Fighter pilots call it the ‘flash-to-bang’ window. The time interval between the detection of a major threat – ‘the flash’ – and our response to neutralise it – ‘the bang’.
In that critical period, decisions must be made up through the chain of command, all the way to the PM, to approve actions and tackle the threat effectively.
If a ballistic or hypersonic missile aimed at London was fired from a base in the Russian Urals, the flash-to-bang time would be under 30 minutes – the time it takes from the instant our sophisticated satellite warning systems detect an overseas enemy missile launch, to the moment we intervene before impact.
Today, our best hope would be Britain’s Quick Reaction Alert [QRA] – several RAF Typhoon jets based at RAF Coningsby or Lossiemouth scrambled to immediately intercept the missile. Pilots are on 30 minutes’ notice to move but are usually airborne in half that time – ready for just such a nightmare scenario.
As a former defence minister on the duty roster, I had to approve take off on more than one occasion – usually in response to Russian aircraft buzzing our airspace. Today, the air threat looks far more hostile, complex and unpredictable. Brave though RAF pilots are, the QRA alone is simply inadequate to keep us safe.
The latest generation of long-range missiles now travel faster (moving to hypersonic speeds), often on a parabola that takes them to the edge of space. In salvos, that would simply overwhelm any manned-aircraft response.
London is now vulnerable, as is every other city in the UK, along with our critical national infra-structure such as ports, airports and nuclear power stations.
It’s easy to dismiss the likelihood of such an attack. Surely any state striking the UK would immediately receive the wrath of Nato.
A Russian nuclear drill. London is now vulnerable, as is every other city in the UK
Israel’s iron dome defence system intercepts rockets from the Gaza Strip
But what if it was a non-state actor? What if Iran gifted a Sejjil missile (range 2,500km) to an extremist militia in Libya and they then mounted an attack?
Or the Wagner group of Russian mercenaries used a low-flying drone to deliver the same payload, launched from a fishing vessel in the English Channel? This is the new face of modern warfare. And right now we have no adequate air defence.
The reality is our world is getting more dangerous, not less, but we seem to be in denial about what to do.
We have enjoyed three decades of relative peace since the end of the Cold War and can’t quite believe it might all unravel.
But it is unravelling. Authoritarianism is on the rise as the West looks ever more hesitant and divided. China, Russia and Iran are aligning, taking advantage of our timidity and the fast-changing nature of warfare.
Look at how air defence has been so critical in Ukraine and Israel, which have suffered repeated attacks from mass volleys of Russian and Iranian missiles and drones.
Britain would be crippled if we experienced anything of this order. And to suggest we are not vulnerable to some form of similar attack over the next five years would be a dereliction of duty.
In the decades since the end of the Cold War, we have relied on the Americans as our invincible military allies. We can rely on them no longer, writes Tobias Ellwood
Britain urgently needs a layered air defence system akin to Israel’s Iron Dome defences and its associated anti-missile systems.
If we do not do everything it takes to install a similar air defence model, we will undoubtedly pay a horrific price, and the British people will rightly ask why we did not act sooner. There is no greater priority for Government – not even the health service or education.
Yet it is one that is constantly ignored. Britain’s defence spending is about 2.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product [GDP]. Take the cost of our nuclear Trident deterrent out of that budget and the level falls to around 1.6 per cent.
That puts us approximately on a par with Romania or Italy, and far behind more pro-active European countries such as Poland. Yet Britain is still seen as the bulwark of European democracy, the nation that will always fight for freedom.
The awful truth is that, with a dearth of stalwart political leadership determined to defend our way of life, we are no bulwark. Our history as the country that stood alone against Nazism will count for nothing if we do not shore up our defences.
In the decades since the end of the Cold War, we have relied on the Americans as our invincible military allies. We can rely on them no longer.
That was brought home to me at the 75th anniversary commemoration of the D-Day landings, when I met Donald Trump in Portsmouth. He surprisingly admitted how little he knew of the scale of the American commitment and sacrifice in liberating the continent – saying he did not want to see Americans bail out Europe for a third time.
Trump regards Europe as wealthy enough to look after its own security. His focus lies elsewhere – notably with China and heading off a potential invasion of Taiwan.
He has a point. Why should America continue to guarantee European security when so many Nato countries have for decades avoided spending even 2 per cent GDP on defence?
My experience in the defence ministry showed me that most people in UK Government are still in denial about the ‘threat matrix’ – the list of active threats, and the likelihood and scale of impact – of any attack. It has never looked more dangerous or more complex since 1945.
Successive governments have allowed our defence budget to wither. But with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and other countries in the Middle East and Africa openly pursuing a very different vision of our world order, this must now change.
Since 2019, I’ve called for defence spending to increase to 3 per cent.
I’m now of the view that even this is simply not enough and we should return to Cold War levels of at least 4 per cent to upgrade our defences and meet the security challenges that are inevitably coming over the hill.
Without robust security, our entire economy is vulnerable and if that’s impacted, then there is no money in the Treasury’s coffers for any government department – let alone defence.
And top of the list must be a multi-layered anti-missile system, or Britain is defenceless. There is much to be learned from how Israel and indeed America defend their skies.
I’m sure if British people were fully aware of how vulnerable we now are, how threatening the storm of war is – there would be a greater outcry to spend more on defence.
I would encourage every reader to demand from their MP and the Government that Britain spends more on our security in order to keep us safe, beginning with a national air defence system over our skies. We have to act before it’s too late.
Tobias Ellwood was chairman of the parliamentary defence committee from 2020 to 2023.
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