Russian T-72 tank, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, in the liberated village of Lukianivka
HOW WILL UKRAINE CARRY OUT THE ATTACKS?
Starting last year, Russian forces began constructing lines of tank traps, trenches, minefields and barbed wire fences that now stretch the entire length of the frontline.
Ukraine’s first task will be to breach that line.
For that, they have been given mine clearing vehicles, breaching charges, hydraulic bridges, and bulldozers.
Speed will be vital. Russian artillery will be pre-sighted at spots on the line, and lingering too long will mean shells come crashing down on top of them.
Once through the line, they will have to take on whatever Russian troops have been left to defend it.
General Ryan expects these will be conscripts, Wagner mercenaries, and other low-skilled soldiers who Russia views as expendable.
Next will come Russia’s mobile defence – units who sit away from the front but are primed to rush into battle whenever and wherever the barricades are breached.
General Ryan believes Russia will use whatever elite troops it has left for this task, such as marines and paratroopers.
Provided Ukraine can hold them off, the next task will be consolidating their forces and attacking again as quickly as possible – generating momentum which could lead to a rout.
‘You want to catch the Russians off guard, generate shock and exploit that,’ General Ryan says. ‘If you can do that over and over again, you can make a breakthrough.’
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky addresses a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (not pictured) following their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, 20 April 2023
Ukrainian servicemen return from heavy fighting amid Russia?s attack on Ukraine, close to Bakhmut, Ukraine, April 15, 2023
WHAT IS ZELENSKY’S GOAL?
President Zelensky has made his aim clear: To push Russia out of every bit of occupied terrain, up to and including Crimea.
That may be the ultimate goal, but almost nobody expects this offensive to reach all the way to the southern peninsula. So what can we expect?
General Ryan says the goal for Ukraine should be to recapture large portions of its south and east from Russia, in a way that makes it obvious it has regained the initiative.
For General Twitty, the aim should be to make sure whatever territory they recapture stays in their hands and isn’t immediately taken back.
‘Last year the Ukrainians took back Kherson, and they took back part of Kharkiv. They consolidated their gains, and they held onto them,’ he said.
‘Their goals this time should be the same: To take back swathes of territory, which is success within itself, but then to hold on to those gains.’
Both generals expect the war to last beyond the end of this year, so another key goal will be convincing Ukraine’s Western allies that all the gear they donated was worth it – because Kyiv will need more to get through 2024.
And if Zelensky wants to keep his promise to liberate Crimea, then he will need even more again – perhaps including fighter jets and naval vessels.
He will have to rely on success during this offensive to inspire Western leaders to donate that kit, and to put his troops in a good position for any future assault.
If Ukraine manages to pull that off, then total victory over Russia is on the cards. But failure may mean that door shuts forever.
The fate of Ukraine, and the end of the war, will be decided in the coming months.
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Read more at DailyMail.co.uk